Hi

What a great race last weekend – the 2 big 2 year olds battling it out. Poor Mick Kinane had to weave and bob to get clear passage, but the line came too soon. What chance DonKing getting involved in the next instalment? I’m certainly looking forward to it.

Having slimmed down my selections on the blog this week, I’m still hitting some 8/1’s and 7/1 and a couple of 12/1’s on Wednesday which was good news for readers of it. Hope this continues, but some of the racing is proving difficult to decipher with the hard as nails jumps horses returning from their summer sabbatical, probably in some stable in Ibiza, while their soft summer pals have been running on the flat. Add to this possible changes in ground conditions EVEN during meetings, and things become worse.

Thank God for laying I say!

I am surprised at the Handicap Lay system’s ability to keep picking losers, and thanks must go the person who came up with this as a backing system, and I am more impressed by its ability to pick, consistently , horses who DON’T EVEN PLACE. This is good news for the liability issue, and is also good news if employing a progressive laying staking plan, as very rarely are their placed horses in a sequence.

I’m certainly excited and I’ll get my, ahem, team of technicians onto it pronto! Another benefit of place laying is that, even if a horse wins, we are not paying out the liability we would have done had we backed it in the win only market. The strike rate for placed only laying, is, predictably, lower than the win only market, which is why I am drawn to progressive laying, although it would be interesting to see what profit there would be through simple level staking.

CHELTENHAM BOUND

As we approach November, some of the contenders for the races at Cheltenham in March will be returning to action. We saw this with War of Attrition this week, and it’s always worth following these big boys on their seasonal bows. Tomorrow’s card looks chock full of decent types and likely contenders for March and I’ll be looking at these on the blog again.

MCCLEAN HITS 15!

Still with place only betting, the mathematical staking plan system hit a run of 15 consecutive placed only horses (not a patch on my 24 consecutive using the HTB system) and I have asked the system creator if he wouldn’t mind writing an article on this, because this form of betting can produce quick returns with relatively little risk,as it operates an accumulator type system. For those of you interesting in this system, let me know.

FOOTIE -MAGIC

The unders tipping last week was red hot. Chelski win by a deflected goal – I did think Reading were no pushovers. The Everton match was 1-0 at half time – trade out – have a cup of tea – money in the bank – luvvly jubbly! ManCity proved how bad they are infront of goal, and another under 2.5 goals game ended 0-0.

This weekend and I can’t be having Chelsea at1 / 4 to beat Portsmouth. Yes I know they have an exemplary home record, but Pompey have a decent defensive unit. I will go again with the under 2.5 goal trade here, with the emphasis on trade, and not BET,as I will seek to get out quickly in the first half with a marginal profit should there be no goal scored.

The Everton Sheffield United game I see as another tight affair, and a potential under 2.5 goal trade. Remember last week I was talking about sequencing – well Elgin won at 11/8 closing their long losing run. Now is the time for Watford and West Ham to end their losing runs. Backing both teams at 11/1 and 11/4 has not impacted greatly on the progressive cycle, and this week Watford are 11/4 away to a spluttering Charlton, while West Ham are 7/2 away to Spurs. The latter is a London derby so I hope it won’t be the cakewalk for Spurs that the odds dictate.

Some other sequences may have caught your attention. WayneRooney and Shevshenko are goalless and this must come to an end, barring injury, soon? The players are 4/1 first and 4/1 last goalscorer, while Rooney is 9/2 first and 9/2 last goalscorer. It’s a real pity there are no ‘to score anytime markets’ for this as these would be excellent sequences to follow.

This weekend also sees Barcelona versus Real Madrid. Barcelona without Samuel e’too do not look as solid and reliable as last season. Real have been pretty goal shy in the last few games, although, much to my surprise, without SamuelEtoo, Barca have still managed to score more than 2 a game with regularity. 5 of the last 6 matches have been over 2.5 goals (with Etoo in the side). Again, under 2.5 goals trading beckons here. The earliest goal was scored in the 14th minute by Etoo last time, and with him out, and Ronaldinho camped on the left hand side, Barca have to rely on Gudjohnsen. I will be looking to exit before half time in the hope the first half is tight early on

FOOTBALL BETTING SCIENCE

I’m going to try out some of my betting plans this month, courtesy of Football Betting science, and I will operate a permutation with Villa and the draw, Everton and the draw, and Celtic at home as my banker.

The perm looks a little like this

BET 1BET 2BET

3CELTIC111EVERTON11XVILLA1X1ODDS2.835.9

36.28STAKE(100)51.9124.7323.36RETURN146.6714

6.67146.67PROFIT46.6746.6746.67

1 = Home win and X = draw. Can you see that as long as Celtic win and as long as Everton and Villa don’t lose, we win our bet.I have no really strong choices lower than Celtic, otherwise the returns would be much bigger.

I’m still finding my feet with this so let’s hope it comes off. The plans would have worked a treat mid week in the Champions League.

Remember I mentioned the Value calculator last week, well there’s no value home bets in the Premiership this Saturday, but the calculator has highlighted Derby, Leicester and Luton as value home bets. I’ll be laying the away teams to cover the draw, and hope the system continues performing as it has in tests.

Nearer to home we have our local FA Cup matches with a newly reformed Rocquaine United, (my part of the Island) thrashing the local Smashie and Nicie commercial radio station, Island FM, a poptabulous 8-0 Alas there were no over 2.5 goals betting market available, although I did ask Betfair. (I had some insider knowledge you see, and could have profited very nicely).

Our Sunday league team exited alas at the first hurdle, going down 6-1 to a local team in the Guernsey FA league. It was a game of 2 halves – both bad ones for us, and we were undone by the fact the match began at 10 in the morning, which didn’t allow us to do our usual warm up routine of having a cup of coffee and yawning,

NEW SYSTEMS

I will begin purchasing new systems the first week of November, so your suggestions would be most welcome. Let me know if you’ve found something that’s tweaked your interest and I’ll see if I can get it for you.

I’m getting more and more systems on board as well as approaching more tipsters to ask if they’ll allow me to trial their services. SteveLewisHamilton is one – his figures add up – it’s not 40k a month or anything ridiculous like that, and we hope to be able to trial him soon. So it’s quite a collection building up.

The guys behind Market Excellence, the fixed odds traders, have a back and lay system which I am trialing, early Diana Doors but it looks interesting.

So as you can see, there’s plenty to keep me off the streets, although not enough to avoid the Tasmanian Devil that is my nephew. His sister’s selection policy based on horses whose names are near to anything to do with Barbie has hit a slow patch recently. She puts this down to the transition between the flat and jumps scene, and the deteriorating and unpredictable ground conditions, coupled with the prevalence of horses returning from a long layoff, oh, and the fact she’s more interested in Bratz now, although she did pick out Gemini Lucy at Punchestown at 7/2 who won because she liked the name. So wait for the mailshot from her (in crayon) and the launch of the ‘I like that horses’ name’ tipping service – it’s a winner!.

SCREENSHOTS

Because of the now famous ‘hard drive’ incident, I no longer have screenshots of football trades, but will do my best to get some more with the live action this weekend and get them to those who have requested them by Monday. I’ve a good mind to write to that Bill Gates, and sign my letter ‘MrAngry’ from Guernsey. I want to do a dedicated article, which will not appear in WRWM, on in running betting, as I believe there are far too many samey products out there, all spinning out the same generic information. I can draw on the best of these, and add a few more insights too, so expect this soon. The ‘Good/bad’systems have been put on hold since the hard drive problem so, once I collate a decent database of results again, I can provide a definitive list, thus far, of the ones to recommend and the ones to avoid.

I hope you have a great weekend. After our 6-1 drubbing, the drama of the FA Cup has got to me, so I’ll be settling down with a nice drop of local cider this weekend to watch Barcelona Real Madrid and Man Utd Liverpool.

Have a great weekend

Clive