Reviewed previously in WRWM, this plan looks to follow favourites on a target profit per day basis and stopping at a winner. This system is favourite based and not betting forecast favourite based as Tony’s system is ( live market favourites and Favourites in the betting forecasts in publications such as the Racing Post and Daily Mail are never guaranteed to be one and the same.
The Sir Racing System takes this target profit per day staking and limits itself to 3 races on a stop at a winner basis. If the first race loses, we look to retrieve stakes on the next bet as well as our target profit for the day. The Sir Racing System uses Fibonnaci numbers to determine its races and is a system I have been monitoring from the beginning of this year. How has it performed and what are the positives and negatives? The system boasts a 73% strike rate and now you know why.Whenever you see unnaturally high strike rate claims from betting systems presume it’s either a lie (glossy brochure boys), or some form of dutching OR a target profit per day stop at a winner system.
The system has had some 56 winning days where target profit has been met since January 1st. This is not 56 days out of 31(Jan), 29 (Feb), 31(March) 17 (at time of writing – April) because there is a stipulation to avoid heavy going and also where there are insufficient meetings there are no bets. There were 2 losing days in January, 7 losing days in February, 8 losing days in March and 3 to date in April.
Let’s work this out using a target profit of £50: 56 winning days bring in a profit of £2,800. But how much have our losses been (if we write off our daily losses instead of chasing them to the next day – not advised if you hit a run of 3 losing days as happened in February with 2 odds on shots of 10/11 and 4/9 leaving the prospect of underpant changingly big stakes!) Losses to SP have totalled £2,071 using loss retrieval over a cycle of 3 races in one day looking to win £50 for the day (NOT per race). So we have a profit and a current run of 10 winning days up to time of writing is helping keep heads above water.
Negatives
As far as I can see, there is no price capping here (note with Tony’s system he will not bet below 2/1 or 3.2 on Betfair – this safety factor ensures that, if the loss retrieval aspect of the system comes into play, stakes are controlled (and thus losses are controlled in the betting cycle).
There have been occasions where the 1st bet at 9/4 loses and the price of the next selection is 2/9. Let’s do the calculations. In order to win £50 on our first bet, we multiply £50 by 4 and divide by 9. Stakes therefore are £22.22 This selection loses.
Bet 2 – we look to return our lost stake of £22.22 and target for the day of £50. Total target for bet 2 is £72.22. The price of the selection is 2/9. In order to win our target we multiply £72.22 by 9 and divide by 2 = £325! The likelihood is for success of course with such a short price but that’s not the point. Stakes have shot up, and really we must be looking at what happens if this one loses. Always remember in racing there is no such thing as a sure thing – ever! Far better for me to look to retrieve lost stake only – this reduces the stake on bet 2 to £100 – far more manageable. Heavy odds-on selections appearing as part of a loss retrieval exercise spells trouble which is why Tony’s 2/1 limit makes greater sense.
Conclusion
Yes we have a profit and a nice one at that but it doesn’t tell the whole story. Stakes in some cases (as illustrated above) have been far too large in proportion to target profit. This is a workable system but you must place a comfort zone regarding stakes. You could do some preplanning if you notice a selection is likely to be heavy odds on and perhaps leave that day alone unless that selection is the first in a cycle (just hope it wins!) This aspect needs to be addressed, in all honesty, with all of these target profit per day stop at a winner systems and it is not the sole reserve of the Sir Racing System!
Tony Levine’s www.computapik.com
Another variation on the same theme of backing favourites and stopping at a winner, Computapik does not specify a target profit, rather it uses a 3 bet cycle with specific staking. Again a price cap re not backing odds-on shots.
A visit to www.computapik.com shows the author is being truthful in his presentation of said results. As you have read in recent newsletters this system has fluctuated in and out of profit. The problem? Well the staking plan involves 9 points which are lost if any of the 3 bets do not win. Because in this case we are not looking to win a target profit per day these losing 9 points can have a big impact on profit and loss.
My tester’s comments highlight the frustrations with this particular system: “In the four months of testing the system has remained unimpressive, atone stage showing a loss of 36 points and throughout the test period no significant gain. The last two weeks however has seen it move into a profit of 16 points. To me, as yet it remains totally unconvincing despiteclaims on the website of ‘Amazing Results’. The results hide the fact that each loss is a loss of 9 points and they also pointlessly state if a horse has been come 2nd or 3rd when in fact this is also a loss of 9 points. Another way they mask the total truth is by not stating a winning selection is a joint favourite which would result in again reducing the day’s winnings. So I would sum up that the site is far from transparent in the way it shows it’s results but to give the system a fair test period carry out further testing to see if there is significant improvement during the flat season”
Bottom line
So what have we learned? Well if we are looking to win a target profit per day solely using unnamed favourites (or 2nd favourites in the case of the Melchior system) it would be wise, if using loss retrieval as part of a daily betting cycle, to know in advance the projected worse case scenario of all bets losing. Odds on shots are clearly bad for your wealth with a system such as this so this is where Tony’s idea scored highly. Stopping at a winner (or if target profit is made) is the ideal scenario. Negatives? These systems, by necessity, require an ability to be reactive to circumstances/wins/losses. I suppose with the Computapik system, the straight staking allows for bets to be placed and forgotten. All in all there is definite potential in a target profit per day system and if you were to pursue this avenue, the above points should be noted. Why not paper trade a system of your own or take Tony’s experiences and advice into account as he has made this form of betting work – and how!