Well it looks like the Irish pairings came good yesterday – 1st race 1st 6/1 and 2nd 5/1 out of 2 selections, Campfire glow unplaced, Tiffany Diamond 2nd at 4/1, Cotaachi 8th at 14/1, Regime 1st at 5/1, Mount Nelson unplaced, Cahingar 2nd at 9/1, Trojan warrior unplaced. All in all a satisfactory day if each way betting was used. The big priced winners will come .
Elsewhere, Miesko unplaced, Austontatious won, Khateeb won, “so many quick races” did for Stevie Thunder, and the day ended with a nice Draw/Chelsea half time full time result as they asserted in the 2nd half.
Somewheree in an old blog was the Ronnie bet and he came good with the minimum of fuss ,meaning BBC2 had to quickly put on some crap repeat to fill in the time they had allotted for an Ali Carter wonder revival but he was a rabbit stuck in headlights yesterday!
So, a Monday worth staying away from B and Q and betting !
635 CATTERICK
BETTING FORECAST: 4/5 Court Of Appeal, 7/1 Let It Be, 8/1 Bijou Dan, Brastar Jelois, 10/1 Eijaaz, 14/1 Goldan Jess, Skye But N Ben, 16/1 Annibale Caro, On Every Street, 33/1 Ellies Faith, Tykie Two, 66/1 Channel Crossing, Pendragon, 100/1 Never Cross, 200/1 Vie A Deux .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A good opportunity for COURT OF APPEAL to repeat last year’s success in this event. He confirmed his wellbeing when successful at Musselburgh last time and has conditions to suit here, whereas most of his main rivals on form have something to prove
Price gapper – let it be close at 13/2 currently,
POSITIVES – 25 day course and distance winner – winner last time out – progressive form – 12/13 tips – top RPR – postdata selection –
NEGATIVES – claimer – hint of soft ground?
4/5 is okay if using HTB selections in a staking plan like the fasttrackplans.
735
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Cavendish, 5/1 Aston Lad, Vice Admiral, 6/1 Chip N Pin, 12/1 Bronze Dancer, Just Waz, 14/1 Coronado´s Gold, Toss The Caber, 20/1 Foxxy, 25/1 Compton Commander, 33/1 Senor Set .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Newmarket raider Cavendish is the only one of these who comes here at the top of his game and he clearly has to be respected, but there will be many trainers wishing the handicapper was as lenient with their horses as he has been with VICE ADMIRAL and Mick Easterby’s gelding is expected to make a bold bid now reunited with last year’s winning rider Dale Gibson.
Another hint that Cavendish is opposable – currently 3/1 early doors ( compare that with the 7/4 betting forecast and it’s bye bye price gapper) 3 before 12/1 and I’ll go along with Spotlight here with Vice admiral, but will entertain laying Cavendish – these opposite moves have proven to be very accurate in determining a shorties likely running
835
BETTING FORECAST: 10/11 Ramaad, 11/4 Marning Star, 9/2 Dubai Meydan, 8/1 Carr On Fire, 12/1 Imperial Djay, 25/1 Ezdeyaad, Jakam, 50/1 Crossing Bridges, White Elephant, 66/1 Noche De Reyes, 100/1 Paris Hall, Watch This Place, 200/1 Fluoree, Miss Understanding, Mystik Megan .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not much strength in depth here and an obvious chance for RAMAAD (nap) to get off the mark and continue the good run of his yard (four winners last week). Dubai Meydan was very disappointing at Southwell last week and a bigger threat is likely to come from Marning Star despite the drop in trip.[
The race is a long way away but why is Ezdeyaad currently 14/1? If remaining so, worthy of each way support as this is a maiden and this could be a market move
CHEPSTOW
240
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Nisaal, 5/2 Border Owl, 4/1 Murcar, 10/1 Themwerethedays, 14/1 Asian Classic, 16/1 Abstract Colours, Shaama Rose, 20/1 Loveofmylife, 33/1 Berry Pomeroy, Princess Flame, 50/1 Heartsanddiamonds, 100/1 Hill Of Clare, Persian Wish .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The fact that Nisaal was sent off a shortish price on his Newmarket debut suggests he is well regarded and he looks capable of much better. Murcar should be up to winning races and can go well, but BORDER OWL improved with each start at two and can make a winning reappearance.[PSm]
Nisaal out to 9/4, border Owl out to 7/2 but Murcar also 7/2 and it is the latter I will go for, preferably each way, or a derivative eg place only with a bit on for the win on Betfair
620 EXETER
BETTING FORECAST: 5/1 Bon Viveur, Haunted House, 6/1 Et Maintenant, 13/2 Whatcanisay, 7/1 Wild Power, 8/1 High Life, Musical Gift, 10/1 Charming Oscar, Pen Gwen, 14/1 Kova Hall .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Most of these have questions to answer on some score. Haunted House was tempting on his return but a chance is taken on BON VIVEUR, who should be capable of doing something off this mark if taking to fences and there’s good reason to believe the return of cheekpieces will help him
10 runners and 5/1 the field indicates the market leaders can be taken on surely with the “outsider ” at 14/1
I’ll go somewhere in the middle with a lucky dip at Wild Power each way
650
BETTING FORECAST: 4/6 Oumeyade, 8/1 Cava Bien, 10/1 Migwell, 12/1 Blaze Ahead, Bob Mountain, Cullahill, 14/1 Mister Sher, 20/1 Bengal Bullet, 25/1 Beau Supreme, Kristoffersen, 33/1 Ladino, 50/1 Grave Doubts .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: No surprise to see OUMEYADE (nap) out again so soon as connections look to strike again before the handicapper hammers him and he should take some stopping. Mister Sher is the best alternative.
Price gapper here who “should take some stopping” – Culahill at 7/1 an obvious each way alternative incase the market move is accurate – Ruby on the jolly and at 4/7 worthy of investment albeit over 3 miles
250 KELSO
BETTING FORECAST: 2/9 Flight Leader, 7/1 Palmers Peak, 10/1 Mr Preacher Man, 16/1 Treasured Memories, 33/1 Allborn Lad, 40/1 Cupid´s Mission, Garleton, 100/1 The Rede Mouse .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Based on his old hurdles form, FLIGHT LEADER has over three stone in hand of his rivals and, while it’s not certain he retains all of that ability, he probably wouldn’t need to run anywhere near that level to make a winning chasing debut. Palmers Peak could be the forecast material.
8 runners allows for each way thievery – Mr Preacher Man each way just before the 16/1 horse
FOOTY
Another treble with potential here –
19:45 Sion vs Thun 8/15 13/5 9/2
19:45 FC Zurich vs St Gallen 8/15 13/5 9/2
16:30 Kaiserslautern vs St Pauli 2/5 11/4 6/1
2 home teams at 4/7 (or thereabouts ) and one at 1/3 (or thereabouts) -again probably pays around 2/1 or 3.29 decimal.
A system for a full season next year to see how it performs – more out of curiosity the above bets given I am no expert on football from Cookoo clock country.