The Patriarch Presents
This month the Patriarch has unearthed a couple of gems, and what’s more, their tips and information are free!
565 points profit for the year. No, it’s not from a tipping service that will charge you a few thousand quid for such a return, nor is it from my new wonder system that I’ll be putting on the market for a similar sum! The good news is that the service is absolutely free and available to anyone with access to a computer. No doubt many of you will be aware of it already, but for those who haven’t yet come across it then perhaps you should take a look now. The Internet site is attheraces.com. Go there, and amongst a host of features (some of which I’ll come back to later) you’ll find their main tipster called Hugh Taylor. I must make it clear that I have no vested interest in promoting this site, or Mr. Taylor, just a desire to pass on something that is free to everyone, and on past performance is well worth your consideration.
Hugh Taylor started his tipping there in March 2009. Every month showed a profit till February this year when a small loss was made, but the overall profit for the year was 565 points. All the results can be checked on the site, and you’ll see that some months made around 100 points while the average is just under 50. He tips on average around two or three horses a day with stakes of 1 to 5 points depending on his idea of the strength of the bet. Sometimes he backs each way. He usually goes for horses in the middle to bigger price range (he had a 20-1 winner the other day, as I write) so you can expect losing runs, but the consistency of his biggish-priced winners seems to take care of these losers.
Currently he has gone two days with five selections and no winners, so perhaps today would be the time to step in. It’s just an idea, but you might consider waiting for some losers and then start a sequence of his bets with perhaps a staking plan where you have a modest increase of stakes until a winner appears. 565 points for the year is a pretty amazing achievement, and I only wish I could be confident enough to expect it to continue. I hope it does, but one has to be realistic too.
P.S. Late news. I can add that he ended May with a 14-1 winner, Sweet Pilgrim in the 4.50 at Chepstow.
And free Speed Ratings
For anyone interested in Speed Ratings the site offers an excellent feature dealing with these. It’s the work of Lawrence Taylor (any relation to Hugh?) and he concentrates on six races per day, although he gives ratings for all the others. In these six races he not only gives the bare ratings for the top four in the race but a full commentary with details of where they ran, and how, their best rating, their last time out rating and also ratings from previous races. He then comes up with a selection for the race. From these six selections he then gives his Nap for the day, plus his Next Best. For speed aficionados I’d recommend a close look at the Nap and the Next Best for the day.
There really is a wealth of information on the site (and I use the word “wealth” deliberately for obvious reasons), and I’ll just mention one or two other features that I’ve found to be very useful. There’s an excellent Draw Guide which analyses the effect of the draw on all our British and Irish courses. The author is a very well-respected expert in that particular area, and his advice on draw effect can make all the difference to a bet. Then there are the Stable Tours. Over 50 of our top trainers, both flat and NH, give a full and detailed appraisal of their most interesting runners and, where possible, the running plans they have for them in the near future. This really is inside information for possible bets.
The return of steamers and drifters
And, wait for it, next we have Steamers and Drifters. Last month I wrote about oddschecker.com and how they showed the steamers that were possible gambles. Well, here at ATR there is something rather similar. Under the heading of Market Movers they list the Top 10 Steamers and the Top 10 Drifters of the day. Lest you think that listing Drifters is of no significance you might care to re-read what I wrote about them in the March issue. And, of course, they can be indications of possible lays. Here at ATR the information is given in this form.
The first column shows the Last Price. The next one the first Show price. The next is the % movement and the final one the ATR Index. A little explanation is required here. The “Last price” shown is the last recorded price before races enter the “Live show” stage when odds tend to fluctuate more erratically. While this gives stability to the figures I’m not sure yet whether they will be more, or less accurate than the fluctuating figures in the “Live show” stage.
The top steamer today as I’m writing is last priced at 4-1. The first Show price is 8-1, so the next column showing % Movement is 50%. The ATR Index figure is 809. This figure is arrived at, apparently, by a range of factors. There is the market share for the horse, the change in the market share and the number of bookmakers offering odds on the horse. The higher the Index figure the better. The next highest Index figure today is, incidentally, only 317. These Index figures are also displayed in Graph form which may be simpler for some people to assimilate, and for the Drifters exactly the same process is employed. There is, however, one big difference. The Steamers’ Graph swings to the left in green and the Drifters’ one goes to the right in red.
The conundrum, though, remains. Every day we see, contrary to our expectations, steamers that lose and drifters that win. To solve that puzzle really would be something.