I write a monthly article in What Really Wins Money called ‘ What does the Formbook say about….’ where I look at the last 10 years’ worth of data, with a focus largely on the performance of favourites.
In this eletter, I share with you some Christmas angles, specifically in this case the performance of favourites in Christmas meetings between 26th December and 31st December .
Backing profits are recorded to Betfair Starting Price . Mince pies to the ready….let’s take a look.
Bottom Line.
The bottom line may provide the bias – which seems to be towards laying. A 23 point profit laying favourites between December 26th and December 31st. It doesn’t necessarily give carte blanche to lay all selections ( albeit 13 of the last 14 in 2021 lost!), it does give us an idea that laying may be more profitable than backing. Let’s see if that’s true.
A horse to watch at Limerick?
Itsnotinit has won his 2 races at Limerick in 2020 and 2021 ( 28th December). Watch out for the hatrick this year if the horse runs.
Bonjour Rodders
French horses struggle between 26th-31st December when favourite. If you want to target French horses when favourite, lay to a fixed liability ( e.g. look to lose £10 rather than win £10.) Fixed liability has turned £100 into £329 .
Oppose 7 year olds.
I remember being 7 years old at Christmas with my new Star Wars presents so no wonder 7 year olds, when favourite, have been more layable than backable.
Laying to a fixed liability ( £10 to lose) has really produced consistency. 60 points profit since 2019.
201-250 miles travelled to race course.
This is not a hindrance for backers. Profits in 2020 and 2021 augurs well for 2022. 15.5 points profit since 2020 for the backer of long distance travelling favourites.
41-50 miles travelled to the course.
I would have thought that horses not travelling so far would be the backers’ choice. But no, laying any favourite travelling between 41-50 miles to the race course has made a fixed liability profit in 3 of the last 4 years, including 2020 and 2021.
What a mare!
Laying favourites when mares has turned a 46 point profit to level stakes.
Sire Flemensfirth
Any favourite sired by Flemensfirth has had a poor post-Christmas. 12 of his last 14 progeny have lost when favourite.
Weight rank 5
What do I mean? Simply put, the horse 5th in the weights. 3 consecutive year’s worth of profit backing favourites when 5th in the weights to level stakes.
Fresh return
Back any favourite post Christmas coming off the back of a 0-7 days absence since last run.
A 10 point profit for the backer in 2021 and 16 points profit since 2020.
Ho Ho Ho Venetia.
Venetia Williams has made profit last 2 years ( 4 horses only) for the backer when her horses are favourite. She may not have many qualifiers this year, but look out just incase.
Too many mince pies for our Gordon?
Trainer Gordon Elliot’s horses, when favourite, look layable. He keeps eeking out a level stakes profit for the layer each year recently.
Townend and Mullins stuffed?
This is an interesting angle. Since 2017, laying horses ridden by Paul Townend and trained by Willie Mullins made a profit in 2017, 2018, 2019, loss 2020, profit 2021.
This profit is maximised via fixed liability because these 2 tend to see their favourites at very short odds.
Class D/4 All Weather for the backer.
Favourite backers focus on Class D races on All weather race courses 26th-31st December. 4 consecutive years profit . A simple angle and one likely over looked given the high class racing over Christmas.
11 runner races – a backer’s Christmas dream!
A 41 point profit to Betfair SP backing favourites in 11 runner races over the Boxing Day week. The profit graph is consistently upwards projecting.
14 runner races
Lay favourites in 14 runner races. Consistent profits in recent years . More profit can be made laying to a fixed liability ( £100 into £255 to £10 fixed liability).
Conclusions.
Those brussel sprout burps will herald Boxing Day. There are some great angles to follow in the Boxing Day week from 26th December to 31st December.
What stands out for me?
- Lay 7 year olds when favourites.
- Back favourites in 11 runner races and Lay favourites in 14 runner races
- Away from the spotlight, back favourites on the all weather in Class d (4) races.
- Back favourites coming off a 0-7 day since last run.
I will do an accompanying video for you .
Merry Xmas and enjoy those Turkey sandwiches, Turkey and Icecream dessert, Turkey baguettes et al!