A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses. Background 2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets. Follow these steps below 1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare. 2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time. 3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
A quick reminder, we place back the bookmaker’s favourite and not the Betfair favourite. This is an important distinction as quite often these are 2 different horses. Background 2013 saw this place only betting idea of mine profit by about 45 points. That’s a decent return given the short odds which prevail in place only betting markets. Follow these steps below 1) the races listed here are chosen from www.racingpost.com because they feature ” apparent ” 2 horse races. This is in inverted commas because we are using the betting forecast which is simply just a journalist’s idea of how the race will fare. 2) we back in the to place only market at www.betfair.com , to Betfair SP, the bookmaker’s favourite in these races. I tried a number of different strategies such as following the betting forecast favourite, or 2nd favourite, and found over time that the bookmaker favourite placed 80+% of the time. 3) we back in the to place only market at odds of between 1.1 and 1.5 only. Anything under 1.1 is simply not worth it. A cut off point of 1.5 ensures the strike rate does not diminish as we move to higher place only odds.
Yesterday
4 400 towcester Betting forecast: Evs Thomas Crapper, 7/4 Violet Dancer, 4/1 Minella Present, 3rd 1.2
Today
7 640 chelms Betting forecast: 5/4 Royal Pearl, 5/2 Not So Gentle, 8/1 Captain Gerald,
8 440 exeter Betting forecast: 4/5 Abidjan, 11/4 Angus Glens, 11/2 Silver Dixie
7 535 tramore Betting forecast: 6/4 Taras Call, 9/4 Catch The Magic, 5/1 Den Then,
After an amazing run, there are an uncharacteristic number of selections not placing. This coincides with this new month of October. Is it caused by weather or a transition from flat to jumps?
I think its the change if season. My place system runs at about 95% but I have found winning bets hard to come by. Lots of 2YO races, still with horses never run before (this late in the season!). Juvenile hurdlers that appear good horses but don’t get home.
9/10/15 no racing selections day