Well, that’s been some week. Argentina losing to Saudi Arabia, and Ze Germans losing to Japan ( I did notice Germany’s lack of a 2nd goal in pre-World Cup matches but contrasted that with 5 goals v Italy and 3 v England but that lack of 2nd goal cost them v Japan).
4 0-0’s already is in stark contrast with the single 0-0 in the Group stages in 2018’s World Cup.
Today, and onwards, is ‘moving day’ to use golf parlance.
Teams who have won their opening matches can clinch qualification with a 2nd consecutive win ( Netherlands and England from today’s matches). There are a whole raft of teams for whom it is ‘must win territory’ . These include Wales and Iran ( draw and loss openers). Wales must ensure that they equal or exceed USA’s result today. The onus is more on Iran to win given their loss in their opener. Qatar and Senegal sees must win for both teams. Senegal are the highest ranked African side and may have Sadeo Mane back. I see a repeat of Qatar v Ecuador? Netherlands v Ecuador won their opening matches. A win guarantees qualification ( the last match can be a squabble regarding finishing 1st or 2nd). An England win today guarantees qualification but not placings. USA must do something to better Wales’ result and show themselves 2nd in the Group with 1 match to play.
The value still remains in the Tournament betting markets. If you fancy Harry Kane to follow up his Golden Boot of 2018, his odds are very appealing at about 25/1 on Betfair. One goal today will impact upon those odds to allow you a cash out profit.
I did back Antoine Griezemann in the Golden Boot at odds of 160. With Benzema and Nkunku out for France, his odds plummeted to 50 to allow a great cash out without him even scoring. He is out to 250 now and still worth a nibble, particularly if he gets playing time. He scored 4 goals in 2018 and could be the stop gap ( albeit a quality stop gap) that Didier Deschamps requires given the small injury crisis to the forward line.
Elsewhere, penalties have been cropping up with regularity this World Cup, encouraged no doubt by VAR covering every little appeal.
At williamhill.com (and other bookies no doubt) there is a Penalty option.
About 2/1 for a Penalty to be taken. A 10 point profit so far backing this Penalty to be taken in all matches so far this World Cup. Worthy of your attention moving forward? Back this in every match to level stakes? Or, Penalty taken in the 1st half /Penalty taken in the 2nd Half at odds of 6.00 and 4.5 will pay out more , won’t it, than 2/1 if we see a penalty in one of the halves?
And before I go…. here’s an interesting football idea I found online. The majority of my bookmaker accounts are gubbed so it is hard for me to trial this idea. I will share it will you here. Let me know your thoughts regarding its practical implementation!
£50 to £50,000 – a realistic target?
I do get some weird and wonderful betting ideas across my desk. This particular strategy caught my attention.
I am a big fan of staking plans. Money management is an integral part of successful, profitable betting.
Marry the right staking plan with the right betting strategy and we’re on our way to success. Right?
This particular strategy is based around a unique football market. I have found the market at www.bet365.com It is a market which used to be available at www.betfair.com but no more.
The market is called the ‘Time of First Goal Brackets’ market.
Odds are provided below . Your job is to call the time of the first goal. These are the odds offered by www.bet365.com ( the odds will change per match and in-running).
The system creator’s focus is on the 9 markets involving goals ( we dismiss the ‘No Goal’ market). The system creator claims that we will profit if we find just the one goal.
A 50 point bank is recommended.
Here’s the idea. The system creator suggests that the odds will be 3.00 or higher ( in some cases we will have to wait in-play until the odds hit 3.00).
Is this decimal odds of 3.00 ( 2/1 fractional) or is 3.00 is shorthand for 3/1. I assume the former.
Your goal with these goals markets is to win at least one bet for every 9 bets placed ( in short hand, you need to find a match where at least one goal will be scored).
You place your first bet in the 1-10 minute market, securing odds of 3.00 minimum. If a goal is scored, you win and stop there. If no goal, then you place your second bet in the 11-20 minute market, again securing odds of 3.00 minimum. Do so with each 10 minute block until a goal is scored.
Here’s how the bank will progress over time.
| Number of bets placed | Bank |
| 75 | 100 |
| 150 | 201 |
| 250 | 510 |
| 350 | 1295 |
| 400 | 2060 |
| 450 | 3280 |
| 500 | 5222 |
| 600 | 13230 |
| 650 | 21060 |
| 700 | 33526 |
| 743 | 50000 |
The Staking Plan.
The Staking Plan is a progressive one.
| Bet | Stake – Points – stop at a goal and move to a new match |
| 1 – 1-10 minutes | 0.2 – stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 2 if no goal. |
| 2 – 11-20 minutes | 0.6 – stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 3 if no goal. |
| 3 – 21-30 minutes | 1.1- stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 4 if no goal. |
| 4 – 31-40 minutes | 1.9- stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 5 if no goal. |
| 5 – 41-50 minutes | 3.1- stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 6 if no goal. |
| 6 – 51-60 minutes | 4.9- stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 7 if no goal. |
| 7 – 61-70 minutes | 7.6- stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 8 if no goal. |
| 8 – 71-80 minutes | 11.7- stop if goal scored. Move to Bet 9 if no goal. |
| 9 – 81-90 minutes | 17.8- stop if goal scored. 48.9 point loss if no goal. |
A total stake of 48.9 points.
The ideal is to get minimum odds of 3.00 ( we assume this is decimal odds). We stop when a goal is scored and move to another match.
Only bet 1 match at a time.
Conclusions.
More information can be found at www.goalmoney.biz
If you are making money from this strategy, will bookmakers sit back and allow you to? No! That is my one concern. So, you may want to look for other bookmakers/ betting exchanges offering this goal times market and work with these as well as www.bet365.com
The staking plan is an interesting one. Can it be applied to any strategy with minimum odds of 3.00 decimal? Let me know your thoughts regarding this system and any ideas it may spark.
Resources
www.soccerstats.com does provide a break down of goals scored by 15 minute blocks. This will help you to short-list matches where at least one goal is expected.
Here’s how these stats look for the Liverpool v Southampton match.
Liverpool score 8 goals after the 60th minute at home. Southampton have conceded 7 goals away in the first half. This match does not look like a 0-0 full-time match so would be a good candidate as long as we get the odds of 3.00 that the system creator specifies.
Let me know how you get on with this idea. I will be looking, too, at employing this staking plan in other markets. I’ll let you know how I get on.