Hi
Blimey, this is slower than a snail climbing Everest!
No I’m not talking about Luca Toni, rather it’s my broadband out here in the country. It’s been a very frustrating week on that front but I hope to change it in the near future. I get in the swing of things then it takes a weekend for one website to be downloaded.
The swear jar, you can guess, is overflowing!
Well the Euros are coming to a conclusion. I backed Turkey at 9.6 to trade out after they scored first, and laid the draw yesterday in the Spain game. So what’s going to happen in the Final? Hmm. It will be very interesting to see the market’s take on this and perhaps take my cues from there.
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Follow The Money – a new twist!
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Well this is not quite a follow the money system, but a regular correspondent Nigel has noted some interesting winners where the betting forecast price in The Racing Post is THE SAME AS the live market price – most notable recently for the win by Minwir yesterday – 25/1 in the betting forecast and 25/1 in the live market.
Selective viewing? I don’t know, but this is a pattern that I can backtrack with and report to you on in the future. Nigel’s blog at http://horseracinglayingtowin.blogspot.com/ is well worth a read as it’s his place to bounce off his ideas and may offer a free resource for you to build on the work he is doing!
Elsewhere this week, particularly with the Irish Racing, I have been messing with a dutching philosophy of backing those horses you would generally think worth laying and laying those you’d think would be included in a backing dutch.
1st race at Fairyhouse yesterday – 12/1 winner. 4th race – 25/1 winner – 5th race 12/1 winner and 6thrace 12/1 winner.
Now it works by ignoring the market leaders and dutching the rest of the field. Stakes are generally low and returns are always a comparatively decent price – sometimes 5/1 and up to 7 or 8/1 (i.e. potential returns can be 7 or 8 times our stake outlayed backing these outsiders)
Included in this philosophy, I have also laid those horses in the place market who scream out to be backed. Again, liability is low as they are generally odds on shots but the potential for upsets is rife.
We can include here, I suppose, a list of “YIKES” races -you know the kind – apprentice sellers, sprint handicaps, even listed races with a very short priced favourite and maiden races with very short priced favourites.
A good example came yesterday in the Class 1 race at 430 Newcastle. Ghaidaa was 5/4 and Jamboretta at 7/2.
The race was won by Classic Remark at 40/1 with Ghadaiaa unplaced. The reason? I suppose the competitive nature of Group 1 races?
So using the philosophy here of laying what we’d normally back and backing what we’d normally lay, I laid Ghaidaa to place, and backed 7 outsiders. Again about a 7/1 return on stake by dutching the bigger prices.
Of course it won’t profit all the time but if we’re effectively backing big priced selections it should profit well over time using SELECTIVE races. Something for me to very definitely work on, and perhaps draw up a list of likely races for a future article. Gut instinct tells me that the Irish racing is a great starting point.
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BETFAIR RAPID
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Do take a look at the free application Betfair are offering their customers. Yes, it’s free, and provides you with a speedier betting interface than if you used the site itself.
Here’s the blurb:
“We’re pleased to be able to announce the launch of a new product today, Betfair Rapid. Betfair Rapid is a standalone application for Windows Vista and XP that offers customers a new customisable, high- speed way to bet on the Exchange.
Betfair Rapid Key Features
* Free download*
* Rapid price updates (up to five per second)
* Enhanced betting interface
* Fully customisable screen
* Sortable market view
* Single-click betting
* Make market navigation even easier with Rapid’s enhanced and fully customisable market menu
* Weight of Money indicators, Fill or Kill bets and much more
* Vista and XP compatible
You can download the Betfair Rapid software by visiting our dedicated microsite at http://rapid.betfair.com/
* Betfair reserve the right to charge for this product in future.”
The price is right, of course – it’s free!
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Recommended Dutching Opportunity
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How can you roll £1,200 into £9,155 in 12 months… £30,678 in 24 months… and £48,145 in just 3 years dutching favourites? Click here to find out:
http://www.canonburypublishing.com/pegasuswin
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B*****S – wherefore art thou?
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Normally, by the time it’s taken you to read thus far, Master Brookes will have released 50 ebooks, but I have not heard from him for a while now. I do hope he is ok and have sent a Get Well card to Ebook Towers, his country residence. Perhaps he’s used up his thesaurus I got him for Christmas to help him generate more ebook titles?
Elsewhere there have been no real new releases to tell you about. I am tracking the follow the money systems as well as one or 2 of the systems I spoke about previously.
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NEW BALLS PLEASE!
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With the exits of Sharapova and Djokovic this week, and with a degree of aftertiming – (d’oh!) it would be a good exercise to lay these very very short priced players. Sharapova was as low as 1.02 and, for a liability of £20 you could have won £1000!
Oh boy, how I wished I’d been on that! You never know if a very hot favourite may lose the first set, allowing for tremendous trading potential or just leaving the bet, safe in the knowledge you will, let’s say, lose £2 for a potential gain of £100!
Surprises do occur, and who’s to say Fed, with his silly cardigan (he has to wear it -his Gran gave it to him for Xmas!) won’t lose a set or face a battle at some stage.
Have a great weekend!
Clive