SYSTEMS AND TIPSTERS UPDATE
I mentioned Quick On The Draw from http://www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/ last month. Sso how has it performed in the interim? The system focuses specifically on a certain draw bias at Kempton’s all-weather course. It is very easy to use, so in that regard it gets the thumbs up. As hinted at in the website, Quick On The Draw’s long-term profits hinge upon hitting a big priced winner with enough frequency to account for the losing bets; you see, this system backs up to three selections in any qualifying race.
I began my trial on 21st September and there have only been eight meetings at Kempton from then to the time of writing. To level stakes we have, broken even. No gain and no loss. This is calculated using bookmaker SP, and as the author indicates, preference would be for Betfair prices, as with some of the bigger priced selections we will be backing at prices which are considerably bigger than bookmaker prices. With especially considering the winners have come at bookmaker’s SPs of 8/1, 10/1, 9/1, 5/1 and 2/1. As you can see though, with the fact that Quick On The Draw backs up to three selections per race, any losing run can quickly erode profit made. This is certainly a system to keep the right side of, and with the focus on Kempton, bets will be few and far between but the winter all-weather season should help in that respect.
The easy lay method
If you go to http://www.racing-index.com/ tipsters/tipster-performance.php and look for Horse4course race tips (LAY) you will see the frustration with this lay system at present. It just doesn’t seem to go anywhere and seems a terrible waste of time. This is a short-term reaction of course.
The results are calculated using FIXED
LIABILITY. This means that losses are controlled – you know in advance how much you will lose if any selection wins, BUT your returns will be compromised by price.
The bigger the price when laying to fixed liability, the smaller the return. The shorter the price laid, the better the return. A profit of 0.28 points since I began testing from 163 bets just seems too much work for too little reward. There are a lot of selections generally each day, and although this system really is simplicity itself, it is not profiting to the extent I personally would want for the effort expended.
The 5-Year consistency plan
Bad timing on my part I think! I received the 5 year consistency plan, (another from http://www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/,) on the 22nd September. The website relates three winners between the 15th-19th September at 25/1, 15/8 and 14/1. I have tracked these three horses down and, indeed, they were system bets on the 15th September, 18th September and 19th September, so this is interesting. The 25% strike rate tells you that this is a system which will be reliant on big priced winners coming along, such as those above.
Can you live with losing 75% of bets? Losing runs will be inevitable. Faith then rests with the hope of future big-priced horses to negate the expected losing runs.
I have spoken to system author Derek Nadin personally and he is certainly no fly-by-night. The system contains rules for the National Hunt season and rules separately for the Flat season. With the claimed big-priced winners being verified, this augurs well for the 5 Year Consistency plan as it stands with my short trial, and I will definitely be following this system and reporting back.
www.thetradingplan.co.uk/results.php
This tipping service makes use of the price movements near the off time in races and horses become qualifiers or non-qualifiers based on whether they hit a “target price”. This month gone, nonqualifiers, as they are termed, have accounted for winners priced 7/1, 8/1, 16/1, 7/2, 15/2 and 6/1. An impressive haul. Of course clarification is required as to whether these “non qualifiers” should be factored into betting. This will determine the success for those who have joined the service.
http://www.bettertipster.co.uk/
Bets are characterized by “just info” horses and official account bets.
The official account bets have had a poor run from September through to October but some profit has been clawed back with the last two account bets – five points win at 4/5 and 6 points win at 4/5. Since October 2009 began with wins at great prices 4/1 and 6/1 followed by eight no return bets and one each-way return bet. Two 2nd places extremely frustrating.
The just info is very interesting each day, and your profit and satisfaction will be determined by your choice of whether to back these selections or not. It looks as if the guys behind this service do have genuine information both in the UK and Ireland and this looks to be a genuine service worthy of following. However, I have had no experience with the service over the jumps.
http://www.kachinaracing.co.uk/
It would seem the website is taking something of a makeover. The results will be available for inspection and there are a wide variety of services to choose from which offer low entry costs.
You should know by now the vagaries of loss retrieval services, but another month with 100% strike rate. I will repeat what I said last month. As long as you are aware of the risks associated with loss retrieval, and accept that a losing day can lose a lot of profit gained, then this service has delivered to date. On the subject of loss retrieval services, please do beware of http://www.jcaracing.co.uk/. This is the reincarnation of the now defunct http://www.5startipster.co.uk/ which showed the poor side of loss retrieval tipping services. JCA Racing is best avoided.
Whilst on the subject of loss retrieval systems, here’s a report from David McLean on one which he was pleased with:
http://www.sportsbettingchamp.com/
This American Sports Betting System is from John Morrison and covers Basketball (NBA) and Baseball (MLB).
The MLB season runs from Apr-Oct and gives 40-50 selections. Teams will play each other three times in succession (bets A, B & C). This system went 49-0 in 2009 and 43-0 in 2008. The last time this had a losing C bet was in 2006.
This is straightforward betting. Your tip (called a pick in America) will look like the following: Oakland (A) v Seattle. Go to your betting account, check the odds and place your bet.
Meanwhile the NBA season runs from Nov-Mar and gives 70-80 picks. Again this system uses A, B and C bets. This system won 79-0 in 2008-09 and 80-1 in 2007-8.
The basketball system uses an advanced form of handicap betting which isn’t offered by any British bookmakers that I can find. You may get a pick such as: Washington (A) v Utah. Go to your American betting account where you can handicap bet Washington with a 6 point start for odds of 1.90. You can also “buy points” which means you buy an extra 2 or 3 points to give Washington an 8 or 9 point start. Of course the more points you buy the lower the odds you receive. Typically buying 3 points will reduce the odds to 1.50.
As this system uses loss retrieval I set a modest goal of winning only $10 per game on basketball and $20 per game on baseball. This helps keep losses reasonable if the C bet fails.
The system claims a 97% strike rate but remember this is per series, so bets A and B may lose, but C usually wins.
Note: There is also a bonus NFL betting system eBook provided when joining, but this system does not include email picks, unlike the baseball and basketball which do.
How much does it cost? Currently $197
Money saving tip: Go to ClickBank.com (it’s free to join) then buy this system using your affiliate link. You’ll receive a cheque for $100 as your affiliate commission. Note: Obviously this is in US dollars so you need to open a dollar account to bank it. This system is really only costing you $97. You’re also covered by ClickBank’s 60 day guarantee.
Websites
www.espn.com www.espn.mobi (To check the results using your mobile phone.)
Tip: Betfair and Ladbrokes offer the best prices on American sports.
Drawbacks
Having to open a US betting account to use the “buy points” option for basketball is a negative. Your account is kept in US dollars leaving you open to currency fluctuations. The website also claims to include picks for life, which is misleading as after 12 months using the system I was told the NBA bets were being upgraded to a new 2.0 version. Of course I would receive the old 1.0 version picks, but these would only be sent out 15 minutes before the game began! As most games begin after midnight UK time this was not a good option so I bought the new version for $125. The same stunt was pulled for the following MLB season. I dislike this as it’s misleading to offer a lifetime of picks when they fully intend to charge you each new season.
Conclusion
The high strike rate per series is genuine. You receive three eBooks explaining the system plus qualifying selections emailed to you for both basketball and baseball. The negatives already mentioned will bring my final rating down as there is simply no need for sneaky marketing tricks with a good system like this. Final score: 7 out of 10.
Many thanks to David for that report on another loss retrieval service that he has made work.
An 8 point profit since the last newsletter is welcome. This is a one-a-day lay service, and is something you can easily replicate for yourself to be honest. As I discussed in my One-A-Day update earlier, the expectation with one-a-day betting is for a high strike rate. After all, we are selecting just one bet a day. And remember, with laying, it is the equivalent of backing short odds on shots.
My own personal niggle there aside, at least the service is moving forward. This service costs £77 per month which is a little big for a one-a-day lay service. This must be factored into your laying stake to ensure that this amount is covered before you are able to realise a profit.
Tipsters and systems whose results are
online for your inspection
www.winnerstolosers.com’s results are updated to 30th September. www.sportsworldpublishing.co.uk/ResultsDodgy.pdf provide results for the Dodgy Favourites lay system which is being sold at Sportsworldpublishing.
Tipsters Track
I’ve am followed http://www.smartergambler.co.uk/ and http://www.soccer-laying-plus.co.uk/, both from the same guy and so far, the last months results are poor. You realise this when there is a clause enacted after a poor bad run for both of these services.
Both are football tipping services, focusing on backing and laying, but simply have not performed to date. Still, it is only fair to continue the testing as it is only October and there is plenty of football left to be played.
www.winningselections.co.uk is a general tipping service covering all events. It is another one-a-day service so, as I mentioned with Flatlays, the expectation on our parts should be for a decent strike rate. October has been very poor indeed. One of the saving graces of this service is its full transparency. Profits have been made regularly in previous months, and to be fair, October is the transitional period where the flat is winding down, and the jumps winding up. The results are fully available for inspection on the website and hide nothing. I will continue to monitor this service because I think, if previous-to-October results can be replicated, then profits will return. Once this service resumes its profitable ways then the £30 per month fee will look reasonable. I suspect it is better to keep a watching brief until some form has returned.
I warned you about this website last month, that it had all of the triggers that I was used to seeing with glossy brochure scam tipsters.
Well, he hasn’t disappointed. Wave bye bye to the 4/1 and above 75% strike rate and hello to the odds on shots (where did they come from? – I thought he didn’t back under 4/1!).
And so to the second part of the operation – the request to place bets on his behalf. This has occurred before and Mr. Walters has effectively followed the scam tipster blueprint to the letter. Avoid please!
TCS Publications of Newport, Wales
Beware of this lot who are operating the old small field scam, and have been found out, having given two friends two different horses in the same race as tips. This scam works by choosing a small field (say five horse race. They then split their targeted audience into five different sets, and provide the first set with one horse, the seond set with the second horse in the race and so on.
The set of people who happened to be given the winner will receive follow-up offers.