Chase favourites.
We have already looked at bumper favourites, and hurdle favourites. To bring our look at jumps racing favourites to its conclusions, we look at chase favourites today. Stats are taken from the last 10 years, and backer’s profits are to Betfair Starting Price.
3 miles
Backing chase favourites over this specialist distance has made 72 points profit to Betfair SP
Longest losing sequence of 19 so bear that in mind.
Trainer Colin Tizzard.
It seems we can lay any chase favourite trained by Colin Tizzard. £100 into £705 laying to a Backer’s Stake of £10.
Laying to a fixed liability of £10 turned £100 into £310.46 . Fixed liability does appeal to those seeking to control risk.
February
Yes, a focus on backing chase favourites in February has turned £100 into £1119 to £10 stakes. The graph is not as smooth as I would like but long term shows an upward left to top right direction.
Sire Kayf Tara
The progeny of Sire Kayf Tara don’t tend to be a punter’s friend. Layers see £100 turned into £740 to a backer’s stake of £10 when chase favourites.
Long term looks good but no profit in real terms since the end of 2018. Lay 1-4 staking might appeal with that in mind. Losses put to one side and a £100 bank turned into £1130 using £10 starting stake.
Sire Mahler
From one extreme to the other. The progeny of sire Mahler tend to excel over chase fences for the backer when favourite.
79 points profit. A small dip of late but a return to winning form recently.
Trainer Venetia Williams
Venetia looks like she gets a tune out of her chase horses when favourite. 73 points profit to level stakes for the backer.
Break even for 2022 but long term potential is strong.
Trainer Willie Mullins
The maestro Irish trainer’s chase favourites are backable. The market tends to get it right. 91 points profit, a 51.5% strike rate and average odds of 2.65. 7 wins in his last 9 in September and October 2022 suggests this can continue moving forward.
15 runner races
Lay chase favourites in 15 runner races. £100 into £726 to £10 backer’s stake.
Lay 1-4 staking plan works here too.£100 into £1579
Chase Favourites – 9 runs only in the last year.
I assume here exactly 9 runs in the last year. The software has not clarified. 69 points profit for the backer suggests it is worth following.
Look also at chase favourites with 5 runs in the last 3 months making backers 73 points profit.
15-21 DSLR
Lay chase favourites coming off the back of 15-21 DSLR (days since last run). 137 points profit really catches the eye.
Those looking to control risk will still profit well. As an example, laying these qualifiers to lose £10 turned £100 into £829 and the bank never hit a negative point.
If you like these deep dives, I write a ‘What does the formbook say?’ article for each month’s edition of What Really Wins Money. There are lots of profitable long term horse racing angles out there. These articles look to marry those angles with the optimal staking plan.
Have a great weekend.