With the first goal coming after 10 minutes there was no problems with the over 2.5 goal trade even though we never got over 2.5 goals. Ronaldo’s 58th minute goal left half an hour where the market expected a third goal so this was clearly reflected as the overs price reduced below that at which we’d backed earlier.
Tevez should have scored – but it wasn’t to be. And Chef Key Cookie should have equalised just before half time for Fulham – at 5.3 the odds were worth backing instead of restrictive 1/5 or lower match odds.
On the horse racing front, all 3 horses placed although one was punted into 7/4 which was not an each way price, and came 2nd. THe number of “sure things” that didn’t win yesterday showed the perils of jumps racing in heavy ground with small fields. Zennerman managed 2nd at odds on in the seller – I was not confident about this one at all
The card kicks off with a wholly unappealing amateur riders novices handicap hurdle for 16 runners – I’ll get me coat! All things being equal, market leaders do tend to give their running in these events but we are at the mercy of tactically unaware jockeys – no doubt one horse will head off in front and try to win the race from the front, and there may well be some fallers in this reasonably big field. Mikas Fable is priced to be of interest in the place market after a set of 3’s recently although for me this is a no bet race.
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Never So Blue, 9/2 Tosula, 6/1 High Jack, 9/1 Oncle Bul, Roussea, 10/1 Musical Gift, 14/1 Chicago Alley, 16/1 Eyes To The Right, Silvo, 20/1 Macreater, 25/1 Master Bell, Northern Quest .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The key horse is NEVER SO BLUE, who will win easily if able to show anything close to his best hurdles form off a mark 29lb lower over fences. It is possible to make excuses for a down the field effort from Never So Blue in his only previous chase run here last winter and, in a very ordinary contest today, he is hard to get away from.
Another possible ” hard to beat ” candidate “will win easily IF” and “he is hard to get away from” -a semblance of a price gap
Elsewhere on the Hereford card, mention must be made of the Nicholls/Thomas combination in the 340 – Take me there – this is a bumper race, and again the market must be consulted. How good is this Nicholls trained horse?
A look at the form of the other animals and, erm, there isn’t any -this type of race I would leave Take me there alone – there are other big stables in opposition with debutants who could be anything.Rathmullen under Tony McCoy for Henrietta Knight is now 5/2 in the early betting – backed because of the names? Off the track for 214 days , this can be the only reason.
A race of this type again holds no appeal for me. There is no form to go on, and there may be some dark horses in the field.
An unappealing card – perhaps we can salvage a potential each way opportunity in the 320?
BETTING FORECAST: 7/2 Resonate, 4/1 Alpes Maritimes, Mafeking, 7/1 Kindlelight Blue, 8/1 Stark Contrast, 10/1 Inside Story, 12/1 Resplendent Ace, Spirit Of The Mist, 20/1 Dragon Slayer, Touch Of Style, 33/1 Salut Saint Cloud.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The veteran Resonate has had plenty of chances off his lower AW mark and just is not so good in this sphere while it remains to be seen if Alpes Maritimes has turned over a new leaf. Preference is for MAFEKING, who has not been out of the first four in his last eight starts on Polytrack and has been unfortunate enough to regularly come across some progressive sorts when giving his all in handicaps this year
Can we assume Spirit of the Mist and those ahead of the horse in the betting forecast won’t trouble the judge? If so, then this race looks between Resonate, Alpes MAritimes, Mafeking, Kindlelight Blue, Startk Contrast and Inside story for each way backers.
I will plump for one bang in the middle of these, Kindlelight Blue, for no other reason than the horse’s positioning in the betting forecast, indicating it should be competitive for the place
THE DRAW BIAS at Lingfield – inner draw favoured with double figure stalls having the worst of it – factor this in when you look at the cards.
The Wolves card begins with a maiden with a complete load of old dodge pots who have had many races between them to get their heads in front and lose the maiden tag – what does this mean? A race to avoid I would suggest.
DRAW BIAS – will favour those drawn low generally, and will be more pronounced the shorter the distance. Again factor this in when looking at horses in sprint races.
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Confidentiality, 5/1 Keisha Kayleigh, 7/1 Muncaster Castle, Royal Envoy, 12/1 Time To Regret, 16/1 Cavallo Di Ferro, King´s Ransom, Western Roots, 20/1 Todwick Owl, 33/1 Pop Music .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: At the weights this is a much sterner test than CONFIDENTIALITY has faced lately, but such was the manner of her last two successes, not least over plenty of in-form rivals last time, that she gets the vote again with question marks surrounding most of her most obvious rivals. If there is a good gallop on Keisha Kayleigh would also come very much into the reckoning
A handicap race – yes you guessed it – another multiple winner installed as short price favourite in Confidentiality – I think this horse can be taken on today as he increases in the weights with each progressive win. 2nd fav Keisha Kayleigh is an each way price.
At the odds tonight, Milan are expected to beat Celtic (6/4 compared with 6/1). Both teams would favour a draw, but there are obvious concerns over Celtic’s away form in the Champions League which could scupper their chances. An ultra defensive set up could be in store .Quite unbelievably the draw is 10/11! this result suits both sides. I would expect an under 2.5 goal trade to have a good chance of success here.