This week’s eletter concentrates on the performance of favourites in Hurdles races over the last 10 years. There are some very good patterns to profit, including occasions where the betting bank quite simply moved into profit and never had a negative balance.
BSP stands for Betfair Starting Price and is encouraged as, for backers, BSP performance is far better than ISP ( Industry Starting Price a.k.a. the bookies’ odds!)
Hurdle favourites 4 year olds.
Layers target favourites in hurdles aged 4 years old.£100 into £225 laying to win £10 ( called the Backer’s Stake when laying). I particularly like the profit graph which hints at future profits.
After a small dip, profits continue afoot. A relatively good upwards left to right trend.
Fixed liability gets more interesting…
Looking to risk just £10 per qualifier has turned £100 into £1114. Now that is exciting. At all times, your risk is known but does not compromise on profit. The vertical movement upwards suggests there is an odds discrepancy there but even accounting for this, a reasonable profit has accrued.
Our old Showbiz Pal Lay 1-4 Staking has worked well, £100 into £5462 starting with a £10 stake. To remind you, this staking plan puts aside losses to be retrieved gradually over time. And it is working!
DISTANCE TRAVELLED – 31-40 miles
Look for horses who are not travelling too far from their stables, particularly when favourite. 77 points to level stakes for the backer,this is a profit maximised by use of the slightly riskier Fibonacci staking plan where we back along a staking scale of 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 , moving up the line after a loss and back to 1 after a win. £100 into £696 for those who want to risk this approach ( that’s to £1 stakes!)
FILLIES LAY
I don’t personally recall hurdles races for fillies? The form software points to ‘f’ which I take to be fillies ( female horse aged 4 and younger)
An unspectacular profit for backers to level stakes of 61 points but the betting bank was never in negative. There have been 3 periods of draw down which tend to be corrected.
Lay 1-4 staking plan really sky rockets profits. £100 into £1966 with a £10 starting stake.
SIRE
There is some good profit to be had focusing on the progeny of a certain sire.
Presenting.
Progeny of the sire Presenting are to be layed when favourite.
95 points profit to level stakes and with a comfortable upward projecting profit graph.
Laying to lose a fixed liability of £10 has increased profit from £100 betting bank to £566.99
The profit using Lay 1-4 staking is impressive. £100 to 2458.50. The profit graph is a little choppy.
Sire Oscar
You won’t be a grouch backing the progeny of Oscar when favourite in hurdles.
93 points profit backing to level stakes and another impressive profit graph which augurs well for the future.
If you want some fun and greater possible returns, Fibonacci backing (£1 start) turned £100 into £913. The sequence is 1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34 , moving up after a loss and reverting to £1 after a winner.
Fixed staking.
Fixed staking is also known as ‘Target Profit Per Race’ staking. A nominal 5% of bank is set as the target. For illustrative purposes I have used £1000 betting bank with 5% of a rolling bank as fixed staking plan. This uses compounding. The 5% will be the 5% of the current betting bank size. As it grows, your target will grow.
£1000 into £5723 looking to win £50 per qualifier is an excellent return and a possible alternative for you to maximise profits.
Blinkers are layable
Any favourite in a hurdle wearing blinkers is layable. Blinkers are normally applied to increase focus but have consistently been a pointer to lay.
£100 into £188 laying to a backer’s stake of £1 sees the profit graph consistently upward bottom-left -to-top-right moving.
Lay 1-4 staking sees a similarly encouraging profit graph, turning £100 into £2492 with a £10 starting Backer’s Stake.
TAUNTON
Taunton is a good course for favourite backers in hurdles races. The best profit is achieved using Fixed staking, £1000 into £4845 looking to win £50 per qualifying race ( illustrative purposes only, change target profit to suit your needs). Notable progress upwards recently. I like the general trend. Only 2 major areas of drawdown have been successfully overcome.
16 runner races
Laying hurdle favourites in 16 runner races has proven profitable to a fixed liability. Here, £10 fixed liability turned £100 into £457 with a notable recent upwards profit graph which I hope will continue on into the future.
So there you have it. The lowdown on hurdles favourites. I will do a quick accompanying video outlining where you can find all of the pertinent angles when targeting hurdles favourites. These ideas are long term ideas. You have to be in this for the long haul to see a profit. Ready preference for me would be on angles where the betting bank, at no stage, dipped below its original starting amount. The profit graphs I hope will give you confidence that patterns can continue on into the future.