Racing Testing Lab

A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses.

Background

2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets.

Follow these steps below

1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare.

2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time.

3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.

Yesterday

14 425 kempton Betting forecast: 7/4 Niblawi, 11/4 Quest For Wonder, 13/2 Faith Matters, 2nd 1.87
3 210 newbury Betting forecast: 2/7 Southfield Theatre, 5/2 Carraig Mor, 100/1 My Silver Cloud. 2nd 1.07
8 245 newbury Betting forecast: 5/2 Ned Stark, 11/4 Ceasar Milan, 7/1 Gentleman Jon, 1st 1.7
4 145 Taunton Betting forecast: 6/4 Cody Wyoming, 9/4 Somchine, 4/1 Somemothersdohavem, 1st 1.42
8 155 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 5/2 Acapulco Bay, 5/2 Nolecce, 5/1 Stag Hill 6th 1.9
5 335 uttoxeter Betting forecast: 4/5 The Boss´s Dream, 2/1 Charlie Breekie, 11/2 Monkey Rum, 1st 1.05

Today

12 710 dundalk Betting forecast: 11/8 Avenue Montaigne, 6/4 Bairns At Bay, 8/1 Marol,
8 325 muss Betting forecast: 15/8 Im Too Generous, 9/4 Masirann, 13/2 Chasing Waterfalls
8 1225 newbury Betting forecast: 5/6 Karezak, 6/4 Old Guard, 5/1 Mick Jazz,
13 355 wolves Betting forecast: 9/4 Frozen Princess, 3/1 True Course, 8/1 Robin Hill,
7 525 wolves Betting forecast: 10/11 Royal Battalion, 7/4 John Reel, 5/1 Silver Songstress,