Exmoor Ranger a great probability example yesterday – yes only 2 the place but with near market rival out, job a lot easier
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Zaarito, 5/1 Lenabane, 6/1 Oscar Looby, 7/1 Preswell Lad, 8/1 Otay Kawn, 10/1 Liscarton Oscar, 12/1 Bootlegger, 14/1 Benjessy, Chapmans Peak, Even View, 16/1 Heavenly Bound, 20/1 Alittleanoften, 25/1 Ask The Foreman, Crowler´s Luck, Entara, Tonto Kacy, 33/1 Alderseed, Barrington´s Pier, Empire Magic, Jonny Rondo, Ragtime Lucy, The Real Rupee, 50/1 City Beach, Mind The King, North Utsira, Skip The Dip, Supreme Strider, 66/1 By Her Side, Lough Lema, Run For Fun.
God knows how many runners – heavy ground – maiden hurdle “very hard to oppose” – only for the brave! 1.95 / 1.23
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Charity Lane, 5/1 Pipo De Re, 8/1 Picaroon, 16/1 Perfect Line, 20/1 Baren De Doc, Cypress Grove, 33/1 Lunar Rock, Owlsley, Radmores Revenge, 50/1 Copper Sound, Phamtom Du Lac.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A thorough test round here is not going to bother CHARITY LANE and it was good to see the horse he beat at Lingfield (pair clear) go one better last week. Pipo De Re could be the best option for those seeking an each-way alternative to the favourite
Heavy ground but why has the fav been backed into 1/3 favouratism – this is a positive
Only 2 horses sub double figure odds – Sam Thomas ,after a double the other day should have confidence restored 1.32 / 1.11
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Clay Hollister, 5/1 Quiver Hill, 11/2 World Shift, 8/1 Cash For Honours, 10/1 Blazing Desert, Murphy, 14/1 Digger Gets Lucky, King Of Castile, Massini Moon, 20/1 Bob ´N´ You, 25/1 Comkilred Champ, Lucky Parker, Native Bob, 50/1 Court Princess.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Interesting to see if his high-profile owner gets stuck into Well Chief’s brother World Shift after an encouraging hurdling debut but the market will also be vital evidence in detecting confidence behind CLAY HOLLISTER, who looked promising when winning a bumper on his debut or Quiver Hill, who is now with Nigel Twiston-Davies after showing plenty of ability in a bumper for Lucinda Russell.[P
Fav has hardened into 5/4 – why is Comkilred Champ currently 10/1 – hmmm! 2.38 / 1.39
BETTING FORECAST: 5/4 Nakai, 6/4 Wichita Lineman, 4/1 Pancake, 14/1 Iwillrememberyou.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Wichita Lineman deserves some credit for his Exeter run as giving weight to the hugely promising Lodge Lane was never going to be easy, but it could be a similar scenario here as NAKAI has a good deal of ability himself and is widely expected to improve for fences.
3 miles in heavy – and the market I think will be the determining factor here – again a clear outsider means 3 are vying for 2 places Wichita the fav 1.36 place
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Andytown, 11/2 Leac An Scail, 6/1 Pay Attention, 12/1 Peters Star, Theatre Belle, Tighten Your Belt, 14/1 Terenzium, 25/1 Balamory Dan.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Leac An Scail is worth another chance with the place money not so hotly contested as last time at Haydock but the way should be clear for ANDYTOWN to follow up his Cheltenham win in a race which doesn’t look overly competitive
Soft ground and I do like Barry Geraghty on shorties 1.92 / 1.21
BETTING FORECAST: 6/1 Earth Crystal, 8/1 Free World, 9/1 King Jack, Lordsbridge, 10/1 Shannon Springs, Wind Instrument, 12/1 Mick Jerome, Mister Gloss, 14/1 At The Money, Court Ruler, 16/1 Harris Bay, Regal Approach, 20/1 Gustavo, Oscatello, Tino Tino, 33/1 Isle De Maurice, Mandingo Chief, Migwell, Talenti.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An open race with a case to be made for several of the established handicappers and some likely improvers among the more lightly raced candidates. Earth Crystal and FREE WORLD are particularly interesting among the latter category and the booking of Denis O’Regan for the latter takes the eye. Free World’s stablemate Wind Instrument, King Jack and Lordsbridge look the pick of the others.
Why is earth crystal 9/4? 3.3 / 1.68
BETTING FORECAST: 8/11 Punjabi, 5/2 Sublimity, 6/1 Blue Bajan, 25/1 Arcalis, Beau Michael, 33/1 Harper Valley.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Punjabi is the one to beat, but with the ground likely to be testing, he is not certain to run up to his best. Sumlimity handles these conditions and is also worth considering, but a chance is taken with BEAU MICHAEL, who has a bit to find, but will relish the very soft ground and should be able to dictate the gallop
Included from a probability perspective but the heavy ground is a concern but the fav still retains odds on status in the live market 1.88 / 1.28
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Justpourit, 7/2 Nuvelli, 5/1 Florida Express, 7/1 Beantown, 12/1 Washington Lad, 50/1 Quarryfield Lass.
It is Nuvelli who is odds on here! 2.18 / 1.35
BETTING FORECAST: 4/7 Master Minded, 11/4 Tidal Bay, 10/1 Takeroc, 14/1 Twist Magic, 33/1 Mahogany Blaze, 40/1 Fiepes Shuffle, 100/1 L´Antartique.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: MASTER MINDED, like the horse after whom this race is named, is one of those rare individuals who can deliver a performance that simply takes your breath away and hopefully he will be back in the sort of form that left viewers of last season’s Queen Mother Champion Chase gasping for superlatives. His trainer, who has such a good record in this race, also saddles Takeroc, who remains immensely promising, and last year’s winner Twist Magic, who should not be written off after Exeter, but Tidal Bay, whose stamina will be brought into play with the strong gallop, may still prove the main threat.
A 2 horse race here? 1.65 / 1.32
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Inchidaly Rock, 6/1 Pause And Clause, 10/1 Duke Of Miskin, 14/1 Best Of Three, 20/1 Prairie Spirit, 25/1 Arturo Uno, 33/1 Cobra, 50/1 Darn Hot, 100/1 Master Cobbler.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pause And Clause and Duke Of Miskin are decent each-way propositions but INCHIDALY ROCK looks seriously promising and is hard to take on after Junior gave his Exeter form an almighty boost when winning a Grade 2 at Sandown yesterday
Duke of Miskin the market mover – again ground a concern if gettin on a 1/3 shot 1.32 / 1.11
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Aurora Sky, 7/4 Miss Beat, 9/2 Port De La Ponche, 7/1 Faldal, 33/1 Eurotanz, Luckier, Seminal Moment, Tattercoats, 50/1 Peace In Paradise, 66/1 Ballade De La Mer.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: It was disappointing Miss Beat did not progress from her good Newmarket debut when turned over at odds-on at Wolverhampton next time and she may again have to settle for the runner-up spot behind AURORA SKY, who ran so well on last month’s Kempton debut. Port De La Ponche and Faldal look clearly best of the remainder
Miss Beat a non runner surely opens the race up for Aurora Sky? 2.7 / 1.28
My one a day will be the last mentioned race – why? Well all other venues are jumps, heavy and soft ground. The Great LEighs race sees a near market rival a non runner which makes the job of Aurora Sky a lot easier.