The curse of the Unprepared. PSG 0-0 with Ajaccio. Same fate as comeback kids Juve and Fiorentina. I did warn about possible under performance, but still expected 3/4 goals. The red card did not help, and it’s the red cards that no one can really predict.
Limited service today as my relatives are coming over to say goodbye, then tomorrow I travel. Time restrictions mean that I will not be doing the betting research template which gives a clearer holistic look at the matches, in favour of noting just what catches my eye.
1245pm – QPR v Tottenham – 1.8 away
Clearly for me Spurs are by far the better side here, but we have all sorts of angles, based largely around Arry. New manager syndrome for QPR and a nice win last time out v a changed Chelsea with, lets face it, a shit centre forward.
It will be difficult to evaluate QPR as Sparky and Arry are 2 completely different managers. Only 1 clean sheet for QPR at home was a 0-0 v Chelsea, but stopping a marauding QPR is a different matter entirely.
QPR have scored 2 goals only once at home this season, resulting in a 2-1 win against Fulham. They have conceded 9 in the first 1/2 hour of home matches.
Only 3 QPR clean sheets all season and it will be hard to envision Spurs being kept quiet. No real transfers in for QPR
Only 1 defeat in 9 for Spurs care of 2 Everton 90th minute goals. 7 different scorers of their last 9 goals sees Spurs spreading it around. Spurs are good defensively, the everton aberration was the only time recently that they had conceded 2 goals.
Spurs have failed to score in only 2 this season. 8 wins and 2 defeats home and away against bottom 8, defeats against Wigan and Newcastle. No draws. 100% overs away from home and have scored in all matches away from home.
11 scored away directly after haftime. Defoe and Bale the key goalscorers for Spurs away and Taarabt the only real source at home for QPR.
1.8 odds away usually expresses the feeling that this will be tight, both teams could score, it could be a 1-1 or a 1-2 kind of scoreline. Spurs are strongly favoured on the form. They have to be given their recent record. QPR will need a 1-0 or score 2 goals to get anything here re the 3 points. Spurs are strong defensively, not letting in more than 2 recently, and they have their scoring boots on, with goals from throughout the squad. I see the 0-1 win at Chelsea as an aberration – a Chelsea with team changes and a rubbish forward. Spurs will be less of a pushover.
Angles in? Difficult as we have the new manager syndrome. Spurs should not concede more than 1 goal so perhaps fashion a correct score around that and the feeling 1.8 for an away side signifying tight match, both teams possibly scoring and favouratism to away side .
245pm – Iraq v Yemen – 1.32 home – my research re Yemen should be fresh in your mind and they didn’t disappoint by rather predictably losing to the Saudis. Iraq have beaten Kuwait and the Saudis without conceding so far in this Gulf cup and should be able to do the same against a poor Yemen who tend to concede 2+ goals Yemen have lost 2-0 to the Kuwaitis and Saudis this competition so therein we have some cracking collateral form, Gromit.
Base any involvement therefore, if the form holds up, on a clean sheet for Iraq and a possible 2-0, 3-0 or higher scoreline. The collateral form indicates iraq may be the strongest team Yemen have met so far. If you want the yemen form, well just look at my posting on 9th january.
3pm – Aston Villa v Southampton – 2.48 home – not a match that grabs me by the lapels .16th v 17th, Saints have a game in hand and are a point behind Villa.
Villa have failed to score in 4 of their last 5 home matches, their solitary goal was an 80th minute 1-0 against Reading. The natives must be getting restless with Lambert who is doing a hatchet job on their chances of staying up. The last 4 matches have punctuated what a sorry defence they have – 8-4-3-2 conceded and the sickener is that Swansea equalised in the 90th minute latest.
At home to 6th-12th inclusive, Villa are unbeaten, but then become a tad unpredictable outside of these league positions. e.g. recent 0-3 loss to wigan in 18th and a 1-0 win v Reading in 19th.
11 conceded in the 2nd half at home, and overall it’s 30 conceded in the 2nd half. Darren Bent is the 3rd highest scorer and he has not even played recently. That sums up Villa for me!!
Last 5 matches have all been over 2.5 goals and today they play a side with a reputation for goals.
Solid form for Saints in last 10, only losing twice, 1-0 to Liverpool and Sunderland. 3 consecutive draws though means they are leaking points. All draws this season have been score draws. The most recent 1-1 v Arsenal was impressive defensively. The recent solid run has been underpinned by defence and resulted in only 2 overs matches in last 10.
Only 2 clean sheet all season for Saints is their problem. Saints have not played 14th -19th inclusive away from home so tough to gauge how they generally show away against bottom sides. All defeats away v top 11.
No clean sheets away, and like Villa are really vulnerable 2nd half to conceding, in fact the problems begin around the 30th minute mark and they have conceded with regularity thereafter.
Tough match to call. Villa are having trouble scoring at home recently. Saints have trouble keeping teams from scoring away. Saints defensively are rock solid at the moment, the odd lapse notwithstanding and it must be advantage Saints for me this afternoon, with defenses to the fore. Villa may have trouble breaking Saints rearguard today although Saints almost inevitably concede away.
A toughie to call . Villa were so near to a win last match against Swansea but at home just can’t find the onion bag. If Villa win, you suspect it will be 1-0 as Saints haven’t tended to concede more than 1 in recent matches home and away.
3pm – Everton v Swansea – 1.62 home. New manager for Swans means previous head to heads a tad suspect. Will Swansea’ recent exertions away to CHelsea help Everton today? I would not have priced the Toffees up quite so short against a Swans outfit who are more than holding their own. No new transfers of interest from either side.
Everton have only been beaten by Chelsea at home this season but 4 score draws and only 1 clean sheet at home tell you they concede at home all too regularly. The sole match they did not concede in was a 1-0 at home to Man Utd
That loss to Chelsea came in the last match at home.
Only 3 Everton defeats all season, 2 of which were away from home. Only 2 clean sheets all season though and have failed to score in just 1 which brings us to the standout stat of the Premiership.
Everton have scored in the last 18 and conceded in the last 16. Ergo 1-1 is the minimal scoreline expected when Everton play.
This even continued into the Cup against Cheltenham, and this outstanding stat will end eventually.
naturally Everton have scored in all home matches, in fact they’ve scored in 10 and conceded in 9.
Fellaini and Jelavic are the 2 goalscorers at home for Everton.
Overs is an obvious goer if Everton keep scoring and conceding.
Swansea – what impact will the midweek Chelsea match have today? They had to play their first team because it was a semi final.
Michu is obviously the main man. 8 at home and 5 away -if Everton keep him quiet, then they have the threat nullified.
All defeats for the Swans away came without scoring – 1-0’s against City and Spurs and 2-0 v Stoke and Villa. So, using my Miss Marple powers of deduction, if Everton are conceding in their matches, and Swansea’s only away losses have come when they failed to score away, it follows then that Swansea will not lose today as they are expected to score? – I’ll get me coat!
Swansea have had to score 2 goals to secure away wins this season.
Only 3 defeats in 15 for Swansea, 2 of which were 1-0, sees them in strong form
A strong unders bias for Swans away.
So your bets/trades will be determined by answers to the following questions
- will everton continue to score and concede? If yes then over 2.5 goals is quite obvious.
- If Swansea lose without scoring away, and are expected to score agaisnt Everton today, then it follows Swansea will not lose today!
- these 2 have only lost 2 matches each since 3rd November so will defences out?
- what impact will the midweek match against Chelsea have on Swansea?
With Everton’s record, that 1.62 looks vulnerable. At least lay them if they score first, in the hope the concession pattern continues!
3pm – Stoke v Chelsea – 2.02 away – the Norwich v Newcastle and Reading v WEst Brom are on the backburner. They look tricky puzzles. This match is a little more predictable. 0-0 for a long period and either a 1-0 Stoke smash and grab or a 0-1 Chelsea smash and grab. The introduction of Benitez could make this doubly so?
But we have the small matter of the SheepMan – Demba Ba. He’s a force to be reckoned with. In fact my Gran is a force to be reckoned with when compared to LadyBoy Torres.
Petr cech out for Chelsea. An air of vulnerability at the back?
Head to heads? 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0. The 1-1 occured at Stoke as did the 0-0.
Stoke have lost only 4 this season, all away from home, including a 1-0 v Chelsea. Most recently lost 3-0 to City and have quite uncharacteristicially scored 3 goals in 2 of their last 3 matches. What the friar tuck is going on in the world when Stoke City score 3 goals in 2 consecutive matches?
1-1, 1-1, 0-0 at home against top 6 this season. Unbeaten at home. 30% overs at home. In the 2nd half at home this season, Stoke have conceded only 1 goal. This suggests if they reach halftime unscathed, they may be in line for the win?
The Benitez factor seems to have shown itself in the defences of late. 1-0-0-1-1 conceded last 5 matches, albeit it did result in a 0-1 against QPR.
mata is the man for away goals.
after 2 away defeats, Chelsea won their next 3 aways against Sunderland , Norwich and Everton, the Everton thanks to Fat Frank.
Chelsea have played 7 aways against top 13 and scored and conceded in 6 of those.
It looks for all the world like being another tussle in line with last 4 head to heads 0-0, 1-0 either way or 1-1, most likely the 1-1 judging by recent performances from Stoke against top 5.
The concern is whether Demba Ba replaces Torres as the goal threat will be heightened. Therein lies the scupperer of an obvious unders bet and 1-0, 0-1 and 1-1 . Indeed 1-1 is the shortest priced correct score and interestingly Any unquoted is quite short for these 2 at 12 – given Stoke’s recent matches with the number 3 in them, a tickle of any unquoted would not go amiss ( and is contrary to all I have said previously , but hey those who took the ultra speculative route in laying PSG yesterday would have been handsomely rewarded).
3pm – Rangers v Berwick – 1.13 home – only mentioned as Rangers drew 1-1 last match – an 87th minute own goal!! 1.13 as you know ( red cards a la PSG not withstanding), should ensure goals and a speculative over 4.5 goals trade punt. 5 clean sheets and an own goal in last 6 might leave us over reliant on Rangers for goals . They have tended of late not to score more than 3. although earlier in the campaign managed 5 goals ( which is what you’d expect of a 1.13 quote).
7 defeats, 1 draw and 2 wins for Berwick in last 10 aways. 4-1-9-3-4 total goals in recent matches.
I’ll try to do more matches but cannot promise anything given the plans for the day. I’m going to start doing a “best of the day” at the end of the message, but I do not like being a tipster. This research is simply FORM BASED research and is used to get angles in.
BEST OF THE DAY SO FAR
245pm – Iraq v Yemen – 1.32 home – it must be this match, although I hope it will be liquid and not be forgotten with a full English program today. yemen are immediately opposable. Iraq have beaten Yemen’s conquerors 2-0 on each occasion, and therein lies the first angle in I would argue.
I would look this evening at Inter v Pescara too, and from the Premiership would suggest faith in 1-0, 0-1, 1-1 Stoke v Chelsea.
Standout stat of the day must be Everton’s scoring in last 18 and conceding in last 16, and scoring in last 10 at home and conceding in last 9 at home. These outstanding sequences will end at some stage, but today?