Could you really “Make Over £7,846 Betting on Premiership Football in 12 weeks or less Guaranteed”?
A lot of readers will have received the Premiership Bet offer from A D Associates recently, and have asked if it lives up to its promises. Here’s what our tester had to say, having tried the betting strategy. He wants to remain anonymous, but I’d like to thank him for his time and effort.
The Promises:
- Make money betting on premiership football “£27,879 Last Season”
- “You will be shown exactly how to calculate this simple bet”.
- You will see proof of past success “Yes complete proof.
- I will get “A master class in football betting.”
- “You don’t even have to pick the teams! The methods you will learn will pick them for you.”
A brief overview suggested that “this simple bet” would be quite complicated. I do the calculations and produce a table, which tells me the 5 home teams most likely to win on Saturday. This takes an hour, which I could reduce to 30 minutes with practice but doubt if the 15 minutes the publisher claims is possible.
Next step – enter these 5 selections on the long list Fixed odds coupon. I write out a trial form as per the clear and precise instructions supplied, and paper trade.
The system claims to predict 5 home wins accurately (apparently). You then place an accumulator using tne top 3 predictions, applying the accumulated winnings from all matches that result in a 1-1 draw using one coupon and all matches that have a 2-1 results on a second coupon.
The minimum cost is 5p a line, for 47 lines for English football. This costs £4.84 per coupon or £9.68 for the two coupons. It is very difficult to work out what you “could win”. The publishers say that on average there will be between 8 and 25 winning lines of either 1-1 or 2-1 results. So what actually happened on the 25th March?
I did the ‘simple calculations’. Bearing in mind I only have a degree level experience of statistical analysis I may have got this wrong!
The 5 most likely home wins are Barnsley, Notts Forest, Cardiff, Southend and Wolves.
I choose the top three. Remember all three must prove wins for the bet to work at all!
The actual results were:
Barnsley 0-0
Notts Forest 3-1
Cardiff 0-0
Southend 3-1
Wolves 1-3
This is a total loss. Two correct out of 5 or 40% does not represent high certainty!
Early days… and I may have made mistakes. Our accumulated winnings will then go forward to be put on lines where the outcome was 1-1 draw or a 2-1 home win.
Two coupons each with 47 lines – that’s 94 lines in all. If successful how many winning lines would we of had on Saturday 26th March?
The Answer is 5 out of 94. About 4.5%.
There were 1-1 results at Brighton, Ipswich, Leicester and Port Vale.
There was a 2-1 at Bury.
I now know how to put on a 2 part bet. Both parts had to work to win. Neither part worked. They give examples where they are placing £500 bets using this method -hmmmm!
An assessment of 0/10 of this system at this time would seem a little over generous!
This AD package came with lots of freebies. I found a simple football bet. I jotted this down, found relevant teams and subsequently looked at what the outcome would have been. Had I backed it with £40 I would have been £110 better off! I may try that for real next week!
Sat 25/03: reviewed the bet. It would have lost – only 2 of the 5 teams won. Also using 3 team accumulator no way was a win possible.
1/4/06: I was a lot quicker to work out the bet this week. I decided to include the top Scottish fixtures as well. The 5 teams most likely to win at home were Motherwell, St Johnstone, Mansfield, Reading and QPR.
Results would have been better. The top three teams won. By my calculations they would have increased a 10p a line stake to 35p a line. There were 5 1-1 score draws at an odds average of 4 a line which would produce a total of £7.13. There were 5 2-1 scores draw at 7 producing £12.25. So the return on 122 lines at 10p a line (£12.20) would have been £19.38 making a profit £7.18. The book says that “on average there would be 8-25 winning lines”
The Trixie and Football Trading Free Strategies: the package also includes a simple trixie bet and a football trading strategy, which mirrors the Football Cash Generator. Our tester tried it. Here’s what he found:
“I tried the trixie bet that won last week. The top away teams were Chelsea, Arsenal and Liverpool. Chelsea drew but Arsenal and Liverpool won. Stake: £10 a line costing £40. As a consolation I got £28 back. I am told this bet works 80% of the time, it is simple and easy to place and I will give it another go. (Editor’s note – I suspect this trixie bet involves backing 3 away teams priced at less than evens – a trixie being a 3 match accumulator – this system has been around for years).
For two weekday matches I tried a free simple football betting strategy. At the beginning of a match you “lay the draw”. You lose if a draw but gain if either side win. Reverse your bet to backing the draw when the first goal is scored – bet on the draw at higher odds than the lay to neutralise liability and create a profit on all outcomes.
Middlesbrough v Basel: I intended to equalise my bet immediately the first goal was scored but next time I looked Basel were two up! I went to Betfair – the odds had swung my way. To ensure that whatever the outcome I would win I bet on the draw. I had laid the draw for £100 at 3.35 giving a liability of £235. I later bet £15.00 on the draw at 14.00 giving me £85 if either team won or a £10.00 loss if it was a draw.
Was this a one off? I managed a £22 profit the next night on Crystal Palace v Watford.
On Saturday I chose Fulham v Portsmouth and Bolton v Man U. I placed both bets before the matches started and then found that the Fulham match did not have live betting. I was therefore stuck with the “not a draw” situation.
Lesson to be learnt: bet on matches as soon as they are in play to ensure that they are available to bet on. Bolton scored first but no shift in the draw odds. ManU equalised – but I’d opposed the draw! 1-1 at half time. 75th minute – still a draw! Arrrgh! Unless I got out I would lose £133 on my £50 stake. Then MU score and the odds change. Lay the draw at 4.5 liability £133. Bet on the draw at 12 profit £40.00 Phew!
(Editor’s note – please email me if you would like more on this bet)
Week 3: The following teams emerged as ‘highly likely’ home winners: Oldham, Southend, Liverpool, Rangers and Bristol Rovers.
We select 3 of the teams as an accumulator bet which will then be applied to all lines on a coupon with the result 1-1 and all lines on another coupon with the outcome 2-1.
I tried something different. Rather than place the fullblown coupon bets I placed a trixie with the top three teams. I’ll compare the trixie with the result I would have got from placing the coupon bets to the same cost.
A TRIXIE – calculated on the three teams winning. If all the teams win the bets become accumulators. The total of aXb, aXc, cXb, aXbXc (editor’s note – for clarification the x is multiplication (in football circles the x also denotes draw)) would payout if all teams win. If any of the three teams lose then the lines with them in become void. Now the advantage is that if two teams win and one loses then there is still a return from one line.
E.g. If team “a” lose then the line cXb would still payout giving a partial refund of the stake.
What happened? Trixie on the top teams, Oldham, Liverpool, Southend.
Oldham then lost at home, Liverpool and Southend won. Of the two teams I did not include – Rangers won and Bristol Rovers lost. If I had gone with the full 2 coupon bet at £0.40 a line, and backed 50 lines on each coupon I would have lost £40.00!
The second part of the coupon bet relies on the first part of the bet being successful which it wasn’t. It needs a number of matches with the score line 1-1 and 2-1. Within the 50 backed on each coupon, there were 5 1-1s and 6 2-1s. This would have paid out about £8.00 profit on coupon 1 and £38 profit on coupon 2 making a total of £46.00 profit had the accumulator proved successful.
My Trixie would have paid £101.20 or £61.20 profit if I had backed it for £10 a line making a £40 total stake. Much better value! And the slightly better news is that of the £40 stake it returned me £22.50, so my loss on this was reduced to £17.50
Over the past three weeks the whole football bet system has failed to deliver twice!
Summary: A&D recommend a complicated 2-coupon accumulator bet. Instead I have been taking the top three predictions and placing them as a Trixie. By week 3 the Trixie is showing a miniscule profit while the coupon bets are showing a considerable loss.
So what’s the bottom line on the AD Associates’ service?
“I am impressed with Pro Select,the people behind the football bet. The literature is clear and friendly and they have just sent me a newsletter with a simple system for betting on Greyhounds! Had I have applied it to yesterdays results and I would have been £102 up. They seem like a reliable and clever bunch.”
For those of you interested in receiving further information on the other selection strategies in this article (which are available free elsewhere) – I would be happy to enlighten you – drop me an email at whatreallywins@yahoo.co.uk.
AD Associates offer a 20 Times your money back guarantee lasting for 12 weekend matches. Further more “if you are still not convinced it doesn’t do precisely as promised and produces at least 20 times your money, simply just return it and we’ll happily refund you!”
Our tester hasn’t reaped his £640 per week (part of the £7846… in 12 weeks or less).
WARNING: If you are going to purchase this package, I would check that the guarantee holds up. AD Associates publish business opportunity packages that have similar seemingly strong guarantees. Unfortunately, the small print is often used to refuse a refund – so be warned!
The added bonuses are in no way valued at £487 (perhaps AD Associates would like to value some stuff I’ve got lying around the house!) – the DVD’s on the history of racing and Lester Piggott are not connected with making money.
OK, bear in mind that our tester was a novice. We’re also coming to a part of the season where results are unpredictable due to a number of factors such as relegation, pushing for champion league’s spot, 4th place, and some teams have nothing to play for.
As it stands, I would suspect the £7,489 in 12 weeks is exaggerated, and based upon a much bigger betting bank than the working man could afford to risk. We will continue to monitor and update as our tester gains more experience.
AD Associates’ The Premiership Bet
Details: £69 plus £3.00 p&p to AD Associates of 78 York street London W1H 1DP