A reasonable day made better by backing Granary on Betfair at a whopping 14.5 if memory serves – double the traditional bookmaker’s SP – he won which compensated for Sualda’s poor show and Modicum’s non performance
Lord Devert was a surprise winner – I should have read Spotlight more closely – ”
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There’s little between the big three on BHA ratings ”
I did mention the niggle regarding ground and Modicum but as this was a betting forecast shortest price selection I didn’t want to tinker with it.
In the footy, the draw at Arsenal meant the 0 goals difference part of the bet came in which was a nice dutch. With the 2nd goal coming in the 44th minute in the Barca game, this was an ideal opportunity to trade out of the over 2.5 goal bet with 2 goals before half time. Getafe won 3-0 so a nice trade there.
SOFT ground at Hereford today and the first race throws up the shortest priced betting forecast favourite of the day in the 100 with Celestial Gold. Again I’ll not over analyse and just see what happens but soft ground and a 644 day absence are not what I would personally want to be seeing. Interesting to note Celestial Gold is 4/6 and Super Nick has been trimmed to 9/4. This concerns me somewhat as a backer of Celestial Gold. This happened yesterday with Modicum’s race where Sharp Reply was backed off the boards and won. This got me thinking that perhaps dutching using the standard 10% stake may decrease returns but increase strike rate?
Incidentally I was reading through some ebooks last night, and came across a staking plan which may be perfect for this shorties type of betting with its decent enough strike rate but unexciting prices – as Kirsty Wark would say ” more on that later”
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Crocodiles Rock, 4/1 Cooldine Boy, 8/1 Pettifour, 11/1 So Now, 14/1 Choumakeur, 20/1 Carrig An Uisce, Fal Agh Bagh, 28/1 Hillridge, This Way, 33/1 Tisfreetdream, Wizards Dust, 40/1 Morenito, 50/1 Zaffarani´s Star, 66/1 Twenti Twenti, 100/1 Sacred Bull, Sailor´s Sovereign .
|SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Very hard to see beyond CROCODILES ROCK, who was decidedly useful in bumpers last season and who is the clear form pick on what this field have accomplished over hurdles too, having won well in quite a decent Aintree novice on his first try in October. Cooldine Boy can chase him home. [MCu]
Another “very hard to see beyond” type bet which will lead me towards Crocodiles Rock under McCoy, although again in an ideal world I’d prefer ground not to be soft (and Kelly Brook to be preparing my lunch for me!)
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Irish Legend, 4/1 Mendosino, 10/1 Heart Springs, 12/1 Ricardo´s Chance, 14/1 Master Wells, 16/1 Joe Brown, Premier Hope, Take A Mile, 20/1 Arisea, Lyricist´s Dream, Pearly Star, 25/1 Bold Trump, Kristoffersen, Magical Quest, 33/1 Curragh View, Give Me Love, 50/1 Lyon, Water King .
|SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A big field, but IRISH LEGEND (nap) won a similar race with plenty to spare at Exeter last week and is still ahead of the handicapper, despite the penalty. Master Wells may be the best each-way alternative.[FC]
Price gapper of sorts, although you must remember what I’ve said previously about backing in soft and heavy ground. It really does temper enthusiasm. That said, ” ahead of the handicapper” is a positive note. A definite trader in running for me like Modicum yesterday who reached 1.45 in running despite being unplaced
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Grimes Faith, 3/1 Chatshow, 5/1 High Reach, 6/1 Creme Brulee, 8/1 Time Share, 12/1 Aboustar, 16/1 Spinning Game .
|SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: None of these are totally convincing and although Grimes Faith has his best chance for a while, the drop back to 5f has to be a slight concern. CHATSHOW should run his race under these conditions and that may be enough to see him come out on top.[PSm]
An apprentice claimer – it may be worth laying Grimes Faith at 9/4, or backing the horses at 7/2, 9/2 and 5/1 to level stakes over this 5 furlongs in a very bad betting medium
BETTING FORECAST: 2/1 Autumn Charm, 5/2 Copperbottomed, 3/1 Her Name Is Rio, 7/1 Orphan Boy, 16/1 Mama Leo, 20/1 Sir Joey .
|SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Any money for Orphan Boy would be encouraging now he has had a run, but Copperbottomed, Her Name Is Rio and AUTUMN CHARM are reliable in this grade. Marginal preference is for Autumn Charm, who is unbeaten here and who stayed on well to get the better of Copperbottomed here on Tuesday.[PSm]
Autumn Charm a non runner – her name is Rio to place only, albeit at restrictive odds , looks a decent enough call here with the remaining horses at double figure odds
Small fields at Wolves leave us open to a Lord Devert type of shock so the racing there is best swerved.
Again yesterday was a prime example where the bet lost in 90 minutes but from a trader’s perspective was successful at half time – green up when the opportunity arises – it’s key! Trade rather than bet on these over/under 2.5 goal games. With Barcelona playing Sevilla and 2 goals before half time, market makers (you and me!) on Betfair assume that the 2nd half will bring one more goal and so the odds reduce dramatically.
Tonight is the Copa del Rey with the 2 Madrid sides odds on (with bookmakers) to win – Athletico at home, and Real away.
Real are 2.32 away from home (on Betfair) which signifies a tight affair and again winning margin bets on 0 goals and 1 goal at odds of 3.3 and 2.46 look reasonable to level stakes ( or alter stakes on the 0 goals to leave winnings equal over both bets)