Apologies for no research over the weekend. I have a new rule in place. If a girlfriend has a birthday over the weekend when there’s a lot of interesting football, I have permission to ignore said birthday and continue with the Footy!
A few struggles from the big boys this weekend, seen in the context of a Premiership Match before a Champions League match.
Arsenal are in trouble if that waste of money Giroud keeps missing the net. Not an adequate replacement for RVP at all. Liverpool have a team full of potential, such as Sterling and Shelvey but these 2 have not, as yet, tightened up on their finishing. Liverpool thus continue to struggle when meeting the bigger teams.
I suppose the joys of trading were highlighted in the Dundee United v celtic match. Firstly, 0-0 at halftime – what do you do? Lay the 0-0 at good odds.
If you fancied Celtic, back them late, but trade out. Celtic scored first, they scored 2nd but the home team scored twice in the 89th and 90th minutes to get the draw! Trading of course means you couldn’t have cared less!
Barca and Real Madrid scored 3 and 4 as sub 1.15 teams are wont to do. Note Messi did not score for Barca – expect a goal from the little genius very soon in Barca colours.
It’s a quiet day today but here’s a few matches that I am interested in.
6pm – Bursaspor v Kasimpasa – 1.83 home – Burs dominant in league head to heads and have won the last 4 home head to heads between 2008 and 2010
8th v 10th on equal points so this could be tighter than the odds suggest.
Only 2 defeats for Burs this season, one at home and one away to galatasary. Unbeaten in last 6. LWDD so far at home. 2 consecutive 1-1 draws against 5th and 13th. 4 consecutive score draws ended with a 0-1 away win last match.
Burs have only failed to score in 1 match this season and kept a clean sheet in only 2 matches, both 0-1 wins.
25% overs at home and no clean sheets at home, albeit only 4 matches. No defeat in 6 and Burs have scored in last 7 matches.
Kasimpasa Have only had one win in the last 5 matches and only one draw, another Score draw. LWLL away -last 2 defeats were 1-0 defeats. Sole away win came against bottom side.
3 of 4 wins have come at home for Kasimpasa. They have only failed to score in those 2 away 1-0 defeats.
This is a tough match to get an angle into. I see a tight affair against 2 sides on equal points but with Burs losing fewer matches. Not a match for me to trade I’m afraid. there’s no point trading for the sake of it. And research is a tool to determine if there is an angle.
715pm – Kaiserslautern v Erzgebirge – 1.51 home – Kaiserslautern’s last 2 defeats since June 2012 have come against Bayern Munich. Kaiser are 4th in Bundesliga 2 and a win takes them 2nd tonight. Their opponents are 13th Head to heads are from too long ago to be relevant.
Kaiser are unbeaten this season, but 6 draws mean 12 dropped points. DDWDDW at home too. All bar one of these draws was a score draw. Erz are 13th. Kaiser have beaten 17th and 18th only at home. In only one match have both teams not scored in a Kaiser match this season.
Only 1 goal conceded by Kaiser in the first half at home suggests 1) they are more likely to score if a goal is to come in the first half and 2) they are more likely to concede in the 2nd half. This is backed up by the fact Erz only 1 goal in the first 75 minutes of away matches this season.
LLLLD for Erz away from home. The draw forms part of a good run of WDW last 3 matches. Against top 7 away, they have lost 3-0, 1-0, 2-0 against 3rd, 5th, 7th which suggests the possibility of a win to nil for Kaiser ( but for the fact Kaiser are scoring and conceding in all bar 1 this season).
Recent erz wins have come at home against bottom 7 sides. Erz score an average 0.4 away. They have conceded in all 5 away and in last 8 matches.
Erz tend to lose away without scoring against top 7 sides, but Kaiser tend to concede and score against all opponents. This makes my hope for a win to nil less clear cut – that would have been my way in. I would speculate on 2-0, 2-1, 3-1 as possible scorelines, albeit without any usual firm conviction.
Score draws for Kaiser against top 10 at home. Blessed relief today against 13th place who cannot score against top 7 away?
You know what to do if Erz score first! Will be a nice enhanced trade.
8pm – West Brom v Southampton – 1.72 home
HEAD TO HEADS
Last Head to Head was in 2008 so irrelevant.
LEAGUE POSITION – 9th v 20th – a win should take WBA into the to 5. A win takes Saints 3rd bottom.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team- West Brom
RECENT HOME FORM – WWWWL – sole loss was v Man City when West Brom took the lead and lost to 80th and 90th minute goals. Liverpool and Everton impressive defeats over.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – WDWLWDWLL – the WDWL sequence ended with a 2nd consecutive loss lately away at Newcastle with another 90th minute goal concession. Home wins already this season against 3rd bottom 1-0 and 2nd bottom 3-2 augurs well for the Saints visit this evening.
GOAL TRENDS – 60% overs at home. Have conceded 2 goals in last 2 home matches and this is a worry with such an attacking team as Saints. WBA have scored in all home matches and only failed to score in one match all season. Both teams have scored in the last 4 matches. West Brom have not conceded in the first half hour of matches this season but are very vulnerable in the last 1/4 hour of both halves. West Brom have only conceded 1 goal in the first 75 minutes of matches at home. trouble is the last 1/4 hour where we have noted 2 90th minute concessions in consecutive matches, one costly, the other not quite so. At home WBA have scored first in all 5 matches. This is a nice stat for traders.
We note their odds of 1.72. As I have discussed, when a team is away and around this price, we expect a 1-1, 1-2 kind of a scoreline. These odds this weekend could also be found for United at home to the Arse, where indeed it was 2-1 final score.
STREAKS – 5 at home without a draw. Have scored in the last 5 at home. Have scored in last 5 and conceded in last 4.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Saints
RECENT AWAY FORM – LLLL – both teams scoring, but recently it has been “consolation” goal only for Saints 3-6-3-4 conceded away to City, Arsenal, Everton and West Ham. WBA are the conquerors of Everton at home.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – LLLLWLDLL – sole win was at home to Aston Villa. Sole draw was at home to Fulham. Have played 7 matches home and away v top 8 and lost all bar that draw with Fulham. West Brom are 9th.
GOAL TRENDS – 100% overs away from home. Both teams scoring and conceding away . Both teams have scored and conceded in all bar 1 match this season. Have conceded 7 and 8 in the last 1/4 hour of each half, so, like WBA, are vulnerable at the end of matches. Only 3 goals scored and 10 conceded in the first hour of away matches. Highly likely that WBA will continue scoring first at home?
STREAKS – Have scored and conceded in last 7 matches. 4 match away losing streak.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – first thing to note is WBA’s ability to score first at home. They are vulnerable though , conceding 2 consecutive 90 minute goals. Saints matches tend to see both sides scoring so if Saints score first ( and they have done before), this is a good entry point to lay them or back WBA.
Overs looks very obvious here. West Brom have not conceded in the first 1/2 hour at home, and Saints have scored only 3 and conceded 10 in the first hour of away matches.
If a concerted 0-0, then lay said 0-0 as goals are expected . West Brom have a great incentive , and the capability for the win. They can get to top 5 with a home win. There is nothing in the current home form to change that. They have beaten 3rd and 2nd bottom 1-0 and 3-2 at home and are expected to out this evening.
830pm – Getafe v Betis – 2.08 home – in a quiet day I will check out these 2 teams . I don’t normally venture away from the big boys in La Liga.
HEAD TO HEADS
a suggestion this could go either way . Only 2 home head to heads of any relevance were in 2011 and one league encounter, a 1-0 Getafe win.
LEAGUE POSITION – 10th v 6th – Betis could go top 5 with a win today and are having a good start to the season.
HOME TEAM – -past fixtures, forthcoming fixtures and likely team – getafe
RECENT HOME FORM – WLWL – losses v barcelona and 0-1 against Levante who are 5th. One win against Real madrid too 2-1 at home again suggests getafe are tough to read.
RECENT FORM OVERALL – LWDLLWWLW – a solid recent run built on defence with 2 1-0 wins, a 0-1 loss and a 2-1 win – the 2 conceded goals in that run came in the 87th and 90th minutes.
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs at home. Getafe have not scored at home in the first half this season. As I said above, a strong defensive bent in last 4 matches could continue into tonight’s match.
STREAKS – 4 at home and 6 overall without a draw.
AWAY TEAM – past fixtures -forthcoming fixtures and likely team – Betis Sevilla
RECENT AWAY FORM – WWLD – sole loss v Malaga ( 4th place) was a 4-0 mauling.
RECENT OVERALL FORM – WLWWLLWDW – 5 clean sheets in last 7 – conceded heavily against Atl Madrid and Malaga ( 2nd and 4th).
GOAL TRENDS – 50/50 overs unders
STREAKS – no strong streaks.
CONCLUSION/NOTES/STANDOUT STATS – it seems these 2 are in solid defensive form. Getafe in their last 4 have only conceded 87th and 90th minute goals. Betis have 3 consecutive clean sheets and 5 in last 7 matches. Defenses should out this evening. The goals trends are 50/50 which makes life very difficult as regards opting for overs/unders. Betis have only been mauled by top 4 clubs and should find Getafe in 10th a little easier, although Getfafe have beaten Real Madrid at home.
value could be a 0-0 back to lay trade in the hope that the defenses are as dominant as they have been .
In a tough day’s football, I think the Premiership match is the most readable and I cannot see West Brom losing. I can see both teams scoring and hope for Saints to score first to make it interesting.