WRWM Usual Friday eletter
A look at Bumpers.
As promised last week, I thought I would take a look at the performance of favourites in a number of National Hunt categories. This week, it’s the turn of the National Hunt Flat Races, a.k.a. Bumpers. These races tend to be the last races on a typical Jumps race card in Ireland or the U.K. Below is a screenshot of a race card for Jumps racing in Ireland. Can you spot the Bumper, or INH Flat race?
The 5:40 race would be the qualifying race here.
As far as 10 year stats are concerned, those following favourites in these races might need to wear the layer’s hat. A 30 point profit laying all favourites last 30 years isn’t practically useful but gives us a layer’s bias.
10 runner races
Although the bias is towards layers, backing favourites in 10 runner bumpers has proven profitable over time. 3 consecutive winning qualifiers in July and August 2022 suggests this pattern may continue .
Mares
Look out for Mares only National Hunt Flat races. 6 losing favourites in the last 9 ( the winners odds on) suggests we lay favourites in these races.
Sharp courses.
An eye-catching 90 points profit laying favourites in bumpers on courses described as ‘sharp’. These courses are :
Aintree, Bangor, Brighton, Cartmel, Catterick, Chester, Epsom, Fakenham, Folkstone, Fontwell, Goodwood, Hereford, Kelso, Kempton, Lingfield, Market Rasen, Musselburgh, Newton Abbot, Plumpton, Ripon, Sedgefield, Southwell, Stratford, Taunton, Warwick, Windsor, Wolverhampton,Chelmsford.
Warning. 8 of the last 9 favourites have won in these courses. Not what us layers need. But it is the long-term that sees the profit.
Hexham
Hexham has a standout 51% strike rate for favourites in Bumpers. Backers take note.
Newcastle
Is a relative newcomer to jumps. A long term profit laying favourites in bumpers. And in 2021 and 2022, 14 of the last 16 favourites have lost.
Distance.
Lay favourites in 2 miles and 2 furlong bumpers. 13 of the last 15 qualifying favourites have lost in these races which notably occur most often in Ireland. Long term profits and recent 2021/2022 gains.
Jockey Aidan Coleman.Aidan Coleman has a near 50% strike rate on favourites in bumpers. Get em while they’re hot!He has won on the last 5 2022 races.
Henry Brooke catches the eye on favourites. A very discerning jockey, he had only 2 qualifiers last year and won on both. 3/3 wins in 2018, 1/2 in 2019 and 2/2 wins in 2020. Keep an eye out for the elusive Mr Brooke.
Nico de Boinville and Nicky Henderson.
Avoid this dynamic duo on favourites. 11/13 qualifiers in 2022 saw these 2 lose when pairing on a bumper favourite.
1 run in the last year.
The best profit for the layer so far. Laying any favourite in a bumper when they have had just the one run in the last year turned 190 points profit and 108 points profit laying to a fixed liability. Take note. Find qualifiers at www.racingpost.com by clicking on the favourite’s name on the race card, and noting the date of said horse’s last race. Simple. One run in the last year only signals a lay.
This profit continues with just one run in the last 3 months. It seems an apparent lack of ‘freshness’ sees us targeting these favourites.
DSLR
Days Since Last Run – lay favourites coming off the back of a 28-42 day absence since their last race. Plenty of qualifiers in 2022 and plenty of losers.
Conclusions.
National Hunt Flat Races are unique. The only Flat Races on a Jumps coupon . The above distinctions have profited long-term and this year . I will look at more jumps niches next week as well as a preview of the Soccer World Cup 2022 which will be with us soon. Have a Great Weekend.