What a nice way to start the weekend with a successful 1.18 lay in Japan, and then end the day with a perfect enhanced trade after Benfica went 0-1 down, eventually winning 2-1. Arsenal showed that West Ham have largely been performing well against mediocre teams, and yet again the bookies over priced Arsenal, and of course a nice big price was available as West Ham scored first.
Chelsea did what was expected with ease, and the Swans ended their goalless run. MAn City repeated recent goalscoring exploits in head to heads v Sunderland.
No major shocks at all meant that it was a very profitable day for yours truly.
I notice Prayag are playing Air India this morning. If my experience of Air India is anything to go by, Prayag will be playing in the correct venue, and Air India’s players will be kept on a coach for 1 1/2 hours, then land in Germany.
I have to be choosy with matches today, because it is the girlfriend’s day off and she wants to do some pointless nonsense probably involving shoes and handbags. So I’ll research as much as I can. Remember I use this research too, so would rather do as many matches as possible.
Ajax are unbeaten this season and have kept a clean sheet in 3 consecutive home wins, including a 1-0 against Twente latest.
Utrecht at home have the notable scalp of PSV in a 1-0 win, and away from home, it’s WDW so they are in reasonable form. I would add though that the form v teams like PSV, Twente, Ajax is wholly separate from what is achieved against the rest of the league who are a level below the big 3 .
Utrecht have played the current top 5, albeit at home, 1-2 loss, 1-0 win, 0-1 loss. Is this an indication that they struggle against the top 5 at home, so they will be expected to struggle against the top 5 away ( Ajax are top 4)?
Ajax are really quick starters on the goalscoring front, while Utrecht have not scored in the first halfhour of matches yet.
ANGLES IN? What concerns me here is that Utrecht have won at Ajax last 2 head to heads. Does this signal a potential bogey side for Ajax? Or do we take solace in the fact that Ajax won 0-3 at Utrecht in the very latest head to head, have 3 consecutive wins with clean sheets at home and have scored in all matches this season ( Utrecht too have scored in 6 of 7 matches this season). The Value of course is in siding with the “bogey team ” theory , but will it hold out for this season? Remember we are in a post transfer market where Ajax have sold Anita and Vertonghen and not really brought anyone major in.
1130am – Roma v Atalanta – 1.52 home
1245pm – Celtic v Hearts – 1.32 home – Celtic must be buoyed by an unlikely 2-3 away win against Spartak Moscow. Hangover today or consolidate that win. Hearts were arguably the 3rd best team in the SPL. With Rangers departure, they could have a real go at the title this season.
1-0, 0-4 wins for Celtic, 1-2 win for Hearts ( 90th minute goal), 5-0 Celtic home win as recently as May 2012.
WDW for Celtic at home so far this season. Celtic have scored in all matches this season and have 2 consecutive 2-0 scorelines now.
Hearts have only won 2 this season, and have now lost 3 of their last 4 matches.DDLW away from home. 0-3 v Dundee United the win.
Unders dominates both teams this season. Hearts have scored by far the greater number of their goals in the first half. They might score first and set up an enhanced bet.
ANGLES TO CONSIDER? – Mid week hangover for Celtic affect today’s game? Celtic have 2 4-0 and 5-0 wins in last 3 head to heads – they are capable if clicking. Hearts in poor form at present overall and away from home. Unders have dominated so far, albeit only a handful of matches.
1130am – PSV v Breda – 1.15 home – I showed you yesterday why it’s worth researching these 1.18 shots. Although Bayern and Benfica only scored 2, Urawa Reds were 0-2 down ( remember they had not won at home against bottom 4). PSV look trustworthy surely? What will the research say?
No draw this season for PSV yet, and only 2 defeats – away from home in 1 goal in in matches. 2-5-3-5-0-3 6 scored by PSV this season, and you know 1.15 signals 3/4 minimum. PSV have shown a consistent capability for scoring that amount this season. 5-0, 5-1, 3-0 wins at home back this up too.
DLLL for NAC away from home this season, includes a 5-0 loss to Ajax, and as you know Ajax, PSV and Twente are all similar in performance and scoreline .
PSV have won the last 3 head to heads at home, but lost 3-1 away at Breda last head to head. Can this be discounted by focussing on current season form?
16 goals scored by PSV in last 1/2 hour of matches. So expect fireworks if this is relatively tight going into the final halfhour.
PSV have conceded in each 1/4 hour segment of the 90 minutes this season, so could be vulnerable at any stage. Their recent goalscoring and 5-0 and 6-0 wins against bottom sides ( NEC are 3rd bottom currently) suggest the 1.15 odds could reasonably produce a replication and a win to nil.
130pm – Southampton v Fulham – 2.7 home – this season’s BLackpool, Saints have goals galore but a leaky defence and could score 1 or 2 today but be vulnerable to a Fulham side who ( pause, then step back in amazement) won a fecking away match for the first time since Florence Nightingale was the physio.
2pm – Siena v Juventus – 1.58 away – Juve seem ever reliable when expected to win. 2nd bottom v top on goal difference. Only 6 matches in this season. Siena have been poor at home, 0-0, 2-2 draw with Udinese when 0-2 down ( you suspect Juve could replicate the 0-2 and then keep the lead!), and 1-0 win v Bologna.
Siena have scored in their last 5 matches. Juve have 5 wins and a 0-0 away draw v fiorentina. 2-4-3-2-0-4 scored by Juve this season, and 4-3-0 scored away from home.
0-0 saver perhaps for Juve backers?
It seems that when they score, they win. Juve have not conceded more than one goal this season. If Siena win, then the suggestion is that it will a 1-0. Possibility that Juve will concede scuppers a better value correct score to nil. 1-3, 0-3, 1-4 for the highly speculative ( I would use bookmakers rather than Betfair which is inflexible for any correct scores over 3).
3pm – Liverpool v Stoke – 1.54 home – what to make of the 2-5 win last match for Liverpool. Suarez clicked into gear as a striker of his quality always threatened to do. This match could see Stoke’s ( PATENT PENDING) hold on for a 0-0 and hope to nick a set piece 0-1 away win. What do you think? Nearly so successful at Chelsea!
14th v 12th currently. Stoke have enjoyed Liverpool’s visits to the Potteries with 2-0, 1-0 wins and narrow 1-2 defeat. At Liverpool, in head to heads, 2-0, 0-0, 2-1 so Liverpool were unbeaten and kept 2 recent clean sheets. All of these scorelines are pretty tight as you’d expect with a Stoke side, but it seems to be the general story of faltering against the “alleged” top English sides.
Both teams suffered 5 match winless sequences which ended with wins last match. 2-5 for Liverpool away to Norwich and 2-0 home win for Stoke against Swansea.
As you’d expect with Stoke, all bar 1 match was under 2.5 goals. Liverpool are more likely to bias towards overs, with the only aberrations 1-1, 2-0 matches. Liverpool’s home form has to be put into context , Man City, Arsenal and Man United. You could say that their season proper at home starts now with a match they can win.
DD 1-0 loss for Stoke away from home. They were 5 minutes away from a 3rd away draw.
Stoke have scored 5 of their 6 goals this season in the first half, the suggestion being that if it is 0-0 at halftime, Liverpool would be the more likely goalscorers.
Stoke are likely to frustrate – it is their defence which stands out yet again. 0-0 back to lay a hope here as a trade?
1-0, 2-1, 2-0 possibles this afternoon with a bias towards the Liverpool home win. I cannot discount a draw but expect Liverpool to win.
3pm – Tottenham v Aston Villa – 1.5 home – a degree of confidence in the market that Villas Blow Arse has the squad to play his way, where as at Chelsea, he literally had pensioners. After an unlucky 2-1 loss to Newcastle on the first match of the day, Spurs responded with w 1-1 draws and 3 consecutive wins scoring 3-2-3 against Reading, QPR and Man Utd. The last win has to be put into the context of a shuffled United pre Champions League.
Spurs have scored and conceded in all matches this season. What realistic threat though do Villa provide?
Villa are unreadable at present. LLDWLD for them so far this season. Villa have scored in their last 5 matches though and may keep up the Spurs score and concede record.
Darren Bent has scored in his last 2 matches and may be catching a thread of form.
Spurs have scored 2 in 2 head to head wins at Spurs, and are certainly capable again, with Defoe scoring for his new manager.
Spurs have not conceded in the first half hour this season, and Villa have conceded only 1 in the first halfhour this season, so perhaps we can hope for a tight start?
Spurs have conceded 7 of their 8 goals after the break. If you think there’ll be a goal first half, it seems highly likely Spurs will be the scorers.
Spurs look to have the best attacking threat on paper. As I said earlier, this Villa side is a bit of a mishmash. Lots of transfer action for Spurs see them strengthen the side.
Villa’s biggest signing is Benteke from Genk.
You get the feeling that Lambert’s Villa are very much a work in progress. This results in inconsistency such as the 4-1 away defeat to Southampton, which suggests vulnerability against attacking sides.
Advantage Spurs surely? villa are unreadable making nailing a decent value bet very difficult.
330pm – Twente v AZ Alkmaar – 1.78 home – these 2 teams seem better matched that the 1.78 quote would suggest. When 1.78 is quoted for an away side, it signals the possibility of a 1-1, 1-2 – will that ring true for home 1.78 quotes? Twente sit top of the league with a game in hand. Their sole defeat was a 1-0 v Ajax. A feeling therefore that they should cope with teams outside of the other biggies such as Ajax and PSV.
Twente started the home run well with a 4-1 win, and their last 2 home wins have been 1-0 with both goals being penalties. Does this mask problems in attack at home? These wins were against VVV and Heerenveen. Are teams wise to twente at home?
This suggests a 0-0 back to lay trade to start the match in the hope Twente’s apparent goalscoring woes at home continue.
Away from home, twente managed 6 and 3, so why the sudden drought at home?
AZ perhaps give us a clue as to performance against these big teams. 2-2 away to Ajax, and 5-1 loss to PSV. They have not won yet, but have scored. Value seekers may want to pounce on this.
If Twente’s last 2 wins were 1-0’s and down to 2 penalties, and AZ have scored against Ajax and PSV, 0-1 to AZ would be the value call wouldn’t it?
1.78 certainly suggests trepidation from the bookies.
ANGLES IN? Well I would not be a Twente backer today, and that 0-1 back for AZ is a throwaway bet and offers us the chance of a trade if 0-0 for a concerted period or if AZ score first. Why the Twente goal drought at home? Any Twente fans enlighten me?
Do note that Twente’s 5 conceded goals have all come in the last 1/2 hour, so if they have trouble scoring, 0-0 could be a real goer to trade out at halftime?
Schteve, how you shay, McClaren is schtill at the helm, and needs to solve this nervy home form.
4pm – Newcastle v Man Utd – 1.95 away – Newcastle have been priced at over evens the last 3 occasions and they are yet to lose, but are high score drawing regularly. Simply, with Cisse and Ba in the side, Newcastle cannot be discounted.
United did what was necessary mid week. If we look at head to heads, then Newcastle can be reasonably confident of getting something out of this match. 1-2 United away win, 3-0 United home win, 0-0 Newcastle home draw, 1-1 draw at United, 3-0 Newcastle home win, 2-1 United home win. United have failed to score at St James Park in their last 2 visits, and if this continues, Benarfadaleyhe’salittledodgymaybe, Cisse and Ba can punish a ropey United defence.
Young, Smalling, Jones and Vidic are out for United. Rio Ferdinand looked poor in recent performances. 6 out of Newcastle’s 8 goals have been scored by Demba Ba. We saw yesterday with Sunderland that an over reliance on one person is dangerous. If I was Fergie, I would mark Ba out of the game and thus nullify the threat.
3 score draws in their last 4 matches saw Newcastle have to fight back from behind. This must be getting exhausting for them, and a pattern Alan Partridge will be keen to end. It suggests that the opposition can lead at some stage during the match.
So 3 score draws in last 4 for Newcastle as against no draws for United and defeats against everton and Spurs ( mitigating circumstances?)
With Newcastle’s penchant for score draws and United’s penchant for conceding this looks like it could involve goals from both sides.
Definitely a match to delay entry into, and to perhaps favour Man Utd to lead at some stage, and possibly to be brought back to level? I would be worried as a Newcastle backer against Demba Ba scoring 6 of 8 goals. Will UNited avoid another draw though?
430pm – Braga v Olhanense – 1.42 home
430pm – Hannover v Dortmund – 1.73 away
630pm – Olympiakos v Asteras Tripolis – 1.26 home – the main reasons I look at shorties is to see if they can form part of a mug punter multiple acca, and also to see if we can enhance the odds with a correct score punt.
1st v 4th so Asteras having a good start to the season, albeit after only 5 matches.
All wins so far for Oly and at home, they’ve scored 4. The odds would be below 1.2 if the market expected another 4 goal haul. I suppose they are factoring in Asteras as 4th placed currently.
Asteras only loss is against 2nd in the league 2-1 away from home. 0-0 and 0-1 win against 2 others. Asteras haven’t scored more than 1 away all season.
At home in H2H ( head to heads) oly have scored 3 and 7 . 0-1, 0-1, 2-0 in home matches for Asteras.
A recent 0-0 away match v Panathanaikos is perhaps the ideal that Asteras will be aiming for against the other Greek powerhouse.
factor in the 0-0 therefore. History and current home form points to a great potential for Oly goals. Asteras 0-0 v Panathanaikos and 2-1 loss to 2nd signal they could be competitive.
650pm – Barcelona v Real Madrid – 1.92 home – regular servings of over 2.5 goals when these 2 meet. And with a makeshift-ish Barca defence, we could see Real contributing more . 1st v 7th in the league and a must win for Real who are really lagging behind.
Both teams have scored in the last 9 head to heads. The last 8 head to heads all over 2.5 goals.DWDLW for Barca at home in head to heads. All very tight one goal in it matches and a feeling that the winner simply scores one more than their opponents
Real’s 2 defeats have been away.
A match where neutral goals seem to offer the greatest safety. Over 3.5 or even 4.5 goals can help from a trader’s perspective as opposed to a straight back bet. Ronny and Messi both to score seems rather obvious. 2nd v 15th in the league
745pm – Napoli v Udinese – 1.53 home – I tend to target teams over a season, and Napoli are one such team, as this early on they have a very attacking bent. Only 1 match where Napoli did not win this season v only 1 match won this season. LLDWDD for Udinese and 2 consecutive 0-0’s. That as the scoreline in Napoli’s only dropped points match.
At home, 2-1, 3-1, 3-0 for Napoli sees them in fine goalscoring form.On each occasion when they conceded at home, they were 2-0 up. Both teams have scored in 4 of their last 5 head to heads. Will this continue with Udinese currently collecting 0-0’s?
3 consecutive clean sheets for Napoli and 2 consecutive for Udinese could make this tight initially before the neapolitans break through with home advantage?
Napoli have currently scored 3 against 14th and 18th and Udin are currently 15th.
What will out today? 3 clean sheets for Nap and 2 for Udin? Does this mean defences dominate?
Or Napoli scoring 2-3-3 in their 3 home wins?
Or both teams scoring as per the general trend with head to heads. I would favour Napoli at home myself, given that I have watched them at home and they were mighty impressive going forward. The Udinese 0-0 pattern surely will end today.