I will reserve the ‘deep dive’ for Chase favoourites to the What Really Wins Money newsletter. There I look at the patterns and the ideal staking plans which have kept stakes low and maximised returns.
In this eletter you’ll get the standout stats for favourites in Chase Races over the last 10 years. Ideally timed of course as we are in the midst of the Jumps season. So, let’s take a look
What stands out for me?
Take a look at 3 mile chase races . Backing favourites in those races turned a 106 points profit.
The longer the distance, the righter the market? Right?
Take a note of Days Since Last Run. As it says, this stat looks at the performance of chase favourites based on how long /short they have returned to racing since their last run.
Laying chase favourites coming off the back of a 15-21 day absence turned a 236 points profit.
Interestingly, backing Chase favourites coming off the back of an 8-14 day absence turned a 107 points profit.
Weight matters!
Laying the favourite when the favourite is top weight has turned a 179 points profit. So, although the market suggests its the best horse in the race, and the handicapper agrees , it’s worth taking these on.
These are the real standout stats. What these bare stats lack is the ‘deep dive’ I do for the newsletter. We need to know strike rates, for instance, longest losing runs, longest winning runs, average odds, and the best performing ‘price bands’ to really make these stats work for us.
I also like looking at other staking plans in the newsletter. Some staking plans out perform traditional basic level stakes.
What would I take out of these stats? Well, I really like the top weight when favourite in a chase race.
Here’s an example of a potential qualifier today. ( I say potential because the horse is favourite in the Betting Forecast – you would need to make sure the horse is actual favourite in the live odds market)
It doesn’t matter what type of a chase race it is, handicap or non handicap, the bare stats didn’t specify that. Here we have Go Millie Go as the top weight. See the WGT column? The horse carries the most weight.
Go Millie Go is provisional betting forecast favourite and is layable if favourite for this race. A long term level stakes profit augurs well for this really easy to implement chase favourites lay strategy.