Greece in under 2.5 goals shocker!!! Yes, 1-1 and a good goalkeeper, kept the inevitable unders in tact for the Greeks who remain unbeaten.
Laying the draw was an easy job in the Russia v Czech match. And those poor Czechs are lambs to the slaughter, you feel, against the likes of Holland, Spain, and perhaps Portugal (all attacking sides).
5pm – Netherlands v Denmark – 1.63 home
The first odds on team of the tournament and well deserved. One of those teams, along with Spain, who are blessed with a generation of superb players in all positions, and Holland aren’t too bad either (only joking!)
Let’s look at the Dutch recently and in Euros past to see if there are any strong patterns to their play (my knee jerk reaction would be to expect goals?)
Only 3 draws in their last 20 matches in all competitions. 0-0’s against Switzerland and Brazil suggests that the Dutch have a strong defence themselves but may have trouble breaking down teams with a defensive bent (and there seem to be plenty of them, such as Greece and Russia already!)
Only 3 wins in the last 7 matches may set off alarm bells. Defeats to Sweden, 3-2, Germany, 3-0 and Bulgaria 1-2 (90th minute winner) and a draw with the Swiss, interspersed with impressive 2-3 win away v England, 2-0 home win v poor Slovakia and 6-0 v Northern Ireland.
4 of the last 5 matches over 2.5 goals, the other a 2-0 win.The recent poor runs stopped a breathtaking unbeaten run which, from memory, stretched back to August 2008 (a defeat v Australia).
The team comprise household names and are especially strong in attack.
17 Euro qualifiers without a draw and a recent run of 9 wins ended with a 3-2 loss v Sweden. Of those wins in qualifiers, the Dutch kept 6 clean sheets.
The Dutch have conceded 3-3-2 in their last 3 away matches v Sweden, Germany and England.
Denmark are coming off an 11 match run without a draw. During that run, they scored 2-2-1-2-4-2-2-2-0-1-2 – interestingly when the danish haven’t scored 2 in this run, they have lost!! The Euro website recounts a Bentner on a run of 6 goals in his last 8 internationals. They also mention a creativity in midfield which could trouble other teams.
5 wins in last 6 in Euro qualification included a 2-1 win over Portugal (albeit we need to determine whether this was a dead rubber for the Pork and Cheese?)
I see the Netherlands as a step up here. Indeed, Spain have beaten the Danes in their 3 recent meetings.
A look at the Euro championship matches of the past tells a torrid tale. They just don’t seem to be able to do it at the Euros. But what is the relevance of 2000 and 2004 tournament results? The squad has changed. In these tournaments, they failed to score in 5 of 7 matches.
Denmark have recently lost to Russia and Brazil. I think they will need to score 2 to beat the Netherlands, and suspect these 2 teams might serve up goals.
Indeed I would get on over 2.5 goals if it’s 0-0 for a long period of time. I would look to lay the Danes if they score first as the Netherlands really are strong in attack.
1.63, indeed all odds on quotes, seem eminently layable initially in a competition of this nature. Remember the World Cup and a side like New Zealand. Never underestimate the size of the bus which can be parked!!
So, in conclusion we have a Danish side in recent history winning when they score 2, and losing when they fail to score 2, against a Dutch side who really have been faltering and have conceded 2-2-3 in their last 3 “away” matches (although we cannot determine home/away here). In the Euros, the Danes have a woeful record but recent performance comes from years ago and is not strictly transferable to the modern crop of players.
Both sides are coming off recent runs with none, or few draws. Can we lay the draw (and get great odds the later we lay while the match is being drawn?)
Goals for the Dutch likely to come from Van Der Vaart and Van Persie?
Delayed entry for me into this match may yield better odds?
KEY STATS
HOLLAND
- Only 3 draws in their last 20 matches and 2 of those 0-0 v Swiss and Brazil – solid defensive units.
- Only 3 wins in last 7, all over 2.5 goals trades. Friendly matches so maybe we should not read too much.
- 4 of last 5 matches over 2.5 goals. Will this continue? With Van Der Vaart, Robben, Van Persie, Huntelaar et al, you would think so.
- In competitive Euro qualifiers, 17 without a draw, 9 match winning run ended with 3-2 loss to Sweden (note the Dutch were already qualified).
HOLLAND CONCLUSION – there should be goals. Look for 2 scored. When it comes to competitive football (as opposed to friendlies), the Dutch shine. Lay the draw in competitive euros.
DENMARK
- 11 matches without a draw.
- If the Danes can score 2 goals, they tend to win. If not scoring 2 goals, they tended to lose or draw. Interesting pattern recently! They have Bentner up front.
- Failed to score in 5 /7 matches in 2 past Euro campaigns , albeit 2000 and 2004. Relevance?
DANISH CONCLUSION – lay the draw.
Lay the draw comes up for both sides as a trading option. An ability for the Danes to score, so if they score first, then that should set up a tasty enhanced bet trade.
What does the Racing Post say? It goes for over 2.5 goals which has a chance as Bentner is in form, and Holland I think averaged 3.7 per match in Euro qualifiers.