The Grand National will be upon us tomorrow and, quite frankly, the Krypton Factor is child’s play compared to finding the winner.
There are plenty of free resources for you. I do like At the Races, and, of course, the Racing Post has some great pointers if a 44-runner handicap chase is your idea of the ideal punting platform! (Party pooper, I know!!)
Looking at the past winners, think big!
Winners with odds of 14/1, 33/1, 66/1 and 25/1 comprise the last four National runs. The last three winners were 11-year-olds and the last two winners were carrying under 11 stone.
The last ten trainers and the last ten jockeys have all been different. If this continues, we can strike off these ten jockeys and trainers.
This reduces the field to 22 runners. These are the numbers of the runners as per the race card at www.racingpost.com: 10, 12, 14, 15, 16, 17, 19, 20, 23, 24, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 33,35, 36, 37, 39, 41, 42.
There are some eye-catching trainers without a Grand National win in the last ten years, including Alan King, Robert Waley-Cohen, and Phillip Hobbs.
This is also Tony McCoy’s last year in the Grand National and Shutthefrontdoor is his Grand National horse, but he has won the National in the last ten years.
I am going to back Night in Milan, Saint Are, Wyck Hill and Alvarado each way for the National. Why? Well, these are all horses spread quite evenly through the card, all ridden by a jockey and trained by a trainer who has not won the National in the last ten years, and all carrying under 11 stone. Here’s hoping!
Even if you don’t win the National, www.bet365.com will actually refund every each-way punt on the National to a maximum of £125. It’s open only for new members though, and bets must be placed by midday on Saturday. Worth a go I’d say! Bet365 won’t be allowing any new customers between 10am and 4pm on Saturday, so sign up tonight or early tomorrow. Do make sure you read the terms and conditions. Full details here.
Beware the ides of, erm, April/May
Not quite Shakespearean, I know, but just a warning for you football punters out there that this is silly (football) season.
Some teams, particularly in the earlier starting Championship and Scottish Premier League, have wrapped up their season, or been relegated (Blackpool) so their matches hereon in are effectively dead rubbers.
Think Celtic. Think Blackpool. Think Aberdeen.
Others have season defining matches remaining. Look at the Championship. It’s more exciting than Saturday Swapshop, as there are ten points between the top eight with an available 15 points remaining in the season. If I was a supporter of any of these top eight teams, I would recommend visiting your GP to get your heart checked out, as it’ll be doing a bit of pumping, particularly at 4.44pm each Saturday!
It really is time to get Carole Vorderman or Rachel Riley’s phone number in order to check the permutations if you do your football betting. To be honest, any time is a good time to get Rachel Riley’s phone number, but that’s for another eletter.
If you do want to bet this weekend and for the rest of the season, then factor in teams with motivation versus teams with nothing left to play for. Focus on those with the extreme motivation. Look at Bournemouth last weekend: 0-2 down early on, 2-2 halftime and 4-2 fulltime!
As this season ends, I reflect on how my banker bets have performed for What Really Wins Money readers this season gone. In my Bankers and Blowouts section at www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk, I look to highlight those football matches where the favourite really does seem to have an outstanding chance of winning.
A simple 36-point profit from level stakes since November 2014 is excellent. Of course, with a strike rate in the region of 88%, we can employ more vigorous staking on the assumption, of course, that the future repeats the past.
I am excited about the idea of ‘Banker Bets’. Quite simply, the bookmakers have done all of the work for you. They have said: “We are pricing this team up so short because our odds compilers reckon that team has an outstanding chance of winning.” The only think you have to do, dear punter, is to justify the odds (or if you join www.drt.club or What Really Wins Money old muggins here will do that for you.)
Banker Bets are an ideal addition to your betting portfolio, be it specialisation in rugby, football (as I do), tennis or even place-only betting in the horse racing, you should, with the discipline of research, be able to grow your betting bank nice and comfortably.
And remember this rule you bunch of bankers: ‘The Banker Bets you don’t choose are as important as the ones you do choose!’ Those shortlisted bets you shelve, which go on to lose or draw, are as important as the ones you choose which go on to win.
I’ll be looking at the Flat season next Friday. We have plenty of time as we are in early April. I highlighted those areas from last week’s eletter which I’d like to focus on. Here’s a clue on one topic: look at the winning combination of rider and jockey in Ireland…
Yesterday at Tipperary, we had old stalwarts Manning/Bolger, Heffernan/O’Brien, Weld/Smullen on 7/1, 6/1 and 2/1 winners. In the right races (maidens in this case), these established jockey/trainer combinations can provide you with a staple diet of big-priced winning and placed horses.
I’ll expand upon these killer combos and how to get the most out of them in future eletters during the Irish Flat season.
I’m off now to phone Rachel Riley about football permutations and other things besides….
Have a great weekend!