By now you will have no doubt heard of the Football Cash Generator which has been flogged widely . . . This system dealt with laying the draw, and taking out an insurance bet on the 0-0 scoreline. The idea was that a team (preferably the more fancied team) score first and the odds for the draw rise above that at which you had laid them, enabling you to green up (create a no-risk bet). Great in theory, but what if the under dog scores first?
The odds for the draw will remain as is or even get bigger as the market expectation is based on the more fancied team getting an equaliser. What if it remains 1-0 and the draw odds have still not dropped to a figure to enable a successful trade? What if 2 goals are scored in quick succession to make it 1-1? What if, what if what if! There are a lot of grey areas and the system, as sold, was frankly not up to scratch from a long-term profit potential.
Well a variation of the system has come up on the market place, written by Ian Erskine at www.ftsincome.co.uk. The main concern I had when first reading this manual was the fact it was another variant on the Football Cash Generator and the laying the draw idea. It looks though, as if Ian qualifies the selections more specifically than the Football cash generator. He states “22% of the world’s football matches end in a draw – 7% goalless”. Far be it from me to question this, but did Mr Erskine really collect all of the world’s football matches to come up with this stat?
For seasoned football traders this manual will not be worth purchasing. Although we have been told that around 7% of games end goalless (and thus losers) we have no stats regarding how many games end 1-1 or even 1-0 to the underdog. As I have already explained, the favourites will be expected to score first – if it remains 1-0 for any length of time, how do we determine when we should trade out if we have the potential of the other team scoring first hanging over us?
Ian Erskine has impressed a couple of readers though with his football trading tips:
“The Elite Club costs £30 per month. This is, by far, the best football trading system I have come across, and I have “invested” (ahem) money on several. I attach a spreadsheet of my results, but just over 1K profit in 2 months is none too shabby. This has been done, in the main, by following Ian’s emailed recommendations.
The systems are easy to follow, but, like all footy trading, you do need to be at a computer whilst the matches are in-play, and this ties up weekend afternoons, and most evenings, should you want to play all Ian’s selections.”
So at least one reader is impressed and, more significantly, has profited. But I will reiterate that seasoned football traders will find all of these strategies a bit basic, and the laying the draw a bit familiar. Ian’s other systems are interesting and he is obviously a man with customer focus at the forefront. Personally, I like using my own strategies which will be flexible enough to take into consideration the match type (e.g. old firm meeting, must win euro 2008 qualifier, under 16’s unpredictable international football etc).
Review: Socabet
Available from www.socabet.com, this is another Betfair trading manual and, again, for those who do their research on each matches, from resources such as The Racing and Football Outlook, The Racing Post, www.betdevil.com or www.soccerstats.com, this manual may give you a few new ideas but these are not ideas that you cannot come up with yourself using a little imagination. The whole world of football trading is open to a myriad of different techniques based on your risk quotient (e.g. backing a heavy odds on team with underpant-changingly big stakes in the hope they score first to enable you to lay your bet at a lower price, or looking to exploit a small price change in the market as the game progresses and hoping to secure a tenner green screen), your experience and your knowledge.
The book does offer some interesting strategies that can be used exclusively for in-running football matches but. However, once again, these systems are mechanical in nature where, with in running trading, they should be reactive to the specific in running game. For example, Barcelona v Osasuna would be approached in a completely different manner to Bolton v Everton.
Another thing that niggles me is this book has a touch of the Stephen Brookes about it, you know “There are 183, 126, 74, 39, 15 copies left, do not miss out.” Well there have been 15 copies left for ages! And don’t forget the usual “Our Normal Price is £249.95 BUT! IF YOU ORDER TODAY THE PRICE WILL ONLY BE £199 £99 £49.95” Makes my blood boil! What’s more the testimonials are not from customers but affiliate partners!
BOTTOM LINE
Football trading should ideally be a personalised pursuit. Do a little lateral thinking and ask “what if?” To be successful, we should have a flexible attitude and narrow down our trading techniques to one or 2 which we will only use when the ideal opportunity arises. This is why, I guess, Ian Erskine has made the old lay the draw trade work for him. He’s narrowed down and qualifies his selections by price.
Football Betting Update!
Earlier I discussed how you can back a heavilyodds-on team at greater odds if the opposition scorefirst? Well, this didn’t quite happen with France andItaly recently, but I thought I’d recount these 2games which took place on the 17th October.
France V (Ahem) Lithuania
Yes, France backed into 1.09 (stake of £100 returns £9) to beat Lithuania at home. Expectation, price wise, is for a comfortable “va va voom” victory in this Euro 2008 qualifier. I was trading elsewhere at the time, and after my trades ended, I noticed France were at odds of 1.80 to back, when before the game they were 1.09! Ok I thought, the greed monster was gnawing at my ears, I’ll see if the mighty Lithuanians can hold out until a heavily odds-on shot gets to evens. Lo and behold France reached evens in about the 70th minute. I’m on – couldn’t resist it! And old Thierry Henry scored in the 78th minute and the 80th minute, which meant my back at evens, could be laid off at the magical 1.01!
Not only this, but world champions Italy were at home to the mighty South Africa (not quite as good as their rugby team) and again Italy were trading at over evens in running. Because it was a friendly, I was backing a 1/5 shot at over evens with a slightly lower stake. Lo and behold Italy score in the 82nd minute! And another guaranteed profit ensues! These bets are worth taking. France at evens against Lithuania with 20 minutes to go, playing at home in a must win game . . . Yes please!
SHORTIES CARNAGE
On the other side of the coin, remember the multiples idea? Laying those accumulators you once cherished so dearly? Well there was carnage in the recent UEFA Cup games with Liverpool losing, Celtic beating AC Milan, Anorthosis drawing at home to Spurs, Metallist beating Everton, and elsewhere Nantes drawing when 1/3 shots.
More recently, Euro 2008 and Republic of Ireland at 1/3 could only draw. Put this in with the other shorties and lay the accumulator and it’s a decent bet. Don’t forget the tennis – 1/6 shot Sharapova was mullered recently in the Moscow Tennis tournament.