SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE

LAY TIPSTERS

http://www.quietachievers.co.uk/

Run by Brian Morgan, the service proved profitable for the year 2008 and so far has been, erm, quiet but has still realised a profit.

January 6/9 winning lays, 1.08 points profit.

February 12/13 winning lays, 7.5 points profit.  March to 20th 13/17 winning lays, 1.25 points loss – currently 10 consecutive winning lays after a horrible start to the month.

Percentages have been hit by trying to drive down the price of advices. Average SP of all advices in 2009 is 4/1.

Slow growth on the banks at just 13.5% profit combined. Yes, very slow, but worthy of inclusion in the portfolio, if not as a standalone system.

BACK TIPSTERS

http://www.pro-info.co.uk/

A generally quiet period for this service since the last newsletter, due in no small part to inclement weather affecting ground. One part of the service is the “notebook” horses which are handicap specific – seven bets were issued from the notebook during this period that produced three winners at 7-2 (from 11-2) 4-1, 9-4, 2nd 4-1 and three losers.

The service was launched in August 2008 and is currently showing a level stake profit of £3,812.50 to a £100.00 level stake at SP.

http://www.thetradingplan.co.uk/

The Trading Plan subscription service was launched in January 2009 after the success of the eBook which although very impressive, some members found difficult to follow, especially the live betting.  Starting with £2,800.00 profit to £100 level stakes since its launch, you do need to monitor prices to make sure a potential selection hits its target price.  As mentioned last month, those horses that do not meet the target price are actually winning – amongst those are prices at odds of 8-1, 3-1, 10-1,11-4, 14-1, 11-1, 20-1, 5-1,7-2.

The results on the trading plan website pertain to the eBook and NOT the tipping service for the market movers, so please bear that in mind. The selections listed above have all been proofed to me in advance.  With the relative success of the Cheltenham Festival Selections, I believe Martin Blakey is doing a preview for the Aintree Festival. I am not sure whether this will be free to view (I hope so) or charged for. I suspect details will be on his website soon.  Just a note – The Trading Plan (you remember – the 16/1 system for handicap races) has, historically, a better strike rate over the Flat season than the jumps.  So make use of this strategy if you can, and keep an eye on my market movers in the blog.

http://www.kachinaracing.co.uk/

After reading about some of the eye-watering charges of tipsters, I thought I’d focus on a service which offers extremely good value for money.

Kachina Racing operate a number of services:

Pay As You Win

There is a £20 joining fee for this service, with each member forwarding £5 for every winning tip.  After a poor February by Chris Beek’s standards, he has excelled with eight winners out of 13 for the period 25th February to date. Of course it is in his best interests to excel due to the nature of the service.  Using £100 win and £50 each way single stakes, a bank starting at zero has grown to nearly £2,500 which is excellent – more quality than quantity it would seem.  Again, the low entry cost nature of this particular service may appeal to those averse to forking out four figure sums in advance. Free non obligation opt out facility allows you to stop at any time.

MBS Service

Is predominantly a progressive laying service that began on the 11th February. Since that time a £100 starting bank has grown to £442. This lay service looks to be professionally thought out as regards staking and exposure, allowing people to begin with a relatively small sum and grow that amount slowly. Every time the betting bank reaches £600, you are advised to bank £500 and start again with £100.

System Bets

This service is no longer taking on members.

Eye Catchers

Weekly reports on horses who have captured Chris Beek’s eye, this service augurs well for the future. This is predominantly an each way service and pinpoints horses, which Chris has flagged up via reports every Monday and email alerts of runners that day.  Recent winners at 9/4, 4/5, 9/4, 7/2 and 6/5 to date with an each way 2nd and 2 unplaced each way selections and a 20/1 unplaced.

Value Seeker

£50 ‘til the end of the year, this has been a very good performer since the year start, showing a 15-point profit since 1st January. This service can be characterised by the odd losing run as prices (as the title suggest) are generally bigger.

As with all of his services, the focus is very much on the Flat so we will get a clearer picture of likely future performance once the Flat proper has begun. As things stand the Value Seeker has nabbed two winners at 15/2, five each way placed horses at prices ranging from 4/1 to 8/1, and nine unplaced selections (some of which were Cheltenham horses at 20/1 and 33/1).  Kachina Racing offers a whole gamut of services at low entry costs and realistic profit potential, even to conservative stakes. The service also comprises a Flat Preview 2009 with detailed analysis of over 500 horses in 70 yards. These are detailed tomes, accompanied by specialist supplements for the classics in April and May.

BACKING SYSTEMS WITH POTENTIAL

http://www.betexprofits.net/

One of many methods in which to profit from place only betting is to use accumulator betting which is the key determinant to this system’s success. This is a “follow the live money” on Betfair system and seeks to maximise returns by rolling over profits and stakes in the hope of getting a run of at least five winners in a row.  The strategy can be adaptive to any betting system with a high strike rate.

http://www.computapik.com/

One of the “stop at a winner” favourite backing systems, of which there are many. This system showed a profit last year, is simple to operate, and should replicate performance again this year.  Utilising a nine-point staking plan, Computapik selects three horses per day to back as long as they meet the correct criteria, and we stop at a winner.  It differs from the Sir Racing System in that it avoids odds on shots, which is why it is my pick of the “stop at a winner” systems available.  I am currently experimenting on my own “stop at a winner” target profit per day system using Fibonacci numbers – I’ll keep you informed on how I get on!

CURRENT TRIALED SYSTEMS

The NH Super Trend Spotter

From http://www.mdprofessionalsportsbetting.co.uk/ I must mention this system for two reasons.  The last winner mentioned in February’s newsletter was Victory Gunner at 11/1. What followed was a characteristic long losing run of 17 followed by winners at 10/1, 6/1 and 11/4 in between two losers.  The next winner came on 11th March 2009 at 10/1.  It’s been very much “as you were” with these long losing runs somewhat negating any potential profits gained from the good priced winners. Of course, the website only highlights the winners and fails to mention the 19 losers which effectively negated the 10/1, 6/1 and 11/4 winners.

These systems are “faith systems” – faith that you’ll reach a big priced winner and indeed big priced winners with enough frequency to ensure the long losing runs do not negatively impact the betting bank.  There is every chance that winners may arrive in a cluster, so I’ll continue to monitor. It’s not for me though. I cannot bear long losing runs – that’s my betting personality I guess.

Paul Fowlie’s Dodgy Favourites

An inauspicious start to the year (from my calculations anyway) for this much-lauded laying system.  I make it a seven-point loss to date, since year start. This is due to some hefty losses from a majority of lays that lost their races at odds, which are not in keeping with the general short prices. I count three horses specifically who have simply contributed to the loss figure. They were laid within the SP limit (although the Betfair price was, of course, bigger). The liabilities were unnaturally high when compared with the rest of the lays.  In order for this system to be profitable, and I think it may be, we ourselves need to set a limit to the amount of liability we are willing to risk (remember, this is level stakes laying so liabilities are controlled by prices – and we have been punished for it!).  When faced with liabilities over £500, perhaps it would be wise, in the case of these relatively large potential losses, to actually employ FIXED liability staking, set at a comfortable cap of say £350 to £100 stakes?

It will be an interesting exercise to see how this contributes to the profit and loss figure.  Dodgy Favourites is another system with The Racing Post Betting Forecast at the forefront of its methodology. The actual selection strategy reads like a backing system of sorts but I suppose the logic is to identify Racing Post betting forecast favourites likely to be selected by many to back, thus reducing price?  One to persevere with I think. On nine occasions the Betfair SP was seven or higher, with three horses winning their races. I will seek to address this in the coming month and hopefully salvage something from what is an easy enough to use system – available from http://www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/.

http://www.backtipster.com/

You’ll recall this 1326 staking plan system from Kevin Curry. As I have said previously, the concept is excellent but it would seem that losing runs of 1 point are actually meaning that the stake lost is £30 if a winner is not followed by another winner at the start of another one point betting cycle. A recent example shows this well. Do re-read the article on 1326 staking and the information freely available at the website.  From 17th March 2009 to 21st March 2009 these have been the sequence of win and loss as follows:

Stake odds result profit/loss

30.00 2.33 Won 37.91

20.00 2.32 Lost -20.00

10.00 2.09 Lost -10.00

10.00 3.28 Won 21.66

30.00 1.99 Lost -30.00

10.00 3.15 Lost -10.00

10.00 2.99 Won 18.91

30.00 2.01 Lost -30.00

10.00 1.93 Lost -10.00

10.00 2.78 Lost -10.00

10.00 1.97 Won 9.22

30.00 2.62 Lost -30.00

10.00 2.45 Won 13.78

30.00 2.48 Lost -30.00

10.00 2.32 Won 12.54

30.00 2.89 Lost -30.00

10.00 2.42 Won 13.49

Can you see that on each occasion a win was not followed by another win, a £30 loss accrued? Compare that £30 with the returns on winning bets and you can see why, so far, Kevin Curry is running at a 9 point loss for the year to date. On five occasions in this small time band £30 stake was lost.  The staking concept is sound as long as sufficient winners at correct prices can be accommodated.  A potential flaw? I don’t know, as historically a profit has been made. The price is £120 per month and you would currently be running in the negative so far this year.

http://www.bettolose.co.uk/

Another loss retrieval lay service and we know all about these from http://www.autolays.co.uk/. This service differs in that its betting cycle is only three, but you still get the impression that horses are selected by price rather than opinion as to their chances of victory or loss.  You should know what to expect now from loss retrieval systems, especially on the lay side where liability has to be factored in once the exercise of retrieving losses begins.

Since the blip on 13th February, there have been no more betting cycles going awry, meaning that the recovery of the stakes using the loss retrieval was put into place.

Yes, money is made, and yes the betting cycle being reduced to three ensures that you will not reach catastrophic staking, (as you would do if chasing four losing lays onto a 5th bet).

Results for each month are available for inspection at http://www.bettolose.co.uk/updated.php.  If you want to give it a go, by all means do, but remember that anomalies WILL occur regardless of how long the current winning run is.  There are two other services, the ‘one a day lay’ service with its own staking plan. And the short prices lays staking plan. The one a day service uses loss retrieval staking and as far as I can read, there is no restriction on the number of consecutive bets you retrieve losses on.

In February there were seven consecutive one a day lays, which won their races and hence lost for us. Here are just five of the selections which won their races:

And that’s just with a £5 target profit (which should be 1/20th of your betting bank). It’s a good old-fashioned wipeout without even considering the two other selections, which won their races!

Bottom line

It’s all about your confidence in the selections provided as far as any loss retrieval laying system is concerned.

On the plus side, for the main “stop at a loser” service, wipeout days are rare. The system put in place to retrieve losses from any day when all three or four horses win their races in a betting cycle has been shown to work recently.

So take a chance if you want to, but enter any of these strategies with a knowledge of the potential downsides.

Football

The overs and unders system continues to be a very useful ally to the idea of trading over 2.5 goals.  Those who want a potentially easier ride could trade over 1.5 goals with its obvious drop in profit with the lower risk taken. The overs aspect of the eBook does highlight games where goals are expected. As I showed last month it has been consistent, even allowing us to profit from under 2.5 goals – as long as a goal is scored early, or 2-0, 1-1, 0-2 is reached within a reasonable time frame. If only all games were like Barcelona v Malaga…!

This for me has been the standout system I use, the trading allows for good money management.  I have recently been experimenting with a simple trading idea hinted at above. I will look at ultra short priced sides playing at home, back over 1.5 goals (the games must be in running to allow for trading), put a saver bet on 0-0 correct score and wait for the first goal whereupon I will trade out for a profit. It’s a small profit but relatively secure.

I look for games where there is a red hot favourite who has been proven to score. Cue Real Madrid at the weekend against Almeria. They scored the first goal early in the 1st half allowing me to trade out for a guaranteed profit. Ditto with Barcelona who eventually beat Malaga 6-0.

The potential flaw with this system though is a 0-0 for a concerted period followed by a single late goal.  1-0’s are the problem scorelines for this particular method of trading which is why I will be very picky and do my research.

Perhaps the overs and unders methodology would work perfectly here too?

The season is nearly ending and I am looking forward to analysing all of the profit and loss figures for the tipsters (free and paid) that I am following. It will make interesting reading I am sure and point you in the right direction for next season.  With the relative success of the overs and unders betting system, I will be buying the Football Black Box from (yes, you’ve guessed it) that boy Brookes.  However, it would seem to only be marketed by him and not written by him – a key distinction.  This is a football laying system and I will be trialling it from 1st April, and on through the next season.

Up and coming

Matt Bisogno is releasing his Draw Bias horse profiles this week, which I will be keeping an eye on for you. http://www.flatracingprofiles.com/ is the website and having spoken about the importance of the draw myself, he is offering a free all weather report at the time of writing (note that he probably wants your email address in order to market his racing profiles news service, so do bear that in mind!).

http://www.bingobonusblaster.com/ is less serious but certainly merits investigation from me. The focus here is on making online bingo providers’ bonuses work for you.  We have already seen how effective using bookmaker bonuses can be so why not elsewhere online?  Watch out for my updates coming soon.  By the way, http://www.freebets4all.com/ looks an excellent resource as far as bookmaker bonuses and the exploitation thereof is concerned. I was very impressed with the email alerts notifying me of all the Cheltenham bookmaker incentives that we could exploit. Well worth checking out!

You can download the March issue of WRWM HERE