Systems And Tipsters Update
The systems and tipsters update, I hope, will get a full overhaul in the interim between now and August (the next newsletter).
I want this part of the newsletter to be as strong as the rest of the newsletter. It is the weak link at present, and is reliant, a lot of the time, on third parties helping me with the analysis of results, as it is a big job for one person.
On occasions like this month, a number of the results spreadsheets have not been received in time. This needs to change to ensure continuity and there is no better chance than the newsletter break between June and August.
A loss of 38 points when I last wrote, turns into a profit of +59 points by my reckoning for the month just gone, with each-way bets winning, or placing (thus returning stakes at worst-case scenario or providing a great profit for just placing – a large chunk of that 59 point profit was Society Rock placing at 50/1 (20/1 for the place on Betfair which I verified). Also, bets allocated a large number of points relative to other bets (e.g. 5 points) won too, which helped preservation of betting bank and maximisation of returns.
This has been a great month for Better Tipster. Some of the wins, it must be said, were calculated at advised odds, not SP (in the case of Belle Noverre, the advised odds were 9/1 and the SP 9/2) so do take this into account.
Nice, also, to see the “just info” bets perform well with Marlborough Sound the highlight at 16/1. These are quite separate from the account bets and are bet at the reader’s discretion.
The service also includes some “unofficial” World Cup bets. It remains to be seen whether the Tournament long bets such as winning team/top scorer combo bets, will profit, so I won’t report on these.
Follow the links at www.bettertipster.co.uk and you can inspect the same advice that I receive by email reproduced on their results page.
A pleasing month which backs up the feeling that the information generally received is valid and points to genuine contacts and insider info.
The 5 Year Consistency Plan
The infrequency of bets this month means I will update next August.
Tipsters and systems whose results are online for your inspection
www.bettertipster.co.uk, as already mentioned can be followed by you online.
Tipsters being monitored
Remember this is lay loss retrieval so approach this system with that firmly fixed in mind. The results are not updated this month, which could signal a blow out, as we have seen with previous loss retrieval services. I hope this is an aberration by the system creator. As far as loss retrieval systems go, it has delivered for a while, but you enter it at your own risk, knowing the downside.
Gamekeeper turned poacher
This is a traditional lay system with two straightforward selections strategies, with its focus being on selecting horses to oppose, based primarily on poor trainer and jockey performance, which is, I suppose, a good foundation to work with.
System 1’s lays are to a maximum of 6.5.
System 2’s lays are to a maximum of 10. Do take note of this when inspecting the results. Concern with the number of apparent non qualifiers recently breaching the price limit (set variously at 6.5 and 7.5).
My three months of tips ended on 20th April 2010 and the results have not been updated.
Expect an update via the eletter.
www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/dutchingdiamondresults.pdf is where you can inspect results for this dutching strategy. As I said last month, the aim is to win 10 points per race. The author does suggest loss retrieval as part of Dutching Diamond.
As yet, he has not gone more than two losing days on the trot which is good for loss retrieval. These results are based on the dutching races advised by the author.
www.oddsontowin.blogspot.com is the diary for the performance of this one-man band dutching system, which is very similar to Dutching Diamond (and this is pure coincidence).
I like it, and you can follow the system personally via this blog which is an ideal addition to the newcomer to dutching.
I said last month that “I will continue following as long as I continue receiving the tips.” Well the tips have stopped as of 3rd June 2010 so I cannot really give you an accurate reflection of the month-long performance.
A tipster service becoming a racing club with the hope for a number of horses in running, for £99.99 per year, this looks to be a service of promise. I was promised continuous proofing but this has again ceased in the interim period between May and June.
The Specialist (from www.sportsworldpublishing. co.uk) is still running at a loss since inception on 27th March, but I feel is best looked at in retrospect at the end of the flat season. Around -25 points loss to date, there is plenty of the flat season left.
Follow the Fortune
From Roger Purssod, the man behind the Cambridge Target System, Follow the Fortune is another live market reading system. With such systems there will inevitably be problems regarding the author’s selections and reading of the markets just before the off being slightly different to other individuals. The only way to get any uniformity in results is to adopt a strategy whereby the system is used with a bot, and that is the avenue I will pursue. I am awaiting the bot and will report back after a good period using said bot.
www.allbythebook.com – new system knee-jerk reaction
I was asked by a reader to check out this rather intriguing system at the above website. The system is called “All by the book”.
You will realize that the book title is rather clever because this betting system focuses specifically on trying to create an eventual under round (I am being deliberately cryptic by including the word eventual).
What is an under round? Well, let’s start by asking what is an over round? An over round is the percentage figure once all prices on a betting market are converted to percentages and added together.
Odds and their equivalent percentages can be found at websites such as http://tinyurl.com/32rkgmq
Or by doing the following calculation:
For ease of example, let us look at 2/1 as a percentage.
Step 1 First number divided by second number. 2 divided by 1 = 2
Step 2: Add 1 2 + 1=3
Step 3: Divide 100 by 3
Step 4: 100 divided by 3 = 33.33%
2/1 as a percentage is 33.33%
I will let you practise with the prices for the Champions League final at http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league
5/2 (Bayern), 23/10 (The Draw) and 23/17 (Inter Milan)
5/2 = 28.57%
23/10 = 23 divided by 10 + 1 = 3.3 100 divided by 3.3 = 30.30%
23/17 = 23 divided by 17 = 1.35 +1 = 2.35 100 divided by 3.35 = 42.55%
Here I will now calculate the over round which will be 28.57% + 30.30% + 42.55% = 101.42%
If the bookie has done his job, the resulting percentage will always be over 100% to ensure a profit for the bookmaker as not every punter will be choosing the same bet!!
What “All by the book” seeks to do is to create an under round, i.e. all odds added together as a percentage comes to less than 100% meaning that you can actually back all horses/outcomes and still profit by the difference between 100% and the percentage total (e.g. if all horses added together as a percentage eventually came to 95%, you would be guaranteed a 5% return profit regardless of who won).
By using guaranteed best odds, “All by the book” argues that we can create an under round and thus guarantee a return on certain UK horse races that meet certain criteria. I must say it is intriguing to say the least and something I am keen to follow up.
Well, there is the small matter of having to open up 12 bookmaker accounts as well, preferably, as opening accounts at Betfair and Betdaq.
In theory, this is an excellent idea as long as you can get prices as advertised.
I will be following this system up because if it works, downside would be a matter of a couple of quid, and upside a lot better, guaranteeing, it is argued, a long-term profit.