Some punters do look out for horses who have won their last races. And for good reason. As some have argued, don’t back a horse to do something it has never done before., like marry Prince Charles.
Here’s how to spot a Winner Last Time out at www.racingpost.com
At any race card at www.racingpost.com, look out for a horse with a 1 on the far right of the form column.
Name me the 2 horses who won last time out.
If you answered Robin Des Mana and Dunbar then go to the top of the class.
Looking through the Betfinder at www.proformracing.com ( a great resource to try out horse racing backing and laying ideas), I noted an ample supply of winners from horses who had won their last race as Robin Des Mana and Dunbar had.
Now here’s the twist.
I noted some more frequent winners were found when the horse was also a Course and Distance Winner. Coincidentally, Robin Des Mana is a Course and Distance winner. Can you tell me how I know?
Simple. The CD next to the horse’s name tells me that the horse has won over today’s course and distance.
So, not only has the horse won its last race, the horse has also proven itself a winner at the course and over today’s distance.
One last element which seems to have increased the frequency of winners was in looking for winners last time out, who are also course and distance winners and who are up in class in today’s race.
We can check Robin Des Mana’s previous form by simply clicking on the horse’s name at www.racingpost.com
We only need look at the last race. The C5 you see tells me the class of the last race – C5 tells me that the horse ran in a Class 5 Hc( Handicap) Ch (Chase) last time out.
The title of today’s race will tell me whether the horse is ‘up in class’
No, today’s race is Class 5, clearly bracketed in the race title.
Had the race been a Class 4 or higher, I would have backed Robin Des Mana as a qualifier.
Here’s a highlight of a couple of days over the last 2 years where these 3 factors spit out an impressive set of winners.
23rd August 2020 – 1st 20/1, 14/1, 15/8, 3/1
27th July 2021 – a winner at 50/1 paid out 69.91 for the win and 13.91 for the place to Betfair SP
I now have the seeds of a potentially profitable idea. There were a lot of double figure odds winners and a lot of placers as well. As you see on 27th July 2021, the winner paid out 13/1 just for placing!!
There are 2 possible qualifiers today :
- 13:50 Market Rasen – Railway Muice
- 20:26 Wolverhampton – Time Shadow
Check these 2 horses out for yourself and see if they meet the criteria.
I will start to record selections from now on, with a view to finding an attendant staking plan which could maximise profits, and will back test to see if each-way betting is a viable option, whether specific race courses or race types are best targeted.
An improving frequency of winners included Trainers and Jockeys who are good together. The concern with this element is that it is not measurable.
I thought I would look at just winners last time out over the last 10 years and see the best circumstances for backing or laying these qualifiers.
Lay Last time out winners if they have travelled between 101 to 125 miles to the race course. ( By clicking at the race course name at www.racingpost.com you can unearth the distance travelled stats.
In the Signpost section, note the Traveller’s check stats.
Lay any winners last time out who are 8th in the betting. A 495 points profit .
Lay any winners last time out wearing blinkers. 373 points profit.
Notice the b to the right of the horse’s name. That signifies the headgear, b for blinkers.
Lay winners last time out in 16 furlong ( 2 mile) races – 500 points.
Back winners last time out at Haydock – 494 points.
Do note that the lay odds for qualifying selections will vary, and the higher the odds, the higher the liability so be very careful . These profit figures are excellent but the odds for the layer will not be uniform.
I’ll update you on how winners last time out, who are course and distance winners, and up in class, get on. So many double figured winners over time. Can that be replicated moving forward?