Fecking maiden hurdles – Shore thing pulled up as another fecking maiden hurdle “sure thing” – why do I keep going back to these – look at Checkerboard – I did the right thing by swerving him – Sinitas came 2nd at 15/2 for each way backers with Rasie your game another frustrating 4th in what was a no bet race for me. In fact Carlisle should have been left alone as it turned into heavy ground near the off. -Something to remember this winter – look out for shocks in heavy ground over obstacles.BRave REberllion 5th again in heavy ground. Jemez placed as I hoped. I put it up as a place only bet again because of the ground. the winner of the 300 was a 16/1 system bet in Storymaker – 16/1 in the betting foreecast down to 11/1 in the live market. Alas I can’t flag these so early
Ardesia won by the hair on his chinny chinn chin BUT he won! Look out for those trigger words ” will be hard to beat ” or a derivative of them. It usually signals a good run from the horse ,and more than likely the horse will place.Well the desert Quest lay actually came off – a high of 1.61 in running after being 1.34 pre race made for a green screen for those in running traders with the right software . He eventually won as expected but a slight blunder triggered the price rise.Hats off to Mickmacmagoole – Earth MAn nowhere. MEndosino came 2nd for each way backers by 1/2 length – a good performance at odds near evens for the place.
George Bernardshaw near the head of the market and worthy of a mention as it is a BAllydoyle trained horse – ideal would be each way here
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Kevkat, 5/1 Cool Touch, Davidii, 6/1 Fly Free, Monteriggioni, 16/1 Tin Town Boy, 20/1 Araschan, Dart Along, Green Tobasco, Sativa, Who´d Of Guest, 33/1 Holly Hill, Lesoto Diamond, Nanita Bonita ,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: KEVKAT (nap) is tipped to score on his third attempt over the course and trip. Winner of a premier handicap over 1m4f at the 2006 Galway Festival, and later placed in competitive handicaps over 1m6f at Tralee and 1m2f at The Curragh, Eoin Griffin’s six-year-old had been off the track for more than a year when reappearing at Navan last month, and his two subsquent runs at this venue provide evidence that he is coming right back to his best.
KEvkat is worthy of a mention with Jonny Murtagh in the saddle – the ideal? a place only bet, or an in running trade. Looks primed for an each way hit though. Kevkat will go off at likely odds against so as a stand alone win bet could be on, although as I’ve said, place only is safer
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Annambo, 3/1 Musango, 5/1 Dot´s Delight, 10/1 Bucks, Missie Baileys, 12/1 Divine River, Gunner´s View, 16/1 The Iron Giant, 20/1 Isa´Af, 50/1 You´re My Son, 100/1 Royalties .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Annambo and MUSANGO make the most appeal here, with marginal preference for the latter. He is better than he showed last time and this drop to selling company will be in his favour.
A seller is not really ideal hunting ground but our ability to discount many via early market prices points to Musango for me for a place only bet here.
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Paradise Dancer, 7/2 Demisemiquaver, Saviour Sand, 10/1 Bonne D´Argent, Power Player, 14/1 Muscovado, My Monna, 16/1 Samahir, 20/1 Virgilia, 50/1 Ela Mario, 100/1 Dickie Deano.
Distinct price tiers
TIER 1 – 9/4, 7/2, 7/2
TIER 2 – 10/1,10/1, 14/1,14/1
TIER 3 – 16/1 and bigger
TIER 1 are the horses to look at for OBVIOUS bets ( the obvious doesn’t always work where horses are concerned though!) and Demisemiquaver for me each way ( or biased place only with a little on the win only market)
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Mr Crystal, 5/1 Grand Art, 11/2 Strobe, 6/1 Los Nadis, 8/1 Stylish Shot, 9/1 Flamed Amazement, 10/1 Lochiel, New World Order, 20/1 Majestic Chief, 33/1 Beaumont Boy, 66/1 Hair Of The Dog, Polish Star .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Mr Crystal has done almost everything right over hurdles but giving a stone away to virtually all his rivals could leave him in trouble against some relatively unexposed novices and LOS NADIS, for one, may well be the type to take advantage.[RA]
An interesting early market – MAjestic Chief out leaves 11 – 3 of these 11 are 100/1 or bigger reduces us to 8. Of those 8, Flamed Amazement is now 25/1 (check out the betting forecast price) and can, we assume be unfancied, bringing us to 7.
Of the 7 remaining, Mr Crystal is obviously fancied by the betting forecaster but is giving nearly a stone away in weight to all but one of his rivals. Currently trading at 11/4, this represents a reasonable place only bet, BUT Strobe is the one for early support now at 10/3 and I will opt for the latter as an each way play
Exercise some discipline at Newbury with good to soft ground
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Swift Gift, 5/2 Wise Hawk, 7/2 Spiritofthetiger, 15/2 Nice Wee Girl, 25/1 Lechero, 33/1 Amyann, 50/1 Admiral Troy, 66/1 Black Or Red, 200/1 Westwood Dawn .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Spiritofthetiger sets a better standard than Nice Wee Girl as far as AW form is concerned, but she looks vulnerable to both SWIFT GIFT and likely improver Wise Hawk with preference for the former whose debut form has been franked plenty of times since and whose stable has had a couple of 2yo winners lately.
NEarly the ideal for an each way option – the only niggle is 2 similarly prices shorties rather than 1. Why ideal? – 9 runners, 5 at 25/1 or larger leaves 4 involved. Spiritofthetiger the obvious candidate each way .