The Long Bad Thursday - What Really Wins Money

Not to be mixed up with the Long Good Friday starring the late Bob Hoskins who I am beginning to resemble.

This week has mostly been spent dreading my annual visit to Thai immigration to get my visa.  The last time I went, it took 13 hours. Yesterday’s Long Bad Thursday was not quite as bad, only 8 hours of government bureaucracy.

Thankfully, they have decided to let me remain in Thailand, which is a Boris Johnson free zone.

Although weather is not really an issue where I am, in the UK, all-weather race courses dominate proceedings. Here’s a look at the basic 10 year stats at the main All-weather venues.

Wolverhampton

Distance

For you favourite layers over the last 10 years, you’d have made a 26 point profit to level stakes with a 10% return on investment over 16 furlongs ( 2 miles).

For backers, there is no profit to be made from Industry SP, but to Betfair SP, 9 furlongs ( 1 mile 1 furlong), 12 furlongs ( 1 mile 4 furlongs) and 6 furlongs, yields 38, 34, and 30 points profits.

Number of Runners

5 runner races, 7 runner races and 12 runner races are clearly the best for favourite backers with 59, 42 and 34 points profits to Betfair SP.

Again this distinction must be made, given the 60 point loss to Industry SP for 12 runner races.

Days since last run ( DSLR)

The magic number tends to be 30 days since last run ( you can see this figure in the traditional race card near the horse’s name). The top 10 profit makers for favourite backers all fell within 34 days.

I had to limit to the top 10 but it does provide a consistent pattern. Favourites should be relatively fit!

The Draw

Favourites drawn in stalls 5 and 6 have simply bossed the stats.  86 points profit from Stall 6 for favourites and 37 points profit from Stall 5 to Betfair SP.

Let’s move to the relatively young Chelmsford

Chelmsford.

Chelmsford is a relatively new all-weather venue. Are there any patterns emerging for favourites early on in this venue’s career?

Distance

14 and 13 points profit to Betfair SP for 1 mile 2 furlong and 1 mile 5 furlong races, rather bucking the trend for all-weather venues to see favourites falter at these middle distances.

Number of runners

13 and 12 runner races are clearly good for favourites.  26 and 11 points profit to Betfair SP respectively. 13 runner races have a good return on investment of 24% and are , importantly, equally as profitable for favourites to Industry SP.

DSLR ( days since last run)

I will record the top 10 by days since last run  –  The top 10 is dominated by favourites running within 31 days of their last run. Freshness the key.

 

The Draw

10;2;4;1;5;11 the draws hitting the top 6 in terms of profitability for favourites. There is no discernible pattern here . It would seem low draws dominate but then favourites drawn 10 have seen an 11 point profit and 21% return on investment.

Kempton

Favourite backers should look to focus on 6 furlong, 9 furlong, 10 furlong and 11 furlong races ( 8 furlongs is a mile, so 9 furlongs is 1 mile and 1 furlong).

The best profit is produced by backing to Betfair SP so note that. 69 points profit backing favourites in 6 furlongs. 80 points profit combined from 9-11 furlong races inclusive in the last 10 years.

For the layer, it is the middle distances which I’ve found to be consistently troublesome for favourites. 12 and 15 furlong races ( 1 mile 4 furlongs to 1 mile 7 furlongs) produced a combined 57 points profit for the layer.

9 and 11 runner races stand out massively profit wise for favourite backers. 123 points profit combined.

Favourite backers should focus only on horses who last ran within the last 38 days. The top 10 performers all came within this bracket.

So, favourite backers at Kempton, note

  • 9-11 furlong races ; 6 furlong races
  • 9 and 11 runner races to maximise profit
  • Favourite must have run within the last 30 days.

Layers focus on

  • 1 mile 4 furlong and 1 mile 7 furlong races

Lingfield

Using the same criteria – last 10 years and a focus on favourites – Lingfield’s stats tells us to focus on 6-8 furlong distances. Sprint distances are historically strong for favourites.

Again, middle distance races are good for the layer, 1 mile 4 furlong and 1 mile 5 furlong races are the most profitable for the layer.

7 , 10 , and 15 runner races are the most profitable for the favourite backer. 61 points profit for 7 runner races for favourite backers.

Note with 15 runner races, the return on investment has been 107.51% to Betfair SP and 87.07 to ISP. 7 winners in 13 races.

Ideally we want to focus on favourites running within 30 days. There is one anomolous stat. 52 days sees 12 wins from 20 runners coming back from running 52 days ago.

And to the draw, it seems clear. Those drawn 6/7/8/10 profit the most with 10/7 the best for Industry SP backers.

So at Lingfield,

  • 6-8 furlong races inclusive
  • Lay middle distance favourites 1 mile 4 furlongs and 1 mile 5 furlongs
  • 7, 10 and 15 runner fields maximise profit
  • Look for a favourite running within 30 days of his last run.
  • We end this all-weather favourites stats series with a look at Southwell and Newcastle.
  • So here’s a look at these 2 venues by draw ; number of runners ; days since last run and distance
  • Southwell

A wholly unique fibresand surface amongst fellow all-weather tracks.

I have looked at Southwell racecourse in isolation before because of its unique aspects.

Draw

  • 5-13-9-14 are the stalls with most profit for the favourites. Not necessarily any strong patterns bar the fact that stalls 13 and 14 are next to each other. Stalls 5 and 13 are the most profitable both to Betfair SP and Industry SP. I do like to see Industry SP profit.
  • 64% and 103% returns on investment from stalls 13 and 14 might narrow the focus for favourites running from these stalls.

Number of runners.

  • 13 and 14 are the magic numbers again 13 and 14 runner races at Southwell are most profitable for favourites over the last 10 years. 42 points profit combined to Betfair SP. 13 runner races 11 points profit to Industry SP

Days since last run ( DSLR)

  • Turning out to be a vital piece of the jigsaw as consistently we see that favourites perform best when running 30 days or so since their last race.
  • The top 6 dates are all within 23 days since last run

Distance

  • Sprint distances are the best distances for favourites at Southwell. Less ‘kick-back’?
  • 46 points profit to Betfair SP backing favourites over 5 furlongs, 19 points profit to Betfair SP over 6 furlongs.
  • 8-14-4-12 furlongs are the distances where it’s best to lay favourites consistently. We see a return to middle distances ( where 8 furlongs is a mile).
  • 8 furlongs, 1 mile 6 furlongs and 1 mile 4 furlong races dominate. We have seen this poor performance in middle distances previously.

Newcastle

Draw

  • Fewer races to analyse of course. Early doors, Stalls, 11, 3 and 14 are the most profitable for favourite backers. 54 points profit Betfair SP in totality for these 3 stalls. Stall 3 looks anomolous given the other 2 stalls are double figure stall numbers.

Number of runners

  • There seems to be a pattern with runners – 11, 14 and 13 runner races are best performers on the allweather at Newcastle for favourites. 55 points profit to Betfair SP. , marginally less so to Industry SP
  • Rather strangely, 12 runner races, produced a 32 points profit for favourite layers! Hmmm! A big enough sample? An anomolous run from a small sample?

Days since last run

  • 6 of the top 7 performing days are within 27 days of last run. The anomoly is 45 days which comes from only 12 races.

Distance

  • 5 and 7 furlong races produced a total 26 points profit for favourite backers. 6

So, a quick look at the major all-weather venues. How often do middle distance races get a mention ( 1 mile 2 furlongs to, I suppose, 2 miles).

I hope you find these stats useful. Have a great weekend

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