I’ve finally got my hands on Raj “I was on the telly” Patel’s Racing Cash Machine. Released in a blaze of glory some months ago and to much hype, the system purported to show how Raj has been profiting consistently from horse racing using Betfair’s unique in-running betting market.
In running
For the uninitiated, Betfair, the world’s largestbetting exchange, offers unique betting marketsallowing us to back horses in the traditional way andlay horses (back them to lose their races). A new twisthas been added with our ability to now back and lay asthe race is actually being run! If a horse clips a fencewe can lay it. If there’s a known front-runner withstamina doubts, we can lay it in the hope that it willeventually be overtaken near the end of the race. If ahorse is cantering and looks to be cruising we can backit, sometimes at greater odds than offered before therace.I haven’t even scratched the surface with thetechniques available in the in-running market. Othersinclude hedging, trading between pre-race market andin-running market, laying all horses at a certain priceand profit if 2 are matched at the same prices etc.With Raj Patel’s Racing Cash Machine, the focus ispredominantly on backing horses in-running inresponse to their position in the race and the bodylanguage of the jockey and horse in relation to theiropponents.Yet again though, it is quite obvious that you mustfollow the live racing to benefit from this product. Iwill trial also at weekends to see if the product couldbe profitable with weekend racing.
So what’s on offer?
Well, yet again, a simple idea has been turned into a big A4 manual replete with many DVDs showing examples of the system in action. This clever ploy implies great value in the product and an associated high price, some £200+. That’s all well and good as long as the product delivers. Raj Patel’s system is hardly ground-breaking. It’s all very obvious stuff, but I guess it takes someone to show you the obvious before you put it into action. The system revolves around the runnings of market leaders during the race. There are some advantages to waiting until the race is in-running before we entertain betting on the market leaders. This is particularly the case in jumps races. If a favourite or market leader falls early on in a race, then our stakes are saved. If a favourite is finding the racing difficult, this is immediately noticeable and we can, again, save our stakes, BUT if the market leader is being ridden with extreme confidence and looks, to the naked eye, to be running without any great distress or effort, then we can pounce. As I said before, hardly an earth shattering breakthrough. The Racing Cash Machine course, I suppose, tidies up the whole methodology by providing rules to follow, races to avoid, staking to follow and correct submission of bets. Any person with general experience of in-running markets on Betfair can quite easily, in my estimation, suss out this methodology and keep their £200+ safe in the bank.
The importance of software
Something MrPatel seems to have rather forgotten is the fact that if you are going to be venturing into the in-running horse racing markets on Betfair, you just cannot use the Betfair website and keep clicking on the refresh button as he does in his examples. The inrunning markets are fast, ever changing and prices need to be changed by the second. Software, therefore, is a PREREQUISITE. It is a must and any betting inrunning without software is just folly. We need prices to be auto refreshed, we need one click bet submission. What we don’t need is to refresh the screen, submit our bets or confirm our bets manually. Betangel Basic is ideal and free for this purpose and will serve the inrunning bettor’s needs. I personally use Fairbot which has a 0.1 second refresh and the ability to place bets immediately. Your profit making ability in-running will improve dramatically using software specific to Betfair which replicates the screen, rather than using Betfair’s website.
Bottomline: will you make money?
If you can follow racing live on TV with your PC in front of you, you could profit from in-running racing. Practice though is the key to success, and Raj Patel’s course is by no means a must buy. I will say though, that as with Raj Patel’s Soccer Revolution System, this is again an idea that is applicable and has the potential for success, BUT it is probably going to be seen at its most profitable if applied to all qualifying in-running races on a day by day basis. This will probably exclude a lot of people from benefiting fully from this in-running strategy.
If you ask yourself these questions , then you could replicate what Raj achieves without the expense:
1. Do I have the facilities to enable me to make use of in-running betting? These will include specialistsoftware and live access to pictures of the actualraces
2. What is my strategy going to be if I do consider in-running betting specifically on UK horse races? This really is an important question. Are yougoing to be trading between pre race market and inrunningmarket? Are you going to lay a horse tomonitor in-running? Are you going to back aspecific horse with a view to monitoring andreacting in-running? Are you going to hedge aparticular horse? That is back/lay the horse beforethe off and back/lay in-running at a different price tolock in a profit. Are you going to lay a horse wholooks like he’s struggling in running or are yougoing to concentrate on specific fancied horses andtry to determine their strength in-running and backaccordingly a la Patel? There are many, many morestrategies such as laying all horses at a specific priceor backing all horses at a specific price in the hopeof profiting. We can also, using specific software, trigger bets at a price which reflects a horse’s chanceof winning. I guess these are all strategies for futureissues but you must be clear on your strategy andfocus purely on that strategy. By focussing on theone strategy you can become adept at it.
3. Have I considered my all important money management and staking plan which is SPECIFIC to the unique world of in-running betting? This is key. If we adopt a backing strategyin-running, we can, oftentimes, be backing horses atprices lower than their SP’s, sometimes at long oddsons.
A Quick Guide to In- Running Strategies
1. Lay All
This facility is actually available at www.betfair.com itself. How do we make use of it? The key with using this facility is to change the odds so they are exactly the same, and to change the stake so it is uniform throughout, like this: I must stress that the above odds and stakes are for example only and NOT recommended. The key to using this facility is to wait for the race to go inrunning and then submit these bets.
Ideal races for lay all
Selecting your race is key. Ideally we want to be using this facility in competitive, difficult to call races where a number of horses are likely to be contending the finish. Ideal race types could include handicap races over sprint distances where the betting market indicates a wide open affair e.g. if the favourite is 4/1, then he is by no means nailed on. Similarly, this facility could be used in maiden races or national hunt flat races where there are a large proportion of debutants. Again, look at the price market. Is there a rock solid favourite or is the price market close e.g. favourite at 3/1, next best 4/1, then 5/1, 7/1 etc (see article on laying). When the bet is placed in running, if using the above screen shot, any horse whose odds reach 1.5 will trigger a lay bet of £10, the idea being that at 1.5 we are hoping that the short price is indicative of the fact that although the horse is obviously running well, there may be an opportunity for another horse to win the race. If we cancel our remaining bets once one horse’s bet has been triggered, we can hope that the competitive nature of the race will mean that this 1.5 shot may still lose the race. We will be faced with a £5 liability on the horse should he win, but a £10 profit should the horse lose.
2. Back All
Back all betting again works in perceivedcompetitive races, OR, to contradict myself, races where perhaps 2 or 3 horses merit seriousconsideration. Let’s look at competitive races. Take alook at the screenshot below. If I were to use theseodds and stake as an example, then I would haveprobably picked a sprint race with 5/1 the favourite.Using odds of 4, we will need 3 or fewer horses to betriggered in-running for us to profit. We will profit ifonce of those 3 horses wins the race (see below).Although this example is not in-running I want to showyou how a successful in running back all bet will looklike.The race has turned in-running and firstly Horse 1’sbet is triggered as he touches 4 in-running (yes I knowhe shows as 8 but this is an example – pretend it is 4).Next horse 5 touches 4 and then horse 7 touches 4. Assoon as these 3 horses prices are triggered, we mustcancel all other bets otherwise we will be facing a losssituation. The hope is now that one of these 3 horseswill winIf we chose odds of 3 to be triggered as back bets,then we will profit if 2 or fewer horses are triggered inrunningat the price, and go on to win. This is important!. When using this facility, you must cancelbets immediately once the prerequisite number ofhorses have been triggered.
3. Hedging
We can use the in-running betting market in tandem with the “normal” pre race betting market and benefit from any price differences that may arise once a race goes in-running. Here’s what we do:
• Focus on one horse specifically
• Doing our research determine whether we think that horses price is most likely to rise or fall as the race goes in-running. From Spotlight’s commentary we can see if a horse is a front runner, (its price is likely to fall as it goes in-running and out front early) or a hold up horse (i.e. the horse is held up for a late run at the end of the race – its price is more likely to rise early on). With the latter category, jockeys such as GeorgeBaker and JamieSpencer are adept at hold up tactics. Again, with reference to the laying article, if a horse has a bad draw over a short sprint distance, then we can assume that it will be at a disadvantage early in the race and the in-running price is likely to reflect the fact that the horse is having problems overcoming his negative draw.
• We place a back bet if we think that the horse’s price is likely to shorten in-running (we ready a lay bet at a price lower than we have laid and submit only once the race has gone in-running) – if our lay bet is triggered then we have a risk free bet.
• We place a lay bet before the race is off if we think a horse will have trouble in-running and its price consequently rise. We ready a back bet to submit inrunning at a price HIGHER than that at which we laid it. If the price is matched in-running then we have a risk free bet.
• IMPORTANT NOTE: with the above bets, horses we have laid may still win and horses we have backed may still lose BUT this is irrelevant. It’s what happens, or what we perceive most likely to happen during a race that is the key
Backing or laying running
I have hinted at backing with the above example.Again you can back with the Raj Patel methodology orback in the hope of laying in-running (effectivelytrading in-running) i.e. look for a horse who is runningwell at the moment and whose price you think willshorten in the short term (the horse may not necessarilywin its race) – back it then lay at the shorter price.Again, software is a must for this.If a race looks close, either by watching it, OR ifyour interpretation of the in running market hints atthis, consider laying the shortest priced horse in the hope that the competition have not yet played their cards.
Conclusion
In-running betting has a myriad of uses. The volatility of in-running trading on horse racing necessitates a predetermined strategy and staking plan before you ever set foot in the market. To bet without this predetermined plan will leave you open to losing your betting bank in the volatile in-running waters. The above examples are by no means exhaustive and serve as an introduction into in-running betting. Again referring to the laying article – any lay bets that you think will lose can be monitored in-running and a profit taken should their odds increase as hoped – if odds increase in-running it means punters are not too keen on backing a horse (and vice versa). Raj Patel does have a tendency to produce workable plans, but at the same time, systems such as The Racing Cash Machine are really common sense systems that you have the ability to figure out yourself. I suppose he acts as a short cut to those without the time or inclination to do the necessary work in evolving a workable strategy. Yet again, as with the Soccer Revolution, the price of The Racing Cash Machine is very off-putting indeed. This system again fits into the category of the Soccer Revolution – it’s such a simple system that anyone who buys it will remember it straightaway and then try to sell it on.