SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE
Frankie Franks All Weather Investments
Of course the turf flat season has pushed the all weather to the back burner but here’s the latest update: “Not much action on the All Weather since my last update. Only 8 selections over the 2 systems that I am tracking since my last report. However, both systems have increased their profit. Overall since testing started:”
Betting Plan
Selections: ……121
Wins ……………52
Strike rate……43%
Profit …………..£208.50 to £10 stakes
ROI……………..17.2%
All Weather Investments
Selections …….130
Wins ……………32
Strike rate……24.6%
Profit …………..£616.33 to £10 stakes
ROI……………..47.4%
Perfectly acceptable performance despite the significant drop in qualifying bets.
PROOFED RESULTS
As ever, it is pleasing to see services update their results on their websites (as long as they’re not owned by Dean Jarvis!). This allows full transparency as well as allowing the individual the opportunity to inspect systems as they pertain to bet frequency, staking, and strike rate.
16 system selections since last newsletter with winners at 15/8, 7/4, 4/1, 7/2 and 4 other placed horses. A pity this tipster is fully subscribed. The guy behind the service, Martin Blakey, has been proofing another system to me in the interim and frankly the results fall into the “too good to be true” category with winners daily up to 14/1. Now I trust Martin Blakey, and like he says, it may be a flash in the pan. I hope not.
I have asked him to consider me and readers for any guinea pig tests he wants to conduct, so get the collective prayer mat out!
http://www.kenneth-j-wilsonracingservices.co.uk/
Again fully available to inspect results and April has been another poor month with a break even at best. I have been mentioning staking plans in this newsletter as they pertain to lay selections and a more unconventional approach to staking may salvage results as they stand at present. Repeating last month, the idea is that with infrequent selections we should expect greater quality regarding profit but this has not been the case in April.
A full set of 13/13 for April and 5 from 7 successes thus far in May for this patient lay system. While not quite being an odds on lay system (hey we can’t have everything!) the price limit of 3.45 or thereabouts is the liability control we need and if results continue as they have, then patience will be rewarded.
A significant change in tack for the service has caught me unawares. I normally check emails against results on the site, but now note the bias towards laying and football – as well as occasional each way bets. I will put these into a spreadsheet to look at performance but time is not on my side as present.
Another service whose results are available for inspection, and since the last newsletter a breakeven period with the betting bank neither winning nor losing. I suppose, if you look at the results PDF, this exemplifies perfectly the frustrations that the layer of higher prices can encounter – the good work of previous days wiped out by a winner.
The placepot king of recent weeks, but how have things gone in the last month? After the successful Nottingham placepot of the 15th April, it looks like the service has concentrated on laying mostly this month and has been successful at it with main bets. 5/1, 8/1, 3/1 winners and 14/1 place for each way backers have kept things ticking along for this service akin to how I approach betting. They have a flexible attitude to back one day, lay the next, and each way on another day to fit in with the racing of the day.
Only the most optimistic of punters would have continued after the hammering of the winter and early quarter of the year, but a return of sorts for the saver with a near 6 point gain for the month and the hope of more consistency to come. It was such a pity as I found the system so reliable throughout 2007.
TARGET PROFIT PER DAY SYSTEMS
At first glance an excellent month with 5 losing days since 20th April, but this does not tell the whole story. There were 6 days using heavy odds on shots. This system operates in a cycle of 3 where we look to win a target profit. If the first bet loses, we look to win that target profit and lost stake on the 2nd bet and so on. On the 2nd May, we were faced with 2 losing bets and a 3rd bet priced at 4/9. You can imagine then, that stakes on the 4/9 shot to win two lots of lots of stakes (as well as the target profit) would have been too large relative to the betting bank. Similarly, the 12th, 13th and 14th of May saw winning days, BUT the first bet in the sequence was at odds of 2/5, 4/11 and 1/4. Luckily for us these bets won… BUT what if they had lost and we had to carry over lost stakes? This is where potential problems can arise.
Indiscriminate backing will jeopardise profits when heavy odds on shots are included into any target profit per day system, and this has not been addressed with the Sir Racing System. I would suggest there are enough winning days for us to call NO BET days on any races where there is potentially a short priced odds on shot, particularly on Bet 2 or 3 where we may have to utilise the loss retrieval element of the system.
The system also hints at carrying over losses to the next day up to a maximum of 4 days. Now in order to achieve this, and include odds on shots (as the manual does not tell us to be discretionary with odds on shots) would require a quick phone call to Roman Abramovich to help with the betting bank! Personally it’s too dangerous for me. I am currently happy with the strike rate on a day-by-day basis to effectively forget losses and move on.
Bottom line
Caution must be advised when entertaining odds on, and in particular heavy odds on shots, on target profit per day.
BUT, if your betting bank can absorb the increased stakes with horses priced low (and let’s face it they are MORE likely to win), then I can’t argue with the profits thus far.
A system, which has certainly fluctuated since ests began, is showing a handsome 26 point profit for the period. This system puts at risk 9 points per day and is not a strict target profit per day system. 3 losing days therefore and we’re back to square 1! This system, though, DOES account for odds on shots and accounts for them by, erm, discounting them. A ‘no bet’ day if there is an odds on shot. Results at www.computapik.com are spot on and are good indicators of the system, BUT you now know that this involves 3 horses in a single day. So when there is a losing day, it is a 9 point loss. The results on the site may be misconstrued. When there is a losing day, the operator simply puts up the biggest priced losing horse! So take each losing day as a 9 point loss to give you a fair guide.
This system seems to be profiting as I write, but as you can see, any number of losing days can decimate profit made. It is easy to operate and I suspect can be done in one fell swoop as it is more of a stop at a winner than a loss retrieval type system where we need to be reactive to previous results. Odds on shots are avoided (well odds on in the Betting Forecast). There have been occasions where odds on shots have been included only because their odds in The Racing Post betting forecast were odds against. Again a variation in odds to lay – some squeamishly high!
LAYING SYSTEMS
Brian’s Morgan’s lay system has been performing admirably since I mentioned it as a reader system last month. I hope this continues. As ever, liability control is vital.
This system still does not sit well with me because it lays up to 9.00 decimal odds. I hope you’ve learned from the lay articles that when these horses win their races, IT REALLY HURTS! 6.2 points profit this month past and 12.8 points if stopping at a 4 point profit on the day. The system continues to confound me as I seem to be blinded by the already mentioned big odds, but my tester remains bullish.
Still impressing and the consistency remains. 16 selections recently with 2 winners and a modest 3.3 point profit.
FOOTBALL
Of course the footy season has left us, as marked by the FA Cup Final, but we still have Euro 2008 to come (I was worrying that I’ve have to actually make conversation on a Saturday afternoon!) I have now procured another football system for next season from www.bettingdata.co.uk so we’ll have a new season to trial all of these systems and there’ll be NO HIDING PLACE for the crap! With Euro 2008 comes a myriad of opportunitiesin a number of markets. Bookmakers and the betting exchanges will be all too keen to keep our custom with the lack of domestic representatives (bow down Steve McClown!). And do keep an eye on the blog for my tuppence worth.
OTHERS
The Top 6 Systems
This is the handicap system, which is one of those “faith” systems. Long losing runs mean we just have to have faith that a winner or cluster of winners will arrive in the fullness of time. Well this is exactly what happened this month! Carrying on from last month, the strike rate still hovers around the 29% mark, and 3 winners broke a recent losing run of 8 at 15/2, 9/2 and 2/1 (NOTE –any race with 2 selections I treat as 2 separate bets)
The Winning Formula from
www.mdprofessionalsportsbetting.co.uk
I did warn last month that those who are unable to mentally take a long losing run would do best to leave this system behind despite its 2 year verifiable run of profits. 2nd places at 7/1, 13/2 and 5/1 in the month would have been better served, of course, coming first, and a 9/1 winner would have been most welcome were it not for the price cap at 17/2. Analysis shows the problem area since year start – 2/1 to 3/1 selections producing a 12.3 point level stakes loss, while other areas remain negligible. Far be it from me to tinker with a proven system, but it would be well to monitor performance of 3/1 and higher selections, still remaining within the 17/2 price limit. A 22 horse losing run currently in force could be overcome by the winners we await. If a few of those 2nd places can convert to 1’s we will be back on track.
3 into 1 system
Earlier in this issue you saw how I put the poor performing odds on shots as a potential low liability lay system. So how has over evens back bets performed? Well, again it’s break even for the month. The Master Staking Plan mentioned last month is still the one to focus on, with the largest stake to £1,000 bank being £80 – very manageable and causing no great alarm!
Racing Unlocked
As mentioned last month, the Master and Pocket Staking Plans are the ones to concentrate on from the fasttrackplans staking software, largest stakes £100 and £40 respectively for above evens back selections. Level stakes can be seen on the bottom line. A month of no movement BUT well ahead for the year. I will continue to monitor.
NEWBIES
Plenty of new websites to add to the rosta and here’s a quick synopsis on them:
Well I don’t know what to make of these guys. I have since ended my subscription. Too many “server issues” and not a sign of the “patented” staking plan, which was the only real reason, I joined. The alluring £1,000 bonus on the website was, as suspected, bookie bonuses. I suppose this is achievable with a good deal of work and a LOT of newly opened bookmaker accounts!
FREE TRIALS
James Jary is certainly bullish about his new lay system so why not try it out for yourself and take advantage of his free trial? He has upped his advertising to include ads in The Racing Post itself. Now, too many people on board may affect prices… but if, as he claims, his selections simply do not lose, then the shorter odds would be welcome.
http://www.web.protipsmembers.com/
A fledgling service which may be on to something if recent results are anything to go by. Results for January – May are profitable and you can check them out at the website.
The good news is there is a 30 day trial – so do take advantage of it and see if this is a flash in the pan, or a set of results that can be replicated on a more consistent basis. I have a good feeling about this service and NOT A HINT of the glossy brochure boys about this lot.
Another 30-day trial that I have taken up – just in time for the guy behind it, Matt, to be hospitalized! He’s back and well now, and since my trial a 54 point loss has accrued (bear in mind it’s 10 points a election so strictly it’s a 5.4 points loss). Very early days indeed of course so we’ll just have to wait and see. Generally one selection per day so those who want to personally sneak a peak, then take advantage of the 30 day trial
No website available for this service – I’m currently taking up the trial and it’s no great shakes at present. Standard level stakes betting, I presume win only. 7 point loss for the month – this is one of those services that threatens to get you ahead and then suddenly a raft of losers decimate the gains. We’ll have to wait and see if it gets its head in front, so to speak
Well, how to describe this service? It’s a tipster of sorts, with tips generated by ordinary punters via the forum on the site. This website has a good vibe about it and, being free to register, is certainly worthy of your investigation. There are 2 main portfolios – the flat and the national hunt, both of which have reported consistent profits over the years. I am also receiving Terry’s Lays and occasional new system creations. An interesting site to look around I would suggest with articles on all betting niches.
TENNIS
I have received a betting manual written by Patrick Ross in good time for this newsletter. Unfortunately, opening the electronically formatted manual was like appearing on the Krypton Factor. I have since learned that I am to blame (of course!) and will attempt to implement the strategy. The system I have is the one sold at http://www.tennistradingleague.com/ and I believe it involves live market trading rather than backing before the off. There is a hint as to what is involved at the website “To put it short the whole process works the following way:watching tennis on TV watching tennis market on Betfair spotting the right moment to open the trade closing the trade” So we can surmise that we need to be watching the actual tennis match to be able to bet. I must admit, tennis is not one of the games I can watch for any length of time, but we’ll see!