I was pleased with my rugby calls in last week’s eletter. England were far too short to win at halftime/fulltime and so it proved. Over 30.5 points also came in, and a lay of Samoa at odds of 1.4 was also successful.

The Arc De Triomphe was really dominated by the first 2 in the betting, with Golden Horn, one of those 6 horses I mentioned most like to win, winning in style for Frankie Dettori.

This week is dominated mostly by International Football. I do hope you have used that correct score permutation I have shared with you numerous times in this here eletter… Why? Well, we see short-priced favourites – and by short-priced, I mean teams which are literally unbackable.

Here are the matches from Wednesday this week and their attendant scorelines:

5pm – Serbia U21 v Andorra U21 – 1.03 home – 5-0
6pm – Belgium U19 v San Marino U19 – 1.01 home – 9-0
7:30pm – San Marino U21 v Croatia U21 – 1.05 away – 0-3

Here is the match from Thursday this week: 5pm – Georgia v Gibraltar – 1.05 home – 4-0

Can you see that potential wins to nil are excellent candidates for that correct score permutation? Potential wins to nil mean we have fewer correct scores to choose from for our correct score permutations. Taking away 0-0, 1-0 and 2-0 scorelines, we select our correct scores from 3-0 all the way up to 9-0.

If you are a member of What Really Wins Money, go to www.whatreallywinsmoney.co.uk and use the search facility to search for ‘correct score permutation’ for a refresher. Alternately, this link will help you.

I remind you because today sees more teams whose prices are so short they make Ronnie Corbett a Goliath! Here’s a list of them:

2pm – Netherlands U19 v Liechtenstein U19 – 1.01 home
2pm – San Marino U19 v Sweden U19 – 1.02 away
530pm – Gibraltar U19 v France U19 – 1.01 away
545pm – Belgium U21 v Malta U21 – 1.05 home
745pm – Spain v Luxembourg – 1.02 home
745pm – Switzerland v San Marino – 1.01 home

Have some fun with the permutation and if you hit the winning permutation combination, then the Milky Bars are on you!!

Do keep this correct score permutation fresh in your mind when the International Football Break is upon us.

England play tonight at home to Estonia. England merely need a draw tonight in order to qualify, with Estonia needing a win, in the hope that they can keep their very slim Euro qualification dreams alive.

Germany last night only needed a draw. And what happened? Ireland won 1-0. I would certainly not be a backer of England at odds of 1.16 tonight, as I believe teams which don’t really need to win rarely do.

So do be careful and make sure you check whether teams need to win their matches in these later Euro qualifiers.

It’s all in the odds…

I spoke last week about the odds being a good indicator for what to expect. This is the reason why I put forward a correct score win to nil permutation for very short-odds teams.

I am currently recording odds on a number of different levels in order to try and find a pattern we can exploit. I showed you those German matches last week where there was no strong favourite:
I am now recording all of these matches and the scorelines in the hope that we can find a good pattern, such as a possible Asian handicap bet, or whether the score draw is more alive when there is no very strong favourite.

I have also begun recording apparent co-favourite races within the Betting Forecast in the Racing Post.

Here’s an example: 505 Tramore Betting Forecast: 4/1 Admiral Bob, 4/1 Killeen Elegance

Can you see that the Racing Post betting forecast shows 2 co-favourites? This suggests to me that the race is competitive and the favourite may be layable for profit long-term. I am recording the results for the Betting Forecast favourite (in this race Admiral Bob) and for the actual favourite, if different.

It’s early days, but it seems that the Betting Forecast favourite keeps losing and the actual favourite has won more often than not. I will certainly keep this up and report back if I see a profitable angle.

Tennis trading, simply put

The Chinese and Japanese Opens have been a welcome foil during this Football International week.
Here’s a simple way to trade…

Take a screenshot of the matches. In true Blue Peter form, here’s one I made earlier:
Now, keep the tennis coupon up and use the alt-tab function on your computer to intermittently switch between matches. Note any matches where the favourite (David Ferrer at 1.33 or Novak Djokovic at 1.09, above, are ready examples) starts to struggle. David Ferrer did lose the first set in his last match so that interests me. You will see when these favourites start to struggle because their odds will rise.

Consider backing them at higher odds if they get into trouble. Trade out if they fight back. It has been a profitable method for me this week. I stick to players I know and back them especially if they lose the first set.

It’s simplistic but effective. I will be writing and researching a betting blueprint for tennis trading for my trading club www.drt.club and will be releasing snippets for you in future eletters.

Next week I’ll be updating you on what October’s scary Halloween edition of What Really Wins Money has to offer.