As you know I’ve been trying to create a backing system for the horses with the proviso that we should do as little as possible to get our selections, and use the best money management and staking to maximise profits/minimise losses. So what has happened with my 3-into-1 system since last month? Well it’s been a big disappointment BUT is salvageable. Lots and lots of 2nd places didn’t help nor did the 20-point loss to level stakes produced by all odds on selections.
With that in mind, then, it was quite obvious that odds on selections would have to be left alone. A 6- point loss on selections over 3/1 led me to conclude that we only use selections between odds of evens to 3/1 (thinking laterally – is there a way to benefit from the odds on shockers through laying? Odds on laying means liability is lower than stake!)
The Pocket and Master Staking Plans referred to in last month’s newsletter are the staking plans which I favour most because of their small stakes relative to betting bank and ability to increase profits further than levels stakes In the next chart (see below), the lower line represents level stakes and a 10% return. I will continue to work with the 3 into 1 system and eventually hope to be able to offer you a blueprint for what looks like a decent investment type system with unspectacular yet consistent returns.
More price restrictions increase profits
Continuing this running theme, one of Stephen Brookes (“We’re not worthy, we’re not worthy!”) systems, Racing Unlocked is proving profitable, BUT not with the staking plans he has advised. Level stakes on all qualifiers produces only losses, but restricting qualifying bets to between evens and 3/1 produces a nice 21 point level stakes profit. Again level stakes is ideal for the 9 to 5’er because we simply get our bet and place the same stakes on each selection. Take a look at the next chart. With the versatile Fasttrackplans again level stakes is steady and consistent (the lower line) but has not moved significantly for some time.Master and Pocket, the preferred staking plans, produce a far better return. Compare this to a 13-point loss to level stakes using the system as advised via the ebook. Unlike the promises on the website at www.racingnlocked.com, you won’t be making “£200, maybe £350, every single day”. I have not trialled their lay system yet as I only received the back system from one of my contacts. But by combining this with the fasttrackplans (www.fasttrackplans.co.uk – $45 – a great investment!) we give ourselves the opportunity to become our own investment managers!
Top 6 System
Again mentioned in the Handicap article last month, an unspectacular strike rate has produced a 40-point level stakes profit (although a winner at 22/1 somewhat skews the more realistic returns). A 29% strike rate like The Winning Formula means losing runs are expected but to just £10 level stakes since year start, a £400. profit has accrued. A lesson to learn re the loss retrieval (the volatile line) with this type of strike rate. Yet again, it is a system relying on an element of faith that a good priced winner will arrive in a timely way to compensate for losers. Losing runs in the double figures should be accounted for by anyone wishing to follow this simple system.
A number of horses at 5/1 or bigger have placed (I would go as low as 11/4 for each way) and by incorporating each way betting, this will further protect the betting bank as we will not lose stakes for 2nd places with these prices. This is something I will put through the software and see returns from an each way perspective. It would seem that placing price restrictions like the above 2 systems and The Winning Formula is a vital tool especially when strike rates are unspectacular. I will wait to collect a bit more information regarding the Top Weight Handicap system before I definitively comment on it.