4 winners and a 2nd place yesterday – great . Market movers were poor, and this I suppose was expected given the racing yesterday.
200 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Apache Dawn, 11/4 Just Like That, 11/2 Peaceful Means, 8/1 Titfer, 9/1 Petrosian, 10/1 Beshairt, 12/1 Indicible, 20/1 Sweet World, 33/1 Kenai, 40/1 Fateful Attraction, 50/1 Little Firecracker, Louisiade.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: APACHE DAWN is unexposed over hurdles, has a strong chance at the weights and is marginally preferred to Just Like That who has cheekpieces added and Tony McCoy booked. Another worth considering is Peaceful Means who could threaten if settling with blinkers back on after a short break. [DM]
Only 2 under 10/1 with Kenai a possible market move ,at 16/1 with Bet365 early doors
This is a claiming hurdle and I really don’t like claimers
210 SOUTHWELL
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Dontuwishitwereso, 7/1 Ice Attack, Princess Charlmane, 10/1 Love In The Park, 50/1 Minibuzz.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to get away from DONTUWISHITWERESO, who showed more than enough over C&D on his debut to suggest he’s the one to beat in this very uncompetitive event. It says much for the lack of quality of this contest that 47-rated Princess Charlmane may prove the chief threat. [RY]
Continuing the theme
Continuing the theme of looking for the “bleedin obvious”, we have one here – a huge price gap, lessened in the live market with Princess now 4/1
They must be confident as this is a fav in a maiden who has only had the one run
A 28/1 2nd last time out to Never Lose (a place only mention on 10th March) today is only this 3 year olds 2nd run and everyone thinks he will replicate his only run!
I think it is the ratings of the other horses that make this one such a strong fav. Only 2 places so we have to be spot on 1.39 to win / 1.1 to place
220 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 15/8 Vicario, 2/1 Something Silver, 9/4 Toy Gun, 16/1 Reckless Venture, 25/1 Wise Choice, 50/1 Whispering Moor.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With Vicario not going on over fences when last tried in 2006 and Toy Gun suited by further, this looks a fair opportunity for favourably handicapped course specialist SOMETHING SILVER (nap) to bounce back. It is difficult to make a case for the others.[FC].
A messy market. Why is Wise Choice 7/1 in places and Whispering Moor 25/1?
250 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ernst Blofeld, 15/8 Steady Tiger, 4/1 Drever Route, 25/1 Keel Road, 100/1 Asis Supreme, Lisglynn Jim, Mind Your Manners.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: ERNST BLOFELD suffered a shock reverse at the hands of a rival officially rated 24lb inferior at Newcastle but a breathing problem was diagnosed and, given his previous form, he must be given the chance to make amends with a tongue tie fitted on the return to what may well be his optimum trip. Drever Route may also benefit from the tongue tie, but excuses have to be made for him and Steady Tiger is expected to prove most dangerous.[FC]
potential probability race with 3 under 25/1 BUT which will place? The early market has the front 2 making up the majority of the book. 1.2 / 1.33 / 3.6 for the first 3 to place – 2 places
305 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 9/2 Quarl Ego, 5/1 Starr Flyer, 6/1 Archimboldo, Butterfly Rose, 7/1 Cold Harbour, Cootehill, 10/1 Shenanigan, 12/1 Prince Zafonic, 14/1 Capitalise, 16/1 Quasimodo, 25/1 No Regrets.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Quarl Ego is interesting on his handicap debut for a top yard with an excellent record with hurdlers here this season. Starr Flyer ran well last time and has solid claims, while Archimboldo is hard to ignore back at the scene of his demolition job last autumn. But marginal preference goes to BUTTERFLY ROSE who looked rejuvenated back over hurdles last time and that form has worked out well. [DM]
Slight move for Quarl ego into 5/2 (the McCoy factor?)
315 STHL
]BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 La Diosa, 7/2 Amazing Blue Sky, Augusta Gold, 7/1 Urban Space, 10/1 Dispol Diva, 50/1 Canucatcher.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: La Diosa is the pick of the weights but she’s not the easiest of rides and it remains to be seen whether this surface will prove ideal. She is taken on with AMAZING BLUE SKY, who ran creditably over 1m here last time and will be suited by the extra distance. [RY]
Dispol Diva 4/1 in places
325 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Bleak House, 6/4 Netherley, 14/1 Bad Day Bad Day, 66/1 General Stone Hill.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It is difficult to see beyond BLEAK HOUSE and Netherley but both have clearly had plenty of training problems and do not look the most reliable betting propositions.[FC]
2 fighting for 2 places? But read Spotlight!! 1.2 and 1.26 to place the front 2
335 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Mizen Raven, 7/2 Haar, 9/2 Spring Lover, 7/1 Golden Duck, 8/1 Dream Falcon, 12/1 Space Cowboy, 20/1 Dusty Dane.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Haar is open to further improvement after a creditable first completion over fences here last month but MIZEN RAVEN (nap) put in a sound round of jumping when running as well as could have been expected here in January and he is the most interesting runner for a new yard.[EMW]
Outsiders are 8/1 and 12/1 -potential market movers?
345 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 This Ones For Pat, 11/2 Guto, Music Box Express, Sherjawy, 7/1 Hollow Jo, Liberty Ship, 10/1 Martingrange Boy, 14/1 Spic ´n Span, 33/1 Firewalker, 66/1 Ducal Regancy Red, Stoneacre Baby.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A truly run race is on the cards and this could be teed up for THIS ONES FOR PAT (nap), who looks well drawn in stall 4 and is unbeaten in two starts over this C&D. [RY]
Spic n Span 8/1 in places
355 AYR
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Comhla Ri Coig, 9/4 Woody Waller, 16/1 Crackerjack Lad, 20/1 Prince Tam, 100/1 Howards Dream.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A virtual match on paper and the possibility of a falsely run race could muddy the waters, but COMHLA RI COIG has developed into a useful performer and can complete the hat-trick. It may be significant Howard Johnson wants to take on the selection again, but Woody Waller needs to improve.[FC]
Only 2 under 16/1 -concentrate on these. Concern is soft ground at Ayr but the fav has won on soft and heavy 1.1 and 1.27 the front 2 to place
410 LUDLOW
BETTING FORECAST: 4/9 Fairyland, 9/4 Markila, 15/2 My Rebecca, 66/1 Will Exell, 100/1 Night Reveller.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FAIRYLAND found some improvement to strike on her handicap debut on good ground last time, sets a clear standard here and should be hard be hard to beat. Markila is the main danger. [DM]
Plenty of these types of races today and again a 2 (stretching to 3?) runner race (2 places) 1.08 and 1.29 the front 2 to place – 4 2nds and a win in his last 5 for the 5 is good consistent placed form
430 AYR
ETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Kid´Z´Play, 4/1 Beau Largesse, 6/1 Ethan´s Star, 8/1 Solis, 9/1 Isla Pearl Fisher, 12/1 Bespoke Boy, Catai, 14/1 Cote D´Argent, 16/1 Balakar, Spare Days, 25/1 Beneficial Guest.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A weak race and question marks against all of the runners. ETHAN’S STAR may do better with professional handling back over a more suitable trip and is the tentative choice to beat Beau Largesse.[FC]
Catai is 6/1 and Cote D’argent 10/1 in places
435 CLONMEL
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Cru, 9/2 Sorrentina, 6/1 Our Symphony, 8/1 Polly Massini, Rebel Dream, 10/1 Belladventure, 12/1 Vale Of Avocia, 14/1 Citywest Lass, Rock Angel, 20/1 Gray´s Anatomy, Yelena´s Gold, 25/1 Corbetstown Star, Kilburn Lass, Lady Classy, 33/1 Thatsyeremare,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CRU will be hard to beat with a clear round. There has to be some doubt on that score following her failure to complete on her two most recent outings, but in today’s context she should have the beating of several key-rivals on the evidence of her running at Thurles last time.\n
Price gapper for uccessful combo Mullins and Walsh -caution though fp last 2 races 1.27 to place in an illiquid market
450 STHL
BETTING FORECAST: 11/2 Gracie´s Gift, My Mentor, 13/2 Tri Chara, 7/1 Cape Of Storms, Royal Challenge, Whitbarrow, 10/1 Another Genepi, Ballycroy Boy, Royal Island, 14/1 Sweet Gale, This Ones For Eddy, 33/1 Dhhamaan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Gracie’s Gift justified the market support when beating a longstanding maiden on his first run for Richard Guest and may do better. However a penalty in this stronger event makes life tougher and preference is for TRI CHARA. Already a dual C&D winner this winter, he will be suited by the return to this track after a below-par run at Wolverhampton. [RY]
This ones for Eddy 13/2 in places, Ballycroy Boy 13/2 in places – Gracies Gift a market mover last time flagged up by me
510 LUD
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 The Bishops Baby, 4/1 Cashpoint, 5/1 Alesandro Mantegna, 11/2 Peachey Moment, 13/2 The Giant Bolster, 17/2 Moscow Chieftain, 20/1 Lowther, 25/1 Bestowed, 66/1 Wild Bury.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: THE BISHOPS BABY did well to finish third in adverse circumstances last time, sets the target for the others to aim at and gets the vote. Alesandro Mantegna and Peachey Moment are feared most of those with experience, and Cashpoint would be very interesting if attracting support on his debut for a yard that has won this twice in the last three years. [DM]
Peachy Moment now 15/8 in places , quite a move and McCoy on board. Do the stable mean business in this bumper? 1.44 to place
SHORTLISTERS
210 STHL -Dontuwishitwereso – obvious candidate – clear in the ratings but now 4/11 based on a sole run at 28/1 last time out. The rating of the horse he beat into 3rd is the reasoning behind the short price. 1.1 to place in a 2 the place race, our hopes will lie on a replication of the one only run the horse has had and a hope that the others run to their ratings and prices. There is a debutant at 16/1 so obviously we know nothing about this horse but there is no market move for him. Simply a bet placed on faith and price rather than provable long term form. there is a danger that the 2nd run may not be as good as the sole run
250 AYR – must be of interest with only 3 horses under 20/1. Indeed 2 horses are in triple figures!! This should reduce the competitive field to 5, 2 other horses of those 5 are currently averaging around 33/1 prices. Ernst Blofeld (1.2 to place) and Steady Tiger (1.33 to place) make up the 100%+ book on their own which indicates which horses the bookies are concerned about.
NEGATIVES? – soft ground a concern at Ayr. Ernst was a head 2nd at 2/11 last time out -excuse? Breathing problem. Is this rectified? The place only prices are certainly enticing ,but in apparent 2 horse races, there is a chance of a spoiler horse from the rest ofthe field
325 AYR – A 2 horse race so says the market, but Spotlight points at some weaknesses with the market leaders In a 4 horse race, General Stone Hill is 40/1 at time of writing and can hopefully be discounted, leaving 3 with Bad DAy Bad Day at 12/1 who has pulled up and been a faller in 2 of his last 3 runs.
So this leaves Bleak House (5/6) and Netherley (11/8) in another race where the bookies are making their book on these 2 horses only. Bleak House ran poorly in soft on the only occasion he has ridden in soft and it is a reflection on the opposition, I suppose, that he is odds on in ground he may not like. Has emptied out on a couple of occasions too at this distance. The hope is the outsiders run to their prices becausethis is no Kauto Star!!
355 AYR – Characteristic of the day’s races at Ayr, another small field and another top heavy market 5 runner field – one at 100/1 can be discounted, the other outsiders are at 20/1 and 25/1
Different pilot today on Comhla Ri Coig, to offset the double penalty. I don’t know Mr P Benson which casts a slight doubt, but the fav is quite clearly useful and proven in soft ground 1.1 to place
410 LUDLOW – Another 2 horse race (apparently) with Fairyland hot fav and Markila the 2nd fav – 2 horses at 66/1 and 100/1 can hopefully be discounted ,leaving MY Rebecca at 14/1 the fly in the ointment. 1.08 the fav and 1.28 the 2nd fav. Is it worth chancing MArkila to see off My rebecca and get the place? We are betting that the first 2 finish 1 and 2 after the line to take these enhanced odds. 1.08 is a bit stingy
ONE A DAY
A really messy day today. Rarely do 2 horse races end up that way, especially with soft ground likely to play some small part.
1.2 for Ernst Blofeld and Bleak House represent the best odds but both horses come with their niggles. Purely at the prices, I’ll chance Ernst as the first in time order and hope the horses at 25/1 or bigger run to their prices and Drever Route does not interfere.