6th March 2013 Football Betting Research

Unders was a profitable pre match trade in the United game? How so It ended 1-2? Well, it was 0-0 at halftime. Remember when you trade that you only need the merest hint that what you expected will come about.

Turkish delight for Special Needs One as the ref sent off Nani. Elsewhere dortmund were full of goals at home again and overs was never in trouble.

Cardiff v Derby. Key stat. Derby had lost in all matches against top 6 away. i.e. can also be interpreted as did not win…. so tell me what do you do when Derby are leading in the 75th minute.YOU LAY THEM! The odds will be relatively low and Cardiff at home have 15 mins to get at least one goal, which they did.

I note Leicester drew again- this shows the unreliability of the lower leagues for me as compared to the major european leagues .

12pm – BSK Borca v Partizan Belgrade – 1.17 away – yesterday’s eastern european cup match shows that basing a choice on the odds is not always the way to go. BUT as you know 1.17 for an away side is a big hint for 3 goals +. Serbian Super league.  1st v 14th and a real chance to consolidate top position for Partizan with their game in hand and 5 points in hand. Borca are tenuously holding onto a place outside the bottom 2 and a point will help increase the gap.

Only 2 wins and 2 1-1 draws in last 13 for Borca includes 3 consecutive defeats to nil, and we know what 11.17 signals? -a potential win to nil.

They have conceded in 11 of their last 12.

Borca are definitely a bit more stubborn at home.

LWWWWLWDWL – One defeat was 2-3 . 3 of the wins were 1-0.

15 wins, 3 defeats and a draw for Partizan of late.They have scored in their last 18 matches.  score around 2 per match, maximum of 5 so that is the figure to work with if you think short odds translate into an easy win.Part are equally as strong away, WWWWWWDWWWWWWWLWWWWLD – in the last loss and draw, Part scored 2 and were 0-2 up last match.

No soccerstats for Serbia means minimal research, but it seems Part should score 2 -5 goals today.Do note the home teamhave a tidy record  at home.

2pm – USA (W) v Iceland (W) – 1.2 home. Germany, USA, Brazil are the real powerhouses in women’s football. Instinctually, then, the odds look about right. Is this a friendly or a competitive match? This is an Algarve Cup game for the ladies. 21 wins and 4 score draws for the USa in their last 25 matches. Go USA Super cool, gee they’re real cool at this soccer man getting lots of scores!In the Algarve cup since 2006, USA form reads DWWDWWWWWWWWWWWDWWWWWWWWWWLW

Iceland have only had 2 draws since 2008 which is quite a stat. They have scored and conceded in 4 of their last 5 and won their last 2 matches 3-2. Will they contribute to the goals today?

Woman’s football is about as reliable as a politician so tread warily, but USA look imperious and Iceland very averse to drawing! No draw in 22 in the Algarve cup for Iceland includes 3 defeats by 1,2 and 4 goals against USA. Iceland did score 2 last time and the way they are scoring, they could nab a consolation?

4pm – Levadiakos v PAOK – 2.14 away – those following the DRT chat at http://drtfootballtest.blogspot.com will have noted that Levadiakos got spanked 1-4 at home . Are they vulnerable to all comers at home? This is the greek cup so I will give this a miss.

5pm – Denmark (W) v Germany (W) – 1.23 away – German ladies usually the force in Women’s football and only the USA it seems can beat them.  Algarve Cup again. No home or away advantage. These 2 last met 2010 so H2H a bit out of date.

No wins in 4 for the Danes includes a 0-0 v Spain. and 2-2 with Brazil. They can mix it with the big boys, er girls!

A tendency to really avoid draws in the Algarve cup means either they win , or Germany win, and the odds tell you what the market thinks.A 5-0 loss to USA and 2-0 loss to Japan perhaps tell you what to expect.

4 consecutive draws for ZE GERMANS were against US and France, 2 strong ladies sides. All draws were score draws. You would expect a draw sequence to end at some time and against the right opponents, say a team who tend to avoid draws in the Algarve cup, like, erm the Danes?

Since August 2009 only the USa have beaten Germany and that was a humdinger 2-3.No draw in 20 in the Algarve cup for Ze Germans. 7 wins in last 8 and that 2-3 loss to the USa. Ze Germans used to be a bit inconsistent in this competition but have the winning thread of late.  15/16 of their wins have been to nil – quite something!

5pm – IFK Mariehamn v HJK Helsinki – 1.21 away – only the league cup and friendlies have kept these 2 busy before the start of the league season. This is another league cup match and I will dismiss this as they have not been fully wound up with competitive league action for some time.

745pm – Juventus v Celtic – 1.37 home – what is Juve’s motivation here? They have 3 away goals and a lack of complacency is their only hurdle at home. This will ensure an open game as Celtic simply must get the first goal, the 2nd goal and the 3rd goal!  A look at the first leg and Juve scored 2 of their 3 goals in the 77th minute onwards which might have suggested some defensive savvy from John Lennon and the Boys. Imagine if they can keep the Old Lady quiet and nick the first goal nice and early, we’d be set up for an interesting match. 

Celtic have scored in 8 of their last 9 Champions league away matches including Barcelona an dBenfica. which they lost 2-1. Juve have now kept 4 consecutive CL clean sheets including a 3-0 home win v Chelsea.

You feel this is a hurdle too far for the Bhoys. Italian complacency and Celtic scoring the first goal might keep the dream alive. BUT Celtic to score 3 against a side with none conceded in 4 is asking too much?

745pm – Paris St-G v Valencia – 1.93 home – someone in Paris forgot to look at the “BEST BEFORE” sticker on David Beckham. It’s a good 7 years out of date. The sheep, or is it LE sheep, will buy his shirts for £40 a pop. Those morons deserve to be relieved of their hard earned! But I digress,  can Britain’s brainiest footballer….EVER! help PSG secure a trip into the next round of the Champions League.

I think Ibra is out for PSG and he will be a big miss, although he did not score in the first leg. PSG took a 0-2 lead until the 90th minute and that might be a sign that they can qualify with comfort and home advantage tonight?

3 home wins in the CL for PSG .

Only 3 wins in 10 for Valencia now includes 2 2-2;s last 2 matches. 6 wins, a loss and a draw for Valencia away overall is quite healthy.Valencia have only recently lost to the likes of Chelsea, Bayern and PSG in the CL. They are generally poor away though have 2 wins last 2 v BATE and Lille.

Tough to call with the absence of Ibra this evening blunting PSG. 2 away goals though means they can lost 0-1, 1-2 and still go through. Valencia need 2 goals minimum.