Hi

“WHAT’S UNDER MY KILTER?”

No I’m not talking about a flashing Scotsman, this is a little anomaly I’ve watched on Betfair this week which has a 100% record this week – 4 wins out of 4!

Whoopee you might be saying, BUT wait until I show you what’s under the kilt – all odds have been 20 or higher on Betfair!

So why out of kilter then? Well, what I do is look down the traditional price market on Betfair and look for a horse that has an unnaturally inflated price. Now you might be thinking it’s being laid to high heaven and has no chance BUT NOT SO!

Let’s look at a hypothetical example:

Horse 1 3.5
Horse 2 5.6
Horse 3 6
Horse 4 13
Horse 5 21
Horse 6 15
Horse 7 18

Now Horse 5 here would pique my interest. Can you see that the prices are out of kilter? Ideally they should read downwards in ascending order i.e. horse 2 ‘s price should be higher than horse 1’s and so forth. But Horse 5 breaks that rule. I would also check, personally, the betting forecast price and the price history on the Racing Post just to see the horse’s perceived original price.

Here’s an example from yesterday . . .

The 820 at Folkstone was a 9-runner affair. A tight betting market but one horse stood out Beau Michel. The horse was positioned in the market between 2 horses priced at 13.5. This indicated that its price was “out of kilter” i.e. stood out like a sore thumb. The price was 20. Now this usually could be construed as meaning the horse is not fancied.

But look at the result – 1st: Beau Michel 20/1: Led for 2f, stayed prominent, narrowly hampered over 3f out, led over 2f out, in command final furlong, stayed on well.

Now it’s a pity I can’t reproduce graphics in this eletter as I can get the idea over better with pictures. This has happened 4 times this week. On another occasion, the 2nd named horse on the Betfair market was again at 20 to back. Again it stood out like a sore thumb and again it won.

The next time one occurs I will get a screen print. What might be happening is the horse is being laid to be backed IN RUNNING at over inflated prices – I don’t know, but it’s stretching the coincidence argument a bit too much to think these are just random anomalies. If anything these are great trading horses for the horse traders amongst you.Back before the off and lay at lower odds in running.

Something for you to chew on in the coming weeks if you can follow the Betfair markets. I would go small each way on these selections myself because the place only market odds are very decent, paying about 5/1 for the place. I hope more examples crop up that I can capture and put into the newsletter for you.

It’s been an interesting week. Authorized did win his race against Gorgeous George, and RyanMoore slipped by unnoticed and therefore didn’t catch Authorized’s attention. I still think he’s a great horse who did his job in winning on his side and will have my financial backing in the future. Not so Sixties Icon, who ran like a sixties icon, or a member of Spinal Tap, at Newmarket. Poor thing, the guys at Pedigree Chum are readying themselves as I write. Again, prime lay material if you got your MissMarple hat on. A very poor run last time out, finishing last should have sounded the alarm bells, and at the price was not a horse to back at all.

Talking of laying, I have managed to procure the phone tipping number for JamesJary aka www.dataking2.com and his one a day lay service. Now he doesn’t profess to offer short priced lays daily BUT he does offer lays daily, and I have sussed out his methodology which is hardly rocket science yet he charges £50 per month. James is from the school of the “bleedin’ obvious”. Take one of yesterday’s advices – Flames of Fire in the 900 Fairyhouse. This is a 25-runner bumper with many debutants over soft/yielding ground. It has lay the favourite written all over it doesn’t it? Of course the horse never got a blow in at all. I am saying this to show that you can do it yourself.

The JamesJary service, I must admit, is very good and delivers. Usually we have 2-3 to lay a day and a trade, perhaps a horse that we can back now to lay off at lower odds later. I will continue to monitor it because if it makes money then who cares about the methodology.

Another guy producing the goods is Richard at www.betxtc.com. His tipping service has been superb of late. All selections are evens or as near to as possible. Again, I am availing myself of the 30-day trial, so those who want a clearer picture should wait a month. I have high hopes for this. Again I sense this is a guy with integrity.

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ARGIES STILL DELIVER (BUT DON’T MENTION THE WAR)

I have followed the Argentina team in the Copa America and profited nicely, especially after their 3-0 win over Mexico. Now they face Brazil on Sunday. The big boys aren’t playing for Brazil who have been wholly reliant on Robinho in this competition. Things have got so bad for Brazil that Baptista has even got on the scoresheet! I fancy Argentinaat evens to beat them on Sunday, as they have been by far the better side throughout. An intriguing game in prospect!

POKER RAKE BACK ANYONE?

No, not an argument between a poker player and a gardener, if you want so free pointers on poker rakeback and how to profit from it, you could do no worse than visit http://winmoredollars.blogspot.com/, a free resource to show you how you can profit from this twist on online poker. Take a look – you’ll find it of use I’m sure!

Hope you have a great weekend and thanks to all the testers returning their feedback – great stuff – I wonder, though, if you’d be kind enough to include the system you are trialling in the subject box of the email.

Cheers

Clive