Mickmacmagoogle managed 2nd place after blundering at the last, great for place only backers as suggested.
The lay of Sporting came good – eventually! The lay of Lyon could have been traded out after 4-5 minutes as Barcelona scored first – the eventual 2-2 scoreline was a winner.
The unders in the Rangers game could have been salvaged in the 40th minute but those waiting til half time knew their fate with a late 45th minute equaliser.
The Sevilla bets went south – the importance of team news – a weakened Arsenal side and no way for us to get out of any bets from a trading perspective. My analysis of the Forest game was so close – cue 3-1 – again it offered trading opportunities throughout the game with so many angles covered! Laying the draw in the Swansea v Hartlepool game came off.
Lesson from yesterday – trying to be too clever with bets! Not enough selectivity
720 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Appalachian Trail, 5/1 Orchard Supreme, 6/1 Troubadour, Very Wise, 8/1 Wise Dennis, 10/1 Waterside, 12/1 Raptor, Ventura, 20/1 Babodana, Highway To Glory .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: APPALACHIAN TRAIL, who is well suited by the race conditions and has 5lb and more in hand all round on official figures, is happy over any trip from 6f-1m and comes here in the form of his life. Very Wise, whose last effort can safely be ignored, also has claims but Orchard Supreme makes most appeal of the quartet to contest that Lingfield race.[GW]
A reasonable size for potential each ways. 3 at 20/1 or bigger reduce the field to 7 . Morning prices mirror the betting forecast so it’ll be Orchard Supreme each way for me
750 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Caprio, 6/1 Bazguy, Too Grand, 8/1 Countrywide Comet, Diademas, 10/1 What´s For Tea, 12/1 Ambrose Princess, 16/1 Plaka, 20/1 Nothing Likea Dame, 33/1 Dickie Valentine, Kaystar Ridge, My Flame .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CAPRIO won with a fair bit in hand last week and, as long as he gets to the start in one piece and runs to a similar level, he’ll take the beating under a penalty. Too Grand could give him most do to
THe key here will be to actually watch CAprio on his way to post – apparently a bit of a monkey. If all is smooth there, I am taken by the “he’ll take the beating” positivity of Spotlight. 2/1 currently represents a decent chance but this is a 2 year old nursery – yuk!
100 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Lady Pilot, 4/1 Mem O´Rees, 11/2 Pakaradyssa, 7/1 Plume D´Oudairies, 14/1 Kayf Keel, Princess Flame, 20/1 Gobejolly, 25/1 Anna Panna, Twinkling Star, 33/1 Power Again, 100/1 Phone Call, Spot The Lady, Valassini .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mighty Man’s half-sister Mem O’Rees and French import Pakaradyssa are respected rivals but LADY PILOT never looked back on the Flat after joining this yard and that improvement looks set to continue over hurdles judged on the promise of her initial effort at Huntingdon
With 6 or maybe 7 at 20/1 or greater, this reduces the field if the betting forecaster is accurate and the horses run as the prices suggest. A mares only novices hurdle and a short price that can be taken on I think, with Plume D’Oudaires each way just before the 14/1 shot. The obvious one is Mem O’REes at a shorter price
240 LINGFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Julius, Noble Action, 5/1 Stormy Skye, 7/1 Bally Conn, 10/1 Whosethatfor, 12/1 Supreme Tadgh, Victor Daly, 14/1 Malaga Boy, 33/1 So Many Questions .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Winning pointer NOBLE ACTION claimed a useful scalp over hurdles last time and even better is expected over fences today. Julius rates a likely danger.[BDO]
Priced up as a 3 way go, Storm Skye each way for me
230 WETHERBY
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Lease Lend, 5/2 Kilcannon Supreme, 10/1 Lambrini Leader, O´Sogood, 14/1 Bal Birnie, Jumeirah Jane, Lewis´s World, Treacle Moon, 20/1 Sea Venture, Westgate, 33/1 Curran, Grey Eagle, Red O´Donnell, 66/1 Fol Esprit .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Useful bumper performer Lease Lend wasn’t disgraced on his hurdle debut but he didn’t jump with much fluency and preference is for KILCANNON SUPREME (nap). Peter Bowen’s dual bumper winner wasn’t disgraced on his hurdle debut in a race that is working out well and he’s open to plenty of improvement. [RY]
7 horses at 40/1 or bigger ,we assume, can be discounted, and 2 short priced market leaders Oh so good and LAmbrini leader each way here – in case this doesn’t follow the market and one of the 2 main principles falls of finds it tough
FOOTY
More selectivity today I think. Liverpool look primed to beat Porto, especially with Torres playing, but we have seen it time and time again, they make the fans sweat, so are logical lay material for trading purposes in the hope Porto score first or it remains 0-0 for a sufficient period to allow market makers to push the price out.
Rosenborg must be applauded for beating Valencia twice, but I suspect this may say more about the state of Valencia than a marked improvement in the minnows. I will back Chelsea here and I suspect it will be a one goal lead that will win it.