Mr Fuming from Killarney signing in. There was I looking forward to a nice hatrick yesterday when those cheese eating surrender monkeys Guegnon decided to score an equaliser in the 90th minute – the bar stewards. As an in running match this one would have been ideal as Nantes took the early lead. One thing to take away from this yet again is the power of trading in running over traditional back and go. If in running I really couldn’t have given a tommy tit if guegnon equalised in the 90th minute – the key factor was that the team I backed, Nantes, score first, because the drop in odds is significant enough to trade out.
Anyway, good to see Thebes win with the minimum of fuss and the unders landing both for traders and bettors in the Brum game.
Note yesterday how many 1/3 shots and shorter came unstuck – why? Heavy ground was the common denominator and throw Irish Racing into the mix and its layers paradise.
Something to note for the future. Simple equation – HEAVY GROUND+ JUMPS RACING IN IRELAND+BIG FIELD +LONG DISTANCE= LAY ANY ODDS ON SHOTS!
EXETER
HEavy ground at Exeter today and we know all about how to approach these days don’t we? Probability that a number of market leaders in the close knit prices races will be vulnerable, especially using the above equation!
220
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Esteem, 3/1 Directa´s Digger, Music Celebre, 6/1 Silent City, 7/1 Benayoun, 8/1 Perseverance
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: SILENT CITY has hinted at ability in some better races than this and is worth another chance at this level given that she is bred to stay well. Directa’s Digger is preferred of the others
6 runner seller in heavy ground and the early prices indicate a 3 horse race at 11/4 (twice) and 5/2.
I am a little suspicious about Perserverence’s form – PPPUP -hardly Cheltenham Gold Cup winning form, and I’ve seen it in the past that these horses miraculously turn into Pegasus when their odds hit 20/1 – funny that!
The betting forecaster indicates a tight race BUT the live market says Benayoun and Perserverence are outsiders. Highly speculative each way punt on Perserverence here with stakes you should write off.
Of course there is the probability to create a bet more likely to come off.
MArket leaders at 3.5, 3.8 and 3.9 at time of writing can be backed to level stakes with perhaps a break even bet on the shortest price horse.
So its up to you – a chance on Perserverence at 27 on Betfair and 9/1 to place for a couple of quid or a dutch on the most probable victors (although this is a seller in heavy ground!)
420
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Holy Joe, 3/1 Gaye Trigger, 11/2 Cobreces, 6/1 Shepherds Hut, Yes My Lord, 10/1 Raregem, 12/1 Lost Time, 33/1 Visibility
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This will take some getting and easy to have reservations about several of these. Holy Joe has to be respected under conditions that he will handle, but he may not be the force he was and preference is for GAYE TRIGGER who has worked his way up the pointing ranks and beat Cobreces at Barbury Castle in January.
“This will take some getting”
8 runners allow for each way speculation in a hunter chase where surprises regularly occur. Raregem and Lost time can both speculatively be backed each way in a day where we hope the heavy ground will allow for surprises
KEMPTON
200
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Outlandish, 9/4 Generous Lad, Turner´s Touch, 14/1 Sol Rojo .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This is likely to be tactical and Outlandish could be handed a soft lead but it is debatable whether his debut win merits a rating of 73 and he could be vulnerable. Preference is for GENEROUS LAD who may be best excused a substandard display last week given his overall consistency.[FC]
Level stakes on the front 3 will leave a break even and slight loss on Turners Touch, with a nice payout if Generous Lad wins – an apprentice runner handicap – prices currently2.7 , 2.92 and 4.4.
NAAS – Heavy ground – let’s see how the short prices get on today. The ideal for laying these is monitoring in running. Some meetings meet the criteria of the equation mentioned above.
HEAVY at Warwick and potential shorties in Tamadot, Trigger the Light, Prince de Seuil, Back among Friends, Dickie Lewis.
I cannot envisage all of these winning (but I’ve seen stranger things) and would consider laying if around 2.00 on BEtfair or lower
On a normal day, I would immediately dismiss all heavy ground race cards and if so inclined you should too. If you fancy a good old fashioned punt on outsiders then today may be a good day with heavy ground at all jumps venues.
3 into 1
No selections yesterday – hopefully none today given the heavy going. Today there’s one selection – 310 WARWICK – PRINCE DU SEUIL
Heavy ground and a small field over the obstacles – hopefully Chocolate Thornton won’t feel too much pressure that 3 into 1 would like a winner!
310 Warwick Prince du Seuil
310 Warwick Prince du Seuil
Two shorties stand out on the footy coupon today – Celtic are 1/4 in their home match against Aberdeen in their Scottish Cup replay. Aberdeen nearly got one over Celtic but for a Vennegoor of Hesselink last gasp equaliser. I will go under 2.5 goals again in this match early doors and if 0-0 look to get out in the half time interval. Can we expect a match similar to the last one? I don’t expect head to heads as they relate to the Scottish Premier league to have any real bearing on this one off match
Level stakes Celtic/Celtic ; Draw/Draw ; Draw/Celtic produces a loss for Celtic /Celtic and a very nice payout on Draw/Draw
Lyon have been superb of late in France , and a superb away routing of Le Mans when priced NOT to win so convincingly
Note – the Betfair market mentions “To Qualify” which leads me to think this may be a Cup game so team news is vitally important. I want to see all the big boys for Lyon out tonight before getting involved.
Again a half time/full time bet similar to the Celtic game .This time I’ll take a loss on Draw/Draw and Draw/Lyon and load profit onto Lyon/Lyon.
For a £30 stake, £20 on Lyon/Lyon at 2.06, £6 on Draw/Lyon at 4.7, and £4 on Draw/Draw at 7.2 produces ££10.64 profit on the first, and £1.80 and £1.20 losses on the other 2 eventualities.