How I Picked out 40/1 Winners and 100/1 Placed Horses by Following the ‘Late Money’
I hope you’ve seen the effectiveness of the 16/1 system (http://www.canonburypublishing.com/16to1): it’s a simple method of picking out horses who – to the casual observer – seem to have a relatively small chance of winning.
However when the live prices are compared to an independent betting forecast, we can unearth a horse who is quietly fancied, AND known by the bookies to be quietly fancied. These horses often run into a place, and better still win.
A recent example came in the 330 Yarmouth on 10th August in a shocking selling handicap race where By Storm’s price in the betting forecast of the Racing Post was 25/1. In the live betting market the horse opened up at 18/1 and went down to 16/1. Immediately I backed the horse each way and it came 2nd. The pay out for coming 2nd on Betfair was the equivalent of having a 6/1 winner. Mighty impressive!
On page 10, The Patriarch reveals an expansion of my 16/1 concept where we can unearth potential gambles at prices below 16/1. From my own personal experience this is a very effective system at identifying good priced and short priced horses who are clearly strongly fancied. Again, The Racing Post’s betting forecast and the live bookmakers’ prices are used, but there are other price markets we can exploit which can unearth winners as big as 40/1 and placed horses at 100/1 (yes I’ve experienced both!)
EXPLOITING THE TOTE
If you use The Racing Post’s betting site as your live feed, you’ll notice the inclusion of the TOTE’s prices for the win/place at the end of the column. The TOTE is an independent market, yet is still, naturally, influenced by money. It is the key 15 minutes before the race that reveal the “late money” put on a horse likely to run well (this is a phenomenon shared with the Betfair market as I will show later).
Following this late money can pay big dividends, but how do we go about this? Follow this step-by-step plan
1. Log on to http://www.totesport.com .
2. Click on “live totepool info”
3. Chose your course
4. Click on win/place
5. 15 minutes before the race begins, make a note of the prices in the “WIN” column. Just before the race is due to run, review these prices and note the horses with the biggest price gap between the prices 15 minutes before the off, and the prices just before the off.
6. The ideal here is to look for a big enough percentage movement in price. Calculate % odds for fractional odds as follows. Eg 6/4 6 divided by 4 = 1.5. Add 1 = 2.5. 100 divided by 2.5 = 40% Another example 2/1 = 2 divided by 1 = 2. Add 1 = 3 100 divided by 3= 33.33%. (The simple act of dividing the fractions and adding 1 turns them into their decimal equivalents – the prices used on the betting exchanges and US totes.)
7. Take the % odds 15 minutes before the race start from the % equivalent odds just before the off. If there is a difference of +8 or more, this becomes a bet. If the place odds are near to 2.00 then I would place the equivalent of an each way bet by backing the place and the win bet for the same odds.
EXAMPLE: We look at one race and note down the current Win prices 15 minutes or so before the off. Re-checking just before the off, we notice that one horse stands out. Odds 15 minutes before the off are 15.00 or 14/1. Re-checking just before the off, we notice these odds are now 8.00 or 7/1.
We need to know the difference between the 2 prices when they are converted to percentages:
14/1 as percentage is 14 divided by 1 + 1. 14 divided by 1 = 15 . 100 divided by 15 = 6.67%
7/1 as a percentage is 7 divded by 1 = 7 + 1 = 8. 100 divided by 8 = 12.5%
12.5% – 6.67% = 5.83%. As things stand this is not really a qualifying horse.
In the next race, one horse, priced at 6.00 or 5/1 15 minutes before the off, is now 4.00 or 3/1 just before the off. Following our steps convert the odds to percentages. The 5/1 horse is equivalent to 16.67%. The 3/1 is equivalent to 25%. So 25% – 16.67% = 8.33%. I would back this horse. If the place odds are near to 2.00 I will place bet and win bet.
You will be confronted with the screen at the top of the next column. The key figures are those in the “ Win” column. Here’s a quick glimpse of the above screen a few minutes afterwards
Can you see any potential market movers?
There are tote markets for Australian races, South African races and American races, so the formula is applicable globally. There are tote equivalent bookmakers in each jurisdiction; a simple google search eg tote South African racing – will unearth the bookmakers offering tote prices. Some of the US totes help us by offering -15 min -10 min -5 min price columns
Another independent betting market which becomes more accurate with increased liquidity is the Betfair market. How can we exploit price movements in this market? The key, as you should be aware of now, is to find a comparison between early prices and prices later on, just before the off. This is achievable using the Betfair market just before the off. The ideal races are the types of races where you wouldn’t normally entertain a bet, such as a big field seller, or competitive handicap, or maiden race with multiple debutants, novice/maiden hurdle race/ national hunt flat race. Follow the steps below
Bring up the Betfair race:
• Take a screen print of the price screen 15 minute/10 minutes before the off.
• Just before the race is due to go off, compare the prices from your screen print with the current live prices (remember to refresh your Betfair screen or use an application such as betangel which autorefreshes.)
• Make a note of the horses whose prices have shortened dramatically. Pay particular attention to perceived outsiders whose prices have reduced, say, from 250 to 180. On the face of it this may be normally dismissed by the majority of punters, but if this price continues to shorten, albeit by small increments, consider a place only bet (the odds for the place are likely to be great, sometimes up to 50/1). Focus especially on those races which are historically difficult for punters to figure out. Examples include maiden races with multiple debutants, big field handicaps, nursery races, claimers, national hunt flat races, maiden hurdle races. In fact, the worse the type of race, the better. Recent examples of successes for me include a 40/1 winner in a maiden race – an outsider whose odds of 250 reduced to 150 before the off. and a couple of 100/1 2nd places which paid out 50/1 equivalent for the place.
• Try to follow your selections in running as their prices do have a tendency of reducing considerably. Using what you know about trading price fluctuations, you can engineer a risk free bet, if the price reduces in running in response to a horse running above expectations.
This system may seem laborious and you will get a lot of erroneous bets which do nothing, but if you are so inclined, and want to paper trade, perhaps you can come up with further distinctions which can shape this system into a higher strike rate winning system.
Following the money can play an integral part in your betting success. I have always adhered to the maxim that all of the factors pertaining to a horse’s likely running are contained within the price, and this, coupled with market forces in the independent markets such as the Tote, Betfair, and the live bookmaker’s can point you in the directions to uncover your good priced winners and placed horses.