10th November 2012 Football Betting Research

LEAGUE POSITION – 18th ( bottom ) v 5th

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Augsburg

RECENT HOME FORM – LDLWL – sole win against 7th, 3-1 v Werder Bremen. Have only played one side in top 5, losing 1-3.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDLLDWDLL – only 1 win all season and 3 draws have been 0-0 against fellow bottom 6 sides.

GOAL TRENDS- 40% overs at home. Have failed to score in last 3 matches and in 7 matches all season. a strong unders trend but remember that solitary 1-3 defeat against a top 5 side at home.

STREAKS – 3 at home without a draw

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Dortmund

RECENT AWAY FORM – DLDDW – have yet to play the bottom 4 home or away. Dortmund have scored and conceded in all bar one away.  Conceding makes it harder to get a convincing win.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – WDWLDWDLWD  – defeats against 2nd at home and 9th away from home

GOAL TRENDS – 40% overs away from home. Dortmund have only failed to score in one, last match 0-0 at home v Stuttgart.

2 consecutive clean sheets for Dortmund a sign of tightness at the back ? Dortmund have conceded most away goals in the 2nd half.

STREAKS – 3 away without defeat. Have scored in the last 5 aways.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – 0-0 enters calculations as the only scoreline where Augsburg draw and the only scoreline which ket Dortmund from scoring last match. The last head to head was 0-0

Dortmund may have turned a corner with 2 consecutive clean sheets. They have had a tendency to concede away as well as score. 40% unders a surprise but remember in their sole home match against a top 5 side, Augsburg conceded 3 goals.

I cannot see Dortmund losing this match, although we may have to be patient. A 0-0 insurance bet pre match might be a starter.

Both teams have scored and conceded in last 3 matches. Bayern have won 5 of last 6 head to heads.

LEAGUE POSITION  – 1st v 3rd – could this be tighter than the odds suggest?

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Bayern

RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWL – loss v Leverkusen courtesy of an 87th minute goal. That was against 4th in the league.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWWWWWWWLW – no draw of course

GOAL TRENDS – bayern have scored in all matches this season.  They have kept clean sheets in 6 of the last 7 matches. Bayern are most lethal just before and after halftime. They have only conceded 4 goals at home ( and 2 were scored by one team). 80% overs at home

STREAKS – no draw in 10 , have scored in all 10.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Frankfurt

RECENT AWAY FORM – WWLL – losses against 10th and 11th. They are yet to play top 9 away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWWDWLWLD – altnerate draws and losses of late.

GOAL TRENDS – Frankfurt have scored and conceded in all bar 2 this season. Frankfurt have failed to score in only 1 this season.  And a clean sheet in only 1. 75% overs away. Have not conceded in the 30th -60th minute of matches away ( and remember when Bayern are strongest!)

STREAKS – 4 away without a draw.Have conceded in last 8 overall.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – over 80% and 75% over 2.5 goals for both sides is a starting point. Frank have not played top 9 away yet but lost against 10th and 11th. They have been very capable at home against top 10.  I expect goals here from both sides. I hope Frankfurt score first.

Threatening over 2.5 goals throughout. Since 2010, Schalke

LEAGUE POSITION – 2nd v 7th- Schalke in great early form.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Schalke

RECENT HOME FORM – WLWWW – sole loss against Bayern .Have scored 3 on 3 occasions when winning.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DWWLWDWWWL – unlucky 90th minute loss last time out away to 13th.

GOAL TRENDS – failed to score only against Bayern.  7 overs out of 10 matches. 2 of the matches were 2-0 so knocking on the overs door throughout. 60% overs at home. Average 2 goals per match this season.  Have yet to conceded first half at home.

STREAKS – 3 match home winning streak. 5 at home without a draw. Have scored in last 6

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Werder Bremen

RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWLD – sole win away v 12th. 2-1 and 3-2 losses v 6th and 7th does not augur well against 2nd.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – LWLDWLLWDW – inconsistent. Unbeaten in 3, 2at home.

GOAL TRENDS – 80% overs away is typical Werder. Have conceded 5 away in first 15 mins.

STREAKS- Have scored and conceded in last 5 away. Opponents have scored first in all away matches so far.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – odds are about right but if you want a safer bet, the form points to goals and an ability for Werder to score and concede in away matches.  Opponents have scored first in all away matches – will this continue? If so, Schalke to score first . Schalke have not conceded first half at home, so it looks primed for Schalke to be winning at half time IF they score first.

Both sides have scored in the last 4. In the last 2 at Arsenal, the matches have been tight 2-1 and 1-1.

LEAGUE POSITION – 7th v 8th and identical points – add that to the head to heads?

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Arsenal.

RECENT HOME FORM – DWLW – loss against Chelsea – A 1-0 win against QPR was an 84th minute goal, unconvincing. Arsenal are yet to play 3rd to 14th at home so hard to gauge how they have fared against teams near Fulham.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDWWDLWLWL – 2 defeats have come against Chelsea and Manchester United and one anomolous against Norwich.

GOAL TRENDS – 50% overs at home. Arsenal have only conceded 3 at home ( 2 against Chelsea), and are strongest in the 1/4 hour before half time.  75% of Arsenal’s goals concede d in first half.

STREAKS – no draw in 5 on a LW sequence at present.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Fulham

RECENT AWAY FORM – LLWDD – losses away against Man Utd and West Ham ( london derby) Have scored and conceded in 4 of last 5 aways.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – WLLWWLDWDD – losses against Man City, Man Utd and West Ham. Bar the latter, it seems Fulham are only vulnerable against the top top sides.  In 3 matches against current top 4, 2 defeats and 1 draw, all overs and both teams scoring.

GOAL TRENDS – Fulham have failed to score in only 1 this season. Fulham clean sheets only at home. Over 2.5 goals in all bar 1 match all season.  In 5 of last 6, both sides have scored and conceded. Fulham are strong finishers away – 7 scored in last half hour. But they have conceded 8 and scored 2 in the first half.

STREAKS – have scored in last 7 . No defeat in 3 away

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – this is going to be a tough match for Arsenal. Fulham have only lost really against the 2 Manchesters. Arsenal are way off their pace. Gervinho the top scorer for the Arse at home but he has not scored in last 4. This is a london derby too.  Fulham’s famous away form is not showing itself in their last 3. They should score  in this match.  Overs looks obvious with Fulham scoring and conceding. Arsenal got 2 mid week  so is their recent blunt attack getting back in shape? 1.57 -I wouldn’t back the current Arse with stolen money! I expect a Fulham goal at some stage. A score draw could be a real goer here at good odds 1-1, 2-2 , although a neutral goals bet should oblige.

Everton have not lost to Sunderland. 2 wins now without conceding in 2012 , albeit one in the Cup.

LEAGUE POSITION – 4th v 16th

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Everton

RECENT HOME FORM – WDWD – the draws were 2-2’s against Newcastle ( 90th min Newc equaliser) and Wigan ( 87th minute Baines penalty). Wins against United and Saints.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – WWLDWWDDDD – 4 consecutive score draws , 3 of them 2-2  Sidwell’s 90th minute nearly ended the draw sequence. Everton have scored 2-3-3-2-1-2-2 recently.

GOAL TRENDS – 75% overs at home. Have scored in all home matches. 6 of Everton’s 8 goals scored in the first half.

STREAKS – 4 at home without defeat. No defeat in 7. Have scored in last 7 at home and conceded in last 5 . 4 consecutive score draws.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Sunderland

RECENT AWAY FORM – DDDLD  – oh boy those draws are appearing again. 0-0’s and 1-1’s for Sunderland. A 3-0 loss v City ( 3rd) and playing 4th today.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – DDDDWLDDL – only 2 defeats this season against City and a 0-1 v Villa. It’s the draws which are leaking points for Sunderland.

GOAL TRENDS – only 2 overs all season.  Have failed to score in 3 of last 4. Sunderland have not scored in the 2nd half away from home this season.

STREAKS – 5 away without a win.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Draws pervade these 2 sides, and opposing this sequence should pay off today if we consider that it was only a 90th minute fulham goal which produced a draw v Everton last time out.  Amazingly, 6 of Everton’s 8 home goals scored in first half, and Sunderland yet to score in 2nd half away. Amazing stats.

Goals trends are incongruous. Only 2 overs all season for Sunderland plays an Everton with 75% overs at home.

The score draw sequence for Everton is now 4 strong and I would lay the draw if a draw late on in the hope this unwelcome sequence ends.

Only 2 head to heads recently see Motherwell win.

LEAGUE POSITION  -6th v 12th. It’s tight at the top of the league – a win could take Motherwell 3rd based on other results.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Motherwell

RECENT HOME FORM – DDWLLL – this is rubbish form for a 1.53 shot at home. Motherwell have not scored in their last 3 at home.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDWDWWDLLLWL – some terrible form. Dundee must be pants if Motherwell are 1.53 with that recent form.

GOAL TRENDS – Motherwell have not scored in 4 of the last 5. 33% overs at home -unable to score recently. Motherwell have scored 3 in first 15 mins but none thereafter at home in the first half.  Higdon a key goalscorer -4 at home, 3 away. Only one clean sheet in opening match all season.

STREAKS – 3 match home losing streak. no draw in 5 overall. Have conceded in last 11 matches

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Dundee

RECENT AWAY FORM – DLWLLL – sole win a 3rd minute penalty against Hearts. Have failed to score in all other away matches.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – DLLLWLLLLLLW – 2 wins have been 1-0’s against Hearts!

GOAL TRENDS – 33% overs away from home suggest Dundee do not get spanked away from home when not scoring. Have scored 5 goals only all season, all in first 1/2 hour . If Motherwell survive the first half hour, you would back them to win based on this form.

STREAKS – 11 without a draw. 3 match losing streak away.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – these are 2 teams in poor form. Both having trouble scoring but Dundee have only 5 all season, all in the first half hour and nothing after that.  Motherwell have conceded in the last 11 but are playing a team who have scored 1 goal away all season.  A messy match and Motherwell likely to score if there is to be a goal. 0-0 back to lay might be worth chancing with these 2 not finding the onion bag.

Head to heads not really relevant in light of the fact these 2 are now Premiership teams.

LEAGUE POSITION – 18th v 14th – both teams struggling and you feel this is already a 6 pointer.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Reading

RECENT HOME FORM – DLDD – a case of Sunderland/Evertonitis here .  All draws score draws so vulnerable in defence.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DLLLDDLDD – the pressure cranking up to end this winless sequence. It will end, and you can profit if you can discern likely matches for it to end, such as at home, against 14th in the league? All draws score draws. 1-1 v Stoke at home and 1-0 away loss to 12th placed Liverpool potential pointers to today.

GOAL TRENDS – 75% overs at home, largely down to concessions. Have scored and conceded in all home matches. No clean sheets all season. Have not scored or conceded in first 1/4 hour all season. Have conceded a whopping 13 in last 1/2 hour of matches this season. Have only scored 1 goal at home in first half all season.  Only failed to score in 2 away 1-0 defeats.

STREAKS – no win in 9. Have conceded in last 9 overall.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – naaaaaarwich let’s be having you.

RECENT AWAY FORM – LDLLD – another side unable to win , this time away.  Norwich have only played one of the bottom 10, drawing 1-1 away against Villa.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDDDLLLWDW – unlike Reading, Norwich have the wins under their belt, and are unbeaten in 3 against Arsenal , Villa and Stoke ( 2 home wins and an away draw). Norwich have an unbeaten record against bottom 6, 1-0 and 1-1 at home, 1-1 away.

GOAL TRENDS – 40% overs away from home. No clean sheets away from home.

STREAKS – no win in 5 away. Have conceded in last 5 away. Have scored in last 5 matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – what stands out is Reading’s winless sequence. This will end, and you think it will end at home, and against other teams in poor form. Norwich however are unbeaten in 3 now and have 2 1-0 home wins under their belt. These 2 sides concede which brings the 1-1 into play given this is such an important 6 pointer so early on. Lay the draw if you dare, hoping Reading’s 4 draws in their last 5 sequence ends, and their winless sequence ends.

LEAGUE POSITION – 20th v 11th

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Southampton

RECENT HOME FORM – LLWDL – win against Villa who were rather caught with their pants down. Saints have conceded 2 in all bar that win.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLLWLDLLL –  all bar 2 matches have been against top 10 sides.  A glimmer of hope?

GOAL TRENDS – 80% overs all season. Have conceded in all matches this season. Average 2.80 conceded. Just before the half time and full time whistles, Saints have conceded 9 and 7.

STREAKS – Have scored in last 4 and conceded in last 5 at home. Have conceded in last 10 matches. A slight concern in last 3 that Saints have only scored 1-1-0 when previously you’d previously have banked on them getting 2 ( and still not winning!)

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team- Swansea

RECENT AWAY FORM – WLLL – such a promising start to the season and found out by Villa, Stoke and Man City without scoring.  No draw away.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWDLLLDWDL – only 1 win in last 8 now for Swansea. Only win was 0-5 away to 2nd bottom. A chance for redemption against bottom?

GOAL TRENDS – 25% overs away from home, scoring and conceding 1.25 on average away.  Have conceded in all of last 8. Have only failed to score in 1 of last 4, against City.

STREAKS – 3 match losing streak away. Have conceded in last 3 away and last 8 overall and not scored in last 3.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – Swansea’s win against 2nd bottom could open things up for them today. Swansea have not scored in last 3 away matches and have a great chance to score against a Saints side who have conceded an average of 2.80 goals this season.  Both teams should score and Swans should end their goalless away sequence , setting this up for the traditional Saints goal fest a la Blackpool of season’s past.  Saints have to stop conceding 2 goals at home, and that will open things up for the win. They could keep Swansea to less than 2 goals.

LEAGUE POSITION – 15th v 19th  – both sides under 10 points this season.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Stoke

RECENT HOME FORM – DDWD – unbeaten at home as you would expect from a Stoke side. Extremely hard to score against, just what Sparky wants to hear……………………………………….NOT! Only conceded 1 and that was City.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – DDDDLWDLDL – only one win this season was a 2-0 v Swansea.

GOAL TRENDS – Only 2 overs matches all season were away from home.  Have failed to score in 3 of last 5. 0% overs at home says it all about Stoke, defending and a toothless attack. Stoke have scored all of their 3 goals in the first half, conceded one at home and scored and conceded NONE in the 2nd half at home AT ALL ( albeit only 4 matches). This sequence will end as the season progresses.

STREAKS – 4 at home without defeat.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – QPR

RECENT AWAY FORM – DLLLL – they have played City, SPurs and Arsenal away so a tough start.

RECENT OVERALL FORM – LDLDLLLDLD – no win this season. All 4 defeats away have come against top 7 sides  and all defeats this season against current top 11 sides. 2 1-1 draws this season against 14th and 18th.

Again, a winless sequence of this length really will end and end soon. I would favour it  ending at home against a struggling side.

GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs away from home. Why? Well QPR average 2 goals conceded per match. No clean sheets away.

STREAKS – no win in 10. Have conceded in last 6 overall  and last 5 away matches.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – QPR averaging 2 away conceded but Stoke adept at clean sheets but lacking firepower. They scored 2 against Swansea at home which might be replicated today.  Only 1 win between these 2 sides. Form strongly favours a traditional Stoke City home shut out, so perhaps base any correct score on this to nil bias.  Stoke have failed to score in 3 of last 5. Expect a rear guard action too from QPR who will be seeking their first win. If QPR win, I would suggest it could be a 0-1.

I usually play 3 correct scores given the odds, and using Fairbot can vary profit on each. 1-0, 0-1, 2-0 perhaps goers today?

LEAGUE POSITION – 13th v 5th – an unexpectedly good start for the Baggies Boing Boing!

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Wigan

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – West brom

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

LEAGUE POSITION – 8th v 13th

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Lille

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Brest

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

LEAGUE POSITION – 10th v 15th. Akhisar newcomers but Trab not quite matching the heights of last season just yet.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Trabzonspor

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Akhisar

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

Villa have scored only once in their last 3 matches.

LEAGUE POSITION – 17th v 1st – contrasting fortunes this season.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Aston Villa – N’zogbia out for Villa as well as defensive man mountain Dunne.

RECENT HOME FORM –  LWDD – loss was 1-3 against 3rd in the league.

RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLDWLDLLDW – inconsistent and only 2 wins against Swansea and Sunderland., both keeping clean sheets. If they keep United out , it’ll be a miracle.

GOAL TRENDS – 25% overs at home but 3 matches featured 2 goals each. Have scored in all home matches thus far . Have only scored 2 in the first half at home and 3 in the last 1/2 hour in the 2nd half.

STREAKS – 2 match home drawing streak.No defeat in 3 at home. Have scored in 4 at home.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Man Utd

RECENT AWAY FORM – LWWWW – 1-0 loss v Everton then stepping on the gas with 3-2-3-3 scored

RECENT OVERALL FORM – LWWWWLWWWW – no draw this season  – the loss v Spurs was courtesy of timing – internation break and then Champions League match.  United have scored 2 minimum in all wins and have scored 2 minimum in last 9 matches.

GOAL TRENDS – 80% overs away and 90% all season. Averaging 2.6 goals per game and we have already seen an ability to fight back not just in Europe, but in the League. Have only failed to score in first match of season. Have conceded only once in first half hour hour and not conceded in last 1/2 hour away. 5 sides this season have scored 2 against United but Villa surely don’t have the current attacking capabilities to keep that going.

STREAKS – no draw in 10 overall. Have scored in last 9  and conceded in last 3.

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – look for United to score 2 + again and there is a possibility here that this could be a 3rd consecutive head to head without Villa scoring. Villa should not score 2 goals, but may take a consolation. Van Parsnips has scored in last 3 and might be value for the goal.

Look for a rear guard action from Villa but eventual capitulation.

LEAGUE POSITION – 6th v 19th of 20 – tight head of the league so 3 points for St Etienne really would be valuable.

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – St Etienne

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Troyes

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS

LEAGUE POSITION – 14th v 1st

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Pescara

RECENT HOME FORM – LLWLDW – wins against Parma and Palermo in 8th and 19th without conceding. I doubt they can keep Juve out. They have lost 0-3 against 2nd and 5th !

RECENT FORM OVERALL – LLLDWWLLDL – have failed to score in 4 of the last 5 matches. Have failed to score in 3 of last 4 against top 10 at home. Clean sheets in 2 of last 3 at home

GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs unders at home. 0.73 scored average is poor. Anything under 1 and a team will be in trouble. Have failed to score in first half hour overall this season.  Have failed to score in the first half this season at home.

STREAKS – no goal conceded in 2 at home.

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Juventus

RECENT AWAY FORM – WWDWW – draw was a 0-0 v 4th. have conceded 1 away v 11th, 17th and 20th ( all 3 wins mind you).

RECENT OVERALL FORM – WWWWDWWWWWL – 1-3 loss v Inter Milan saw Juve score first before a late capitulation. Juve have only failed to win against top 4 sides.

GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs away from home. no defeat in 5 away. No draw in 6 overall  Have scored in last 6 overall.

STREAKS – see above

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – quite simply, if Pescara keep a clean sheet, they will get something here ( obviously  a 0-0). Juve’s only dropped points away were courtesy of a 0-0, but they have only fallen foul of top 4 sides.  2 consecutive clean sheets now for Pescara at home but they have failed to score in 4 of last 5 matches, and failed to score in the first half this season at home. 0-0 an insurance bet perhaps here and a hope that Juve will score first.

LEAGUE POSITION – 5th v 17th

HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Malaga

RECENT HOME FORM

RECENT FORM OVERALL

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Sociedad

RECENT AWAY FORM

RECENT OVERALL FORM

GOAL TRENDS

STREAKS

CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS