It wasn’t to be in the Ghana game yesterday, BUT it should have been ! Backing at 1.9 gave us a good angle into the game on the over 3.5 goal market but not every bet will win. A proper staking plan of course accounts for the inevitable losers. On the other hand, 0-0 at half time and full time in the Villareal v Barcelona match meant the under 2.5 goal trade gave us some compensation.
The lesson to learn from the Ghana match is NOT to increase stakes based on the prices suggesting a “sure thing” – there is no such thing as a sure thing!
Russian around gave us a great run for our money but was eventually done by the market leader – Victorias Groom just missed out on the 3rd place for each way returns
Kazal placed well at Gowran Park, and Nickname just won from Kicking King who made a very pleasing return to the fray.
Asiatic Boy won at Nad al sheeba in a race where we could have backed the first two to level stakes for unspectacular profits
The dutch with Godfrey street and Memphis Man was a winner. Contra Mundum won which was a pleasant surprise given the race type. Macademy royal missed out on the place as Mafaheem won in the small field seller.
DONCASTER – SOFT GROUND
Which may deteriorate as the day progresses so caution advised.
1250
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Blue Bajan, 100/30 Akarem, 6/1 Shipmaster, 8/1 Jardin De Vienne, 20/1 King In Waiting, King´s Majesty, 33/1 Bijou Dan, Grumpy Bee, Just Intersky, Yeoman Spirit, 50/1 Canny Bay, Simonside, 100/1 Fair Kald, Hall Of Flame, Leyte Gulf, Little Lily Morgan, Moving Story, Wood Fern .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good race to open with and high-class Flat recruit BLUE BAJAN (nap) can follow up his Leicester success en route to something a lot better, though Shipmaster and Akarem should make it interesting
So Blue Bajan is ” expected to take all the beating” “en route to something a lot better” in this big field novices hurdle. He certainly ticks a lot of boxes – postdata selection, distance winner, progressive form 4/ 2,1 , 12 of the 14 tips, top Racing Post Rating, positive Spotlight. Blue Bajan won as a 1/3 shot in a class 4 on his previous outing as a hurdler, and could come in again.
4/6 is a reasonable price . I am aware of the Burke runner Akarem – a gambling yard, if the money is down for Akarem then heed it!.
14 horses are priced at 33/1 or bigger reducing the real rivals to 4, so I’ll stick with Blue Bajan, with the caveat that I will back and follow in running.
KEMPTON
920
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Contra Mundum, 13/2 Megalala, 7/1 Ernmoor, 9/1 Busy Man, 12/1 Come What July, Sorbiesharry, 14/1 Arthurs Dream, 33/1 Mtoto Girl, 50/1 Ashmolian, Rubilini, 66/1 For Eileen, War Feather .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Even with his double penalty yesterday’s facile Southwell winner CONTRA MUNDUM is hard to oppose with the switch in surface unlikely to pose a problem. If he fails to show, the race is wide open and may provide Busy Man with an opportunity to be brought with a properly timed run after being held up too long or let go too soon the last twice.[GN]
Yesterday’s price gapper selection Contra Mundum is turned out quickly, and given the race time, it would pay to look at the market nearer 920pm. Clear 7 and 8 length winner in his last 2 outings, Contra has a double penalty but I think we can squeeze another win out of him in this poor class of race. It would have been a different story had he been a multiple handicap winner ( ask Justcallmehandsome yesterday – backed off the boards -multiple handicap winner running under a penalty – unplaced)
NEWBURY – SOFT (HEAVY IN PLACES)
205
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Big Buck´s, 5/4 Kruguyrova, 12/1 Oceanos Des Obeaux, 14/1 Gardasee, 16/1 Le Burf .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: BIG BUCK’S (nap) and Kruguyrova are entered in the Arkle and are very closely matched on form. They should fight out the finish and preference is just for the Ditcheat representative, who has looked inexperienced on his two chase starts at this track and has the greater scope for improvement. [DM]
A 2 horse race if the betting forecast is accurate we have 2 fine jockeys on our side. On betfair Big Bucks is 1.96 and Kruguyrova is 2.42 – level stakes will leave a marginal profit on the latter and small loss on the former.
You could simply select one on the toss of a coin and hope for the best
WOLVERHAMPTON
215
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Green Pirate, 100/30 Now You See Me, 5/1 Kingoftheswingers, 6/1 Marmooq, 10/1 Capital Lass, 16/1 Benayoun, Oberows Lady, 33/1 Sharp Tune, Telepathic .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: With a third of the field engaged last night, this race could take on a different aspect in the light of those events, but as things stand it looks between GREEN PIRATE and Now You See Me. The selection is not one to put the mortgage on – he has been a beaten outright favourite on six occasions – but needs only to run to form to take this. Now You See Me ran well enough in a hotter race than this last time to warrant respect, while the chance of Kingoftheswingers could look better after last night |
A potential each way race with 9 runners leaving me a short list of King of the Swingers, Marmooq and Now you see me for each way purposes with the rest of the field at 14/1 or bigger.
Interestingly Capital lass’s odds have doubled to 20/1 from the betting forecast 10/1 – worth seeing how he runs ( or fails to run!)
A speculative each way choice in Marmooq given the race type (seller) – the OBVIOUS selection is King of the swingers
400
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Fajr, 15/8 Baharah, 5/2 Capricorn Run, 14/1 Murfreesboro, 25/1 Regional Counsel, 500/1 Neveronamonday .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hard to know exactly what to expect with none of the runners proven over the distance and a very muddling gallop in prospect. Much will depend on tactics as the race develops but the progressive BAHARAH won a similar event in good style from a couple of today’s rivals last month and, out of a 1m4f winner, ought to be even more effective at this longer trip.[GN] |
I’ll be playing the probability game here, 3 horses with a serious shout in Fajr, Baharah and Capricorn run. Baharah is the morning fav with Fajr and Capricorn run at 2/1 and 9/4 respectively. With the odds so tight, none of the 3 can be discounted but I will lay the live market favourite here in the hope the 2 I have running for me will do the business ( at present that horse is Baharah)
430
A countdown conundrum – who’s reappearing – my close showbiz pal Confidentiality
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Confidentiality, 4/1 Mataram, 5/1 Scamperdale, 6/1 Gloucester, 8/1 Freeloader, 20/1 Tufton, 25/1 Pearl, Rock Anthem .
| SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This ought to be run at a decent pace with Tufton and Pearl in the line-up and there should be no excuses for the hold-up horses. Gloucester and Mataram may just prefer a stiffer test than they will get here so this could be between course specialists CONFIDENTIALITY and Scamperdale with preference for the former whose winning run looked far from coming to an end last time. |
You’ll recount under my multiple winner in a handicap rule I did oppose Confidentiality
Spotlight remains bullish
Confidentiality
Highly progressive filly who completed six-timer last month under double penalty with plenty in hand again after taking up running on bridle; some of previous form exceptionally strong for grade and will be hard to beat
A winner by a neck last time to complete the six timer, this belies the pipe and slippers job for the jockey.
Personally, the winning run must end soon. The price of 7/4 reflects the fact the job is getting harder (4/9 last time out) and Scamperdale and Mataram each way could give the selection a race.
FOOTY
2 sides in the African Nations who need a win – this counts more for Nigeria who must win really and at 10/11 I’ll opt for them, again with my trading head on.
Ivory Coast are 1/4 to beat Benin – this could signal a good over 2.5 goals trade . I will also chance Ivory Coast half time/full time at 1.72 – a bit of a risk given the unpredictability of African football, but we have Drogba and Kalou up front for us who can give us a run for our money. This will be a no bet if either of these 2 don’t play