Good day yesterday with all shortlisted fancies placing, and yet again we saw the value of place only betting as Front of House, heavily backed, could only manage 2nd place
150 CHELTENHAM
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 American Trilogy, 5/2 Leo´s Lucky Star, 6/1 Over Sixty, 7/1 Golan Way, 12/1 Indian Spring, 14/1 Hunters Ploy, 20/1 Mhilu, 25/1 Spiriton, 33/1 Charley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There is no telling how far the classy ex-Flat racer American Trilogy may go at this game but LEO’S LUCKY STAR sets a good standard and is likely to prove hard to beat if as effective on this ground as he is on a quicker surface
Soft ground at Chelters – guess what? Yes, Nicholls/Walsh on another hot pot! 2 horses at 66/1 can be discounted I hope, leaving us with 7 runners vying for 3 places
Do we focus on all those sub double figure odds? If so, the horses involved are reduced to 4. The strong King/Thornton combo should be involved on Over Sixty. Grade 2 class 1 indicates this is competitive 2.58 / 1.34
300
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 L´Ami, 3/1 Garde Champetre, 8/1 Hoo La Baloo, 9/1 Puntal, 12/1 Crystal D´Ainay, 14/1 Petite Margot, 16/1 Juventus, Oh Jackie, Star Performance, 20/1 Florida Dream, Nuit Rochelaise, 25/1 Dix Villez, 33/1 Sorry Al, 50/1 Pass Me By, 66/1 The Man Himself, 100/1 Fisherman Jack.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Enda Bolger has made a speciality of winning cross-country events and has a strong hand with GARDE CHAMPETRE and L’Ami. The latter, a class act at his best, holds the key but he made hard work of winning a point last month and Garde Champetre, who looked ready to take on the mantle of the stable’s former stars Risk of Thunder and Spot Thedifference last season, may be the answer
No Spotthedifference – one of my favourite horses who simply farmed this race over the years. Edna Bolger is a specialist in this cross country event and guess what, has the 1st and 2nd in the betting. This is 3 miles 7 over cross country fences so does not represent a solid place betting option but you’ll get relatively big place only odds .
An alternative to getting our target profit is to back Garde Champetre and lay off at lower prices in running IF the horse can run as Bolger’s have always run in this event
3.25 / 1.69
4.6 / 1.95
920 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Tubby Isaacs, 11/2 Make My Dream, 8/1 Asian Power, Resplendent Alpha, Royal Envoy, 12/1 C´Mon You Irons, Charles Darwin, Magical Speedfit, 14/1 Loose Caboose, Playful, 16/1 Millfield, 25/1 Doctor Hilary.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive TUBBY ISAACS (nap) can boost an already impressive record on AW over a C&D that suits him particularly well. Make My Dream can chase him home.
Hint of a price gap here 3.15 / 1.44
130 NEWC
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 River Shanakill, 11/2 Stick Together, 10/1 Riodan, Starbougg, 20/1 A Bit Chancy, Overthrow, Primrose Time, 25/1 Aint She The Lady, Doraflora, Luzenie, One More Gypsy, Prioryjo, 33/1 Apsara, La Donna Del Largo, 66/1 Henbeck Lady, 100/1 Ella Maccadella.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not a strong race and the one who stands out is dual Irish point winner RIVER SHANAKILL, who is held in high regard by her new trainer and this looks a good opportunity to get off the mark at the first time of asking over hurdles. Stick Together may be the chief threat
Price gap here, BUT a maiden hurdle and shorties have a poor record in these race types 8/11 in a 16 runner field indicates there may be a lot of deadwood 1.76 / 1.26
250 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Taqdeyr, 9/2 Superior Duchess, 8/1 Balata, Imperial Djay, 10/1 Edmondstown Lass, Wannarock, 33/1 Sixth Zak, 50/1 Mickys Mate, Santa Clara, 66/1 Curly Brown, Daggerman, Lavender And Lace.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: TAQDEYR was a bit of a let-down last time but this looks a good opportunity for the well-bred colt to repay his supporters. Superior Duchess and Balata can fight out the minor honours.
Decent price gap here but a maiden race 1.73 / 1.17
SHORTLIST
If you fancy a challenge then Garde Champetre ( course and distance winner at this venue) at 1.69 represents a relatively big price for place betting
River Shankill and Taqdeyr are my other 2 with preference for Taqdeyr given there are 6 horses at 33/1 or bigger.