Well ,as you’ll see on the comment to yesterday’s blog entry at www.back-lay-trade-horses-football.blogspot.com, I laid off at 1.05 in running using the green up feature on Fairbot on Shoreacres who eventually fell. It was more by luck than judgement but I stuck to my plan and was rewarded.
Yesterday perhaps shows that my cautious approach to heavy ground and jumps was vindicated and not overtly cautious.
In a day where I could not personally guage the ground conditions, it would, in hindsight, have been wiser to have concentrated on the all weather meetings.
Shoreacres was a casualty, as was Gauvain who traded at 1.05 in running in the place only market.
Quartz de Thaix won, Ping Pong Sivola won, and Whiskey Creek lost as I expected ecentually ( a day too late the bar steward!) , Mount Sandel won, Limerick Boy won, Espris de Midas won, Devotee unplaced, Speak the truth won, St Moritz won.
All in all an excellent haul and the key component to one a day success is making the right decision!!
LEt’s learn from yesterday – heavy ground at Ayr means I’ll swerve this one!
120 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 11/10 Desert Bump, 3/1 Precocious Air, 100/30 Special Bond, 12/1 Michelle, 25/1 Farriers Gate, 33/1 Whotsit, 50/1 Outdroad.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: DESERT BUMP has something to find with Special Bond and Precocious Air on adjusted official ratings but is going the right way which can’t necessarily be said of the main opposition and she is taken to gain back-to-back wins.
7 runners, 3 of whom are 40/1 or bigger. The field of potential winners, then, can hopefully be reduced to 4, 2 of whcih will place.
Michelle I hoped to discount but at 7/1 may be in with a shout. 1.38 to place and only 2 places
140 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 11/8 Pause And Clause, 4/1 The Shoe, 5/1 Frontier Dancer, 7/1 Helpston, 12/1 Quinz, 14/1 Dorothy´s Friend, Springfield Raki, 66/1 Comkilred Champ.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: An above-average stayers’ novice event with five of the eight runners holding entries at the Cheltenham Festival. Helpston, who is not in that group, looks very promising but has no easy task giving weight all round, notably to PAUSE AND CLAUSE (nap), whose Newbury second reads very well. The Shoe is an unknown quantity but Frontier Dancer is capable of getting involved if returning in the same form as in the autumn.
NOTE – this is the jumps course – soft ground and 2 miles 5 furlongs – included as there is a semblance of a price gap. 1.34
150 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 13/8 Chjimes, 11/4 Mutamared, 5/1 Qadar, Storey Hill, 7/1 Thoughtsofstardom.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CHJIMES has won handicaps here on his last two starts and the return to 6f from 5f should help him gain the edge once more, probably at the chief expense of Mutamared
Qadar now 12/1 in the live market and a top heavy market here with Mutamared now sharing favouratism at 6/4 1.34 and 1.41
245 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Prairie Hawk, 5/1 Vanquisher, 11/2 Nounou, Taxman, 6/1 Sea Cliff, Spume, 10/1 Nothing Is Forever, 20/1 Bet Noir, 25/1 Bolton Hall, Rebel Raider, 33/1 Diktatorship, 40/1 Born West.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: A great deal depends on which Prairie Hawk turns up and renewed support in the betting could prove ominous for the rest. Several of his rivals are likely to give their running but while many have proved themselves far more likely as place options, another chance is given to SEA CLIFF on Polytrack in the expectation that more forcing tactics will be adopted than at Lingfield
Fav now 15/8 in places 1.56 to place
250 KEMP
BETTING FORECAST: 1/2 Denman, 6/1 Albertas Run, 7/1 Joe Lively, 8/1 Trabolgan, 14/1 Madison Du Berlais, 33/1 An Accordion, 50/1 Niche Market.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: There are obvious reasons why DENMAN is unlikely to be at his best but hopefully the health scare he had in the autumn is well behind him and, if so, he will more than likely have enough in hand to see off this field on his way to another Gold Cup challenge. With the ground an issue for Albertas Run and Trabolgan yet to show he is still a force, Joe Lively and Madison Du Berlais have place chances
YES its 3 miles over jumps – YES it’s soft ground – BUT it’s ONLY FECKING DENMAN! 1.38 to place – a huge price! – something amiss? This is the price quoted in the betting forecast for him to win!
320 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 7/4 Fantastic Fred, 3/1 Miss Fritton, 6/1 Autumn Morning, Turn To Dreams, 8/1 Nimmy´s Special, 10/1 Miss Cracklinrosie, 20/1 Citizenship, 33/1 Kneesy Earsy Nosey.
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: The progressive FANTASTIC FRED (nap) rates the one to beat on this bid for a quickfire hat-trick on a surface that clearly suits well
As has been a running theme of late, we have another handicap fav on a hatrick – he’s priced to win again but Miss Fritton is very close in the betting 1.29 to place
Watch out – Citizenship is 10/1 (look at the betting forecast price!!)
355 WOLVES
BETTING FORECAST: 11/4 Harry Up, 7/2 Doubtful Sound, 4/1 Wotashirtfull, 7/1 Pawan, 10/1 Bo McGinty, Canadian Danehill, Godfrey Street, 14/1 Gwilym, 25/1 Haajes,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Pick of some in-form speedsters could be HARRY UP, who remains on a competitive mark and, with confidence bolstered by recent easy wins here, can win the battle for the early lead with Wotashirtfull. Course specialist Doubtful Sound completes the shortlist
3rd fav out, in a 10 runner race reduced to 7. Still 3 the place? If so, then Harry Up must be a place contender? 1.52 to place (illiquid market)
445 LING
BETTING FORECAST: 1/3 Flamsteed, 9/2 Geese A Laying, 16/1 Wicksy Creek, 25/1 Kalligal, 33/1 Only Hope,
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: FLAMSTEED ought to get off the mark at the expense of Speak The Truth in a very weak maiden
Trigger words – very much the one to beat. Priced to win and win well – caution – maiden!
1.38 to win, and 1.08 to place in a market which has not formed just yet
ONE A DAY
WEll, what can I say? Is Denman being ridden by Stevie Wonder this afternoon? 1.38 to place looks very very tempting indeed. 8/15 at time of writing sounds a note of caution amongst the backers here. Is the health scare mentioned in Spotlight playing on backer’s minds.
This is a Gold Cup winner for feck’s sake!
Another note of caution – this is not a “must win” for Denman – as Spotlight says “getting a run into him prior to Cheltenham may be the priority”
I just don’t like anything else personally today – Flamsteed is very obvious but is sub 1.1 ( if touching `1.1 I would consider backing to place
Elsewhere in the footy Celtic are 1.08, Chelsea 1.23 , AZ ALKMAAR are 1.24, Anderlecht 1.21 and AC Milan 1.23.
I wanted to do a double with Celtic and Rangers but Rangers play tomorrow.
Now 1.34 for over 2.5 goals is the one I think for Celtic’s match. Any team at 1.08 is priced to score at least 3 on their own!
Half time/Full time is 1.34 too which is tempting
In conclusion, I think Denman to place at 1.38 is too tempting to forego although I am very aware that this price “seems too good to be true” and may prove so!
If the ground looks to be becoming heavy then this will be a no bet and I will revert to the football instead in a day where it is tricky to nail one good priced place ( Flamsteed is NOT a good price at present).