Waterside won repaying those who took the win only single bet on the horse. Mixing won at Kempton for the dutch .
The 200 Ludlow was won by a 16/1 system selection 20/1 in the betting forecast went off at 12/1 (Climate Change) thus throwing a spanner in the works regarding the 3 market leaders.
The 440 at Wolves was definitely one for those to follow the money , ONLY the people following the money would have noticed Mr Macattack, 14/1 in the betting forecast opens up joint favourite then outright fav at 13/8 with Miss Lorne 2nd fav -it had to be a dutch for me with this (yet again)16/1 system qualifier in a maiden race where the money speaks.
Mr Macattack is perhaps an ideal version of the 16/1 system in action. This was the ONLY horse to have moved so dramatically from its betting forecast price AND in a race where money, by necessity , speaks (maiden races with debutants)
Well, the unders came in the Ghana game but at 2-0 it was all but over – the 20 minute mark did not bring a big price reduction but it did bring a price reduction allowing for a trade out. Those who took the under 2.5 straight bet were the luckiest punters in the world – it should have been blown out of the water!
Yet again another 1/5 shot disappointed in the African nations – with NAamibia equalising to make it 1-1 I expected over 2.5 goals to have been met. This I suspect won’t augur well for the Nigeria game today with ultra short odds favourites winning by single goals and even drawing. Usually with 1/5 shots my first port of call is to see whether the half time/full time is worthy of consideration, and my second stopping point is the presumption that there will be more than 2.5 goals ,but, hey, this is African football we’re talking about!.
Nantes v Le Havre finished under 2.5 goals – so Ladbrokes were correct with their assessment of the game as it remained 0-0 for an extended period. Interestingly, www.betdevil.com put forward Le HAvre or the draw despite Nantes being odds on.
FOLKSTONE
SOFT GOING SO CAUTION ADVISED
150
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Numide, 6/1 De Welsh Wizzard, 8/1 Birkspiel, 14/1 Six Day War, 20/1 Eastwell Smiles, Jeu D´Esprit, 33/1 Well Saved, Whistling, 50/1 Bessie Smith, Keltic Moon, Peyekashe, Where´s The Boss, 100/1 Kings Story, Near Germany, Orvita, Pochard .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: NUMIDE won’t be much of a price but there’s very little temptation to see beyond him, especially after the form of his Leicester win received a timely boost with runner-up Matuhi winning nicely at Ludlow yesterday
With recent clear examples of the 16/1 system in action it is interesting to note that 6 day war is now 9/1 ( although its too early to give a definitive thumbs up)
A novice hurdle over soft with prices indicating more quantity than quality, Numide stands out of course. Has run on soft, and like the shortie in the novice hurdle who came knowhere, he looks a shoe in ( although in hindsight yesterday, a poor previous run form the horse yesterday should have sounded a note of caution)
Numide for me is a back and monitor in running I think. The form, Spotlight tells us, has been given a boost.
Those averse to involvement in such short prices in novice hurdle events, won’t get a big liability if laying, but I expect the price to shorten with decent rivals so thin on the ground.
EACH WAY OPTIONS – are quite obvious here in Six day war, De Welsh Wizard and Birkspiel as an alternative to backing a 1/3 shot over jumps
350
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Ommega, 13/8 Pangbourne, 9/2 Stop The Show, 14/1 Sir Harry Cool, 25/1 Tobougg Welcome, 50/1 Alfloratta, Surely Keen, Wee Alfie .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Stop The Show could threaten if stepping up again on his Newcastle third but OMMEGA is the one to beat on the pick of his French form, especially with Pangbourne so far disappointing over hurdles.
IsS French form transferable to England? – I’m not so sure -a very obvious each way candidate in Stop the show and I will side with him in the hope 2 miles 6 in soft will find one of the main protagonists out. Probably better to load the place only side of this bet with a bit on the win.
SOUTHWELL
130
BETTING FORECAST: 6/4 Hora, 8/1 Blue Hills, Cragganmore Creek, Cumbrian Knight, I´ll Do It Today, 10/1 Andorran, 12/1 Sand Repeal, 20/1 Orchard House, Ronsard, 25/1 Cemgraft, Tioga Gold, 33/1 Reminiscent, Subsidise, 50/1 Feeling Peckish .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Hora is going to be very hard to beatif repeating last week’s effort but there will be better short-priced propositions in the coming weeks. Heading the list of each-way alternatives are Malcolm Jefferson’s pair Cumbrian Knight and I’ll Do It Today, with ORCHARD HOUSE also interesting at a price.[GW]
Potential price gapper here now odds on in the morning market, won by 17 lengths last time out.
New to the distance ( dropping 2 furlongs) but a course winner, top RPR (although worryingly only 56!)
NEGATIVES – amateur riders handicap , class 6 race so poor quality , inexperienced jockey.
Another for me to back I think and trade in running – 1 mile 6 is ample time to be reactive. Obvious alternative would be for a place only bet – albeit only 1.26 -nothing has really been backed against the fav.
Here’s what analysis of the previous race says
” Needless to say, she will prove very hard to beat if turning out with a penalty in the near future.”
but they didn’t think an amateur rider would be on board? We’ll need to see the headgear on again.
300
Interesting to see Kanisorn again, backed off the boards when he won a couple of starts ago in selling company. A multiple winner in Italy, the horse, along with compatriate Mon Ami, brought the money home is style.
Kanisorn was a 10 length winner back in selling company last time, beating devilfishpoker.com who has since won.
Another for an in running trade for me back down in selling company
TAUNTON
SOFT GROUND
140
Haldibari
Ability on the Flat for Andre Fabre and shaped with a fair bit of promise both outings over hurdles; that form well in advance of anything these rivals have achieved and will be hard to beat in this company.
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Haldibari, 8/1 Pterodactyl, 10/1 Huguenot, Pacha D´Oudairies, 14/1 Le Beau Bai, 20/1 Norisan, Synonymy, 25/1 Bull Market, Dip Anchor, 33/1 Chilbury Hill, Grumpy Bee, 66/1 Grand Sefton, Mr Excel, Ring Bo Ree .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: This looks a good opportunity for HALDIBARI to open his account over hurdles. The 4yo bettered the form of his hurdle debut when tackling a soft surface at Lingfield last time and a reproduction of that will make him hard to beat. Pterodactyl, a dual French Flat winner, is one to keep an eye on for this hurdle debut. [RY]
Another potential price gapper with the price gap reflected in the live market, positive spotlight comment with those trigger words ” hard to beat” in full view.
Choc Thornton is aboard – a real positive. Of concern to me is the proximity of Huguenot and Pterodactyl in the betting , both 13/2 – why? Well they are both debutants and you will note Huguenot is 10/1 in the betting forecast.
So to say that ” that form is way in advance of anything his rivals have achieved” is misleading .
Obviuous place only material (reflected in the poor price) I will chance Haldibari as a standalone bet.
240
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Robin De Sherwood, 3/1 Marcus, 6/1 Parsou, 8/1 Young Dancer, 12/1 Swift Sailor, 25/1 L´Oudon, 33/1 Killing Me Softly, Leading Article, 50/1 Bright Green, 100/1 The Walnut Tree .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Marcus, Young Dancer and Parsou have to put a poor run behind them and are likely to have their work cut out against ROBIN DE SHERWOOD (nap) who sets a decent standard on his Hereford third
A bit of each way thievery? 10 horses, one at 100/1, 2 at 66/1, 1 at 40/1 and 1 at 33/1 reduces the field somewhat. Shortlist now of Marcus, Parsou, Young Dancer, Swift sailor.
Robin de Sherwood and MArcus for me in a dutch to level stakes ( big profit if MArcus comes in, break even/ slight loss on Robin de Sherwood) -or you could decrease stakes on Marcus to leave marginal profit on Robin
A muddling day with a number of shorties in with a decent shout.
FOOTBALL
Arsenal v Newcastle leaps off the page , BUT surly Newcastle will have learnt something from Saturday’s performance?
If we look for a straight replication of Saturday’s game then Arsenal half time/full time at 1.96 coupled with draw/Arsenal at 4.4 could cover most likely eventualities.
Over 2.5 goals at 1.8 and Adebayour to score at 2.06 look my plays in this , BUT I wouldn’t be surprised if Newcastle react to Saturday’s game
Midlesbrough v Wigan has historically been tight so I will opt for under 2.5 goals. There has only really been 1 goal in it recently.