Monash Lad lost in a race I thought was better approached with each way betting and so it proved. Prudence was the watch word yesterday, Median man placed as I expected,as did Buscador. Age of Reason and Pacifisism’s dutch came good.
I was extremely pleased with my analysis of the Bruges game. I used 2 techniques
1) prices – 4/7 for a team awayy from home usually signals a tight affair with the expectation that the most likely winner will be the away side
2) sequencing – 3 consecutive away scores of 2-1 to Bruges had a chance of ending.
Add these together and the dutch on 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 to Bruges ame off with a 1-0 win. Nice odds t
. Today the key factor from a horse racing perspective is the weather.
Can the Soft(Heavy in places) ground at Ascot be compensated for by the quality of horse? Remember ground will probably turn heavy as the day progresses and heavy ground and profitting from betting are not good bed fellows (unlike me and Kelly Brook!)
1235 ASCOT
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Metaphoric, 2/1 Binocular, 6/1 Crack Away Jack, 13/2 Approved Force, 8/1 Distiller, Norman The Great, 100/1 Feeling Peckish, 200/1 Art Of Being .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Metaphoric and BINOCULAR were easily the best of these on the Flat and Michael Bell’s charge has already suggested at Huntingdon that he could be of a similar high standard as a hurdler. However, preference is for Binocular who had the better Flat form on testing ground. Approved Force is probably vulnerable conceding 10lb, while the others with hurdling form need marked improvement. |
Priced up as a match between Metaphoric and Binocular, both, again ,are priced to allow level stakes backing of both horses. Concern for me of course is this ground. Distiller’s absence makes this 8 runner field into 7 – there are still 3 places up for grabs in the Betfaier place only market but I will stick to my dutch.
Those of you seeking each way solace could look at the 3rd and 4th live betting priced horses in the hope they ( and the ground) could work to split Metaphoric and Binocular.
220 – not indepth here but we face again a small field with a market leader at evens and 2nd fav at 9/4, again both backable to level stakes
405
Psychomodo is prone to jumping errors and for me is good lay material to monitor in running ( ie back at a higher price than you laid) – the reasoning? Well the horse may produce an error in the last race on the card ( imagine underfoot conditions then!) which will have an immediate effect on each way prices. Using Fairbot enables me to instantly react.
HAYDOCK
Heavy ground here again signals, to those with patience and discipline, that from a backer’s perspective this card should be avoided. There will be other days
LINGFIELD
Again we face 2 all weather meetings to glean some profit from – not an ideal scenario as racing is generally poor class and very comeptitive
1245
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Lord Deevert, 2/1 Atephobia, 7/1 Whitcombe Flyer, 9/1 Don Picolo, 10/1 Clear Call, 14/1 Whistful Miss, 20/1 Saunders Encore, 25/1 Orphan Boy, Piccolo Pride ,
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This could well see a repeat of the finish to a recent C&D seller where LORD DEEVERT proved too strong for Atephobia late on.[BDO] |
A seller and although we have potential dutches to level stakes in the market leaders, today I will be speculative given the race type and opt for Whitcombe flyer and Clear Call each way
225 – Boomtown looks good for a place only bet albeit at restrictive odds
WOLVES
Given the lateness of the blog it is better to post it on the site now and look at Wolves and the football once that has been done. Ignore the stuff below – it’s yesterday’s news.