A day which could have been made much better had the Godolphin 3rd string won and not placed 2nd by a head at 14/1. Again Aiden O’Brien surprised with a 2nd place at 25/1 with Moonstone in a race where none of the O’brien pricipals performed
Carrying on the IRish theme Sawtooth Mountain in the 530 – but this is a maiden
BETTING FORECAST: 3/1 Teacht An Earraig, 7/2 Mores Wells, Winchester, 6/1 Timari, 8/1 Arch Rebel, Lisvale, 12/1 William Hogarth, 14/1 Hindu Kush, 20/1 Reformist, Soinlovewithyou.
Hindu Kush, Reformist, William Hogarth, Reformist, Soinlovewithyou. I’ll chance all each way in the hope for a surprise
830 – Streetstyle
BETTING FORECAST: 9/4 Fragrancy, 100/30 Candy Mountain, 7/1 Royal Fantasy, 15/2 Ronaldsay, 8/1 Fongs Gazelle, Lisathedaddy, 12/1 Free Offer, Montrachet .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Improving FRAGRANCY (nap) ran a blinder in defeat at Redcar and, so long as the ground remains suitably lively, she should take some beating. Lisathedaddy is back on a mark she can exploit but Candy Mountain could be the fly in the ointment if she takes to her first-time visor
Fragrancy out – does this open the race up for Candy Mountain?
Bahia Breeze has Smullen on board
THe Derby contains a wealth of O’Brien entries, and as with Soldier of Fortune’s victory with Macarthur in 3rd at 12/1, some horses will be sacrificed as pace setters
BETTING FORECAST: 4/1 Casual Conquest, 9/2 Curtain Call, 5/1 New Approach, 6/1 Tartan Bearer, 8/1 Doctor Fremantle, 10/1 Tajaaweed, 14/1 King Of Rome, 16/1 Frozen Fire, 20/1 Kandahar Run, Rio De La Plata, 40/1 Alessandro Volta, Washington Irving, 150/1 Bouguereau, 200/1 Alan Devonshire, 500/1 Bashkirov, Maidstone Mixture,
Casual Conquest for Weld, Washington Irving, Alessandro Volta, Bashkirov, Frozen Fire and King of Rome represent Aiden O’Brien.
Bashkiriv is likely to be a spoiler, with all other entries appearing priced to hold chances. Again, each way in the hope for a shock – it’s a competitive field as the 4/1 fav implies without Bashkirov
It was interesting to hear Jonny Murtagh so bullish about all the BAllydoyle entries indicating his ride is a personal choice rather than being the outright best Ballydoyle representative
Euros begin and the Swiss were solid in the World Cup – not losing BUT not progressing! Correct score dutch looks worth entertaining – half time score 0-0 at 2.4, 1-0 and 0-1 around 5 – back all 3 with slight loss on the 0-0
Lay the draw in the 2nd half at 2.48 may be worth a punt if a draw athalf time
Under 2.5 goals is 1.55 and looks eminently tradeable – perhaps even under 1.5 goals at 2.62
I’m going to chance 1-0,1-1,2-0,2-1 in the Portugal match, the assumption being the Portugeuse should win
Ronny and Nuno Gomes can both be backed to be first goalscorers at 6.8 and 9.4
Portugal look reasonable at 8/11 to beat to back and lay off if they first.
Elsewhere Germany to be semi finalists at 1.69 looks worth an interest, laying Group B at 2.80 to have most goals – we have effectively 12 teams working for us here!