I think I’ve had too much Guinness already. Cheltenham is upon us next week. The Festival put on by the horse racing community to , of course, celebrate my birthday on the 13th March. Such a nice touch! I would have been happy with a keg of craft ale to be honest.

Having crunched the numbers over the last 10 years, here are the key stats which caught my eye, regarding favourites only for the Festival.

  • Back favourites in 2 mile and 4 furlong races.
  • Nicky Henderson and Henry de Bromhead are the 2 trainers to follow when their horses are favourite.
  • Rachel Blackmore is the most consistent jockey recently on favourites.
  • Note any favourites who last ran at Cheltenham and back them each-way. An excellent 5 year trend.
  • Laying favourites when they are top weight has tended to profit over time and recently.
  • Lay any favourite finishing 3rd or 4th last time out ( LTO)
  • Avoid Paul Nicholls when he trains a favourite ( or lay !) if his 10 year woeful strike rate on favourites continues.
  • Favourite horses aged 7 are to be backed

I hope these stats can help you on your way. Will Rachel Blackmore take over the mantle from Barry Geraghty as the punter’s favourite Cheltenham jockey when on Favourites?