Please remember that research in these matches is a lot more difficult than doing league matches. These are generally one offs, there’s little history between the sides, and international teams do change personnel more frequently than league teams.
7.45pm – Germany v Portugal – 2.04 home. Don’t mention the war, I mentioned it once but I think I got away with it… Germany return to Poland and the Ukraine.
A run of 14 games in all competitions with over 2.5 goals ended with the last match, a friendly v Israel, which ended 2-0. I don’t think I’ll read too much into that match, and go with the over 2.5 goals matches as far more indicative of Germany’s footballing characteristics. During this run, Germany scored 4-1-2-2-3-3-6-2-3-3-3-3-1-3-2 – they lost friendlies in Feb and May this year 1-2 v France, and 5-3 away to Swiss – wholly anomalous and perhaps indicative of team changes.
Unbeaten in their last 10 Euro qualification matches.Indeed, ze germans have won their last 9 qualifiers and have interestingly conceded in their last 5. And in Portugal surely we see a team with the best player in the world – the giant w*nker ( that’s winker I think), Ronaldo who is more than capable of getting a goal. In 3 of the last 4 euro qualifiers, goals were conceded in the 79th, 86th,and 89th minutes. Maybe the Germans take their foot off the gas at the end of matches?
In the Euros proper, there have been no draws in the 6 matches in 2008 with defeats v Croatia and Spain. The Germans beat Portugal 2-3 in that 2008 campaign.
Pretty poor form for Portugal in recent matches in all competitions.last 6 matches saw 3 0-0’s, a 2-1 defeat to Denmark, a 6-2 win over Bosnia (after drawing 0-0), and a 1-3 defeat to Turkey in a friendly latest.
It all suggests that if Nani and Ronaldo don’t score, then Portugal don’t score? Although it seems Postiga can chip in if required.
In qualifying, Portugal won 4, drew 1 and lost 1, but note the wins were against , ahem, Iceland, Cyprus and Bosnia, form which will have the rest of Europe, erm, quaking in their boots.
In the Euros tournaments of the past, laying the draw seems to have been a profitable trade (note emphasis!) A real tendency to score late first half goals /late 2nd half goals might suggest Portugal found life difficult . This is clearly punctuated when we see the teams they could not score against in 2004 and 2008 – Greece and Switzerland. 2 teams will very very big buses to park!
Could we infer that if Portugal meet a team with a defensive bent, they could struggle to score and thus be vulnerable to defeat?
My concern with Portugal is that they could burst into life with the likes of Ronaldo, Meireles, Nani, Postega, but there is a suspicion that they are over reliant on the extreme talents of the few, and if those few don’t click then it’s Goodnight Vienna!
GERMANY KEY STATS
- 14 consecutive over 2.5 goals matches ended with a 2-0 win v Israel.
- Germany have scored 3 goals in 5 of the last 7 matches – outstanding.
- Have won last 9 Euro qualifiers.
- Have conceded in last 5 euro qualifiers.
- In 3 of last 4 euro qualifiers, Germany conceded in the 70th+ minute – a case of “job done” perhaps , so beware if they are 2-0 up coming into the 70th minute in this match.
PORTUGAL KEY STATS
- Only 1 win in the last 6 matches.
- Wins in qualifying against Cyprus, Bosnia and Turkey,not that eye-catching form wise.
- Laying the draw as a trade ( not a bet) seems to have been very profitable in Portugal matches.
- .There has been a tendency ( although there have been early goals sometimes) for Portugal to score late first half/ 2nd half.
CONCLUSION
Logic points to over 2.5 goals given the German goal scoring record of late. There may be a chance that both teams could score here? Increase the odds by delaying entry for as long as you dare in the hope the Portuguese can shut out Germany first 10-15 mins?
I would most certainly lay Portugal if they score first. Portugal seem layable in their matches. Their recent wins in their qualifiers were against teams like Iceland, Cyprus and Bosnia and the 0-0’s were a worry.
Schweinsteiger has been a solid goalscorer for the Germans. Portugal, if scoring, could score post 40 minutes and more likely in the 2nd half. A watching brief for me on the Pork and Cheese just to see them in action really. Germany will be tough to beat. Create a value bet in running perhaps by looking for late goals to be scored (lay existing scoreline in the 70th minute if Germany 2-0 up?)
Last head to head 2008 3-2 to Germans
The Racing Post has gone for a DRAW/GERMANY result.