Witch Wind and Sonny Liston failed to place – the perils of soft ground betting allowing bigger priced horses to get the each way placings. This will probably be a regular occurence when the ground falls soft or heavy- a more speculative each way attitude can be taken.
Very good day nevertheless with Onenight inlisbon winning at 6/1 and Herecomes stanley at 3/1 ( both bigger prices on Betfair.. So we select eachw ays predominantly to place only BUT of course welcome these winners. More of the same please!
Interestingly the winners came where there were no ground concerns The big boys are out at Kempton but the prevalence of 7 runner races makes things difficult for each way backers – ready preference is for 8 runner fields as they pay out 3 the place and horses have, theoretically, only 5 to beat to place
330 KEMPTON
BETTING FORECAST: Evs Mickmacmagoole, 7/1 Rapscallion, 8/1 Lordsbridge, 12/1 King Fasliev, Maximix, 16/1 Imperial Harry, 20/1 Napoletano, Shaamit The Vaamit, 25/1 Hint Of Gold, Rawaabet, Raydan, 33/1 Factor Fifteen, Golden Square, Heebie Jeebie, Rosenblatt, 50/1 Black Cloud, Psychiatrist, Safin .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: Not as competitive as the numbers suggest and an ideal opportunity for MICKMACMAGOOLE to follow up last Friday’s comfortable Exeter success. Rapscallion heads the list of each-way alternatives
Installed as fav again based on an easy last win – remember winners in handicaps always go up in weight. Mick Mac is top weight here and we have conditional jockeys in the saddle – not the ideal. 11 of the 18 runners are 33/1 or bigger in the betting forecast, and Mickmac will find it more difficult to win today.
On the plus side he won in a conditional jockeys handicap last time under John Flavin. This screams out place only bet with 4 the place. You will, of course, get evens or over given the race type and field size and he may be worth the investment but we know all about big fields and potential hazards. Add to this the ground being good to soft and this being the last race of the day, I’ll leave the decision up to you.
YES – won readily in similar race last time for same jockey – potential quantity over quality race with 11 runners at 33/1 or bigger betting forecast. Significant price gap – progressive form this jumps season
NO – big field=potential mistakes -conditionaljockeys lack tactical nouse – good to soft ground and last race of day in ground which may cut up due to previous races
100 SEDGEFIELD
BETTING FORECAST: 5/2 Coronado´s Gold, 4/1 Arctic Cove, 9/2 All In, 5/1 Bold Pioneer, 6/1 Mr Ex, 10/1 Ginger´s Star, 12/1 Tammy, 16/1 Cwm Chwefru .
SPOTLIGHT VERDICT: CORONADO’S GOLD (nap) should be able to stretch his stamina to win at this level and he gets the vote. All In will be suited by a return to this ground and could be best of the remainder.[EMW]
I thought I’d share this one as a potential each way race (8 runners) but one which doesn’t pass my inspection! The first sign of an open race is the price of the perceived outsider -16/1 – hardly an outsider’s price.
There is no noticeable price gap between place prospects at 4/1 to 6/1 and the perceived outsiders – Ginger’s star cannot be safely discounted at 10/1 and, as already referred to, the 2 outsiders are 12/1 and 16/1 indicating they’re not quite the ” write them off” outsiders. So a no bet race but I thought I’d give my reasonings
One of those days today alas – either the fields are too big, or they’re too small. Remember, the bookie has to price up every race but we have the advantage of being selective .
FOOTY
Champions League this evening may offer some respite
Man Utd take on Sporting Lisbon after Fergie did a “Rafa” at the weekend and shuffled the pack ,and the team looked lacklustre to be honest.
Tevez doesn’t seem to click without Rooney. They are odds on to beat Sporting Lisbon this evening at Old Trafford and generally get the job done. I would like to see the team sheet before deciding on a wager. After the debacle at Bolton, Fergie will not want to lose this match but Sporting may prove tough opposition. A lay of Sporting for me – I cannot see Man Utd losing this.
Lyon are at home to BArcelona who are odds against -an appealing 11/8. Barca have taken time to break opponents down domestically and their away form is bad in all competitions. Lyon are worth a lay at 8/5 I think, with one eye on trading.
You remember my last mug punter accumulator was let down by Man Utd ( see why I advocate laying accumulators!) well, I’m at it again with Inter and Watford standing out-the double paying just over evens.
No doubt one team will draw as is the case with accumulators when yours truly gets stuck in
Stuttgart v Rangers looks interesting from an under 2.5 goal trade perspective. The containing job Rangers did against Barca could be replicated tonight as they look to adopt another defensive formation. One up top means a diminished goal threat for Rangers, and the defensive line up could present a tough hurdle for Stuttgart – that’s the theory anyway – watch out for 3-3 halftime!!
Arsenal are a big price 11/4 away to Sevilla who lost to Majorca at the weekend indicating their favourite status might be at risk. If Arsenal are to do it, I see it being by only one goal
Arsenal +0.5 goals on the ASian HAndicap at 1.82 looks reasonable
Arsenal +0.5 If Arsenal draw or win to £100 stake we win £82
If Sevilla winwe lose £100
A lay of Sevilla/Sevilla HAlf time/full time at 3.85 is generally short enough to get involved in for small stakes.
From a sequencing perspective, Swansea and Hartlepool have drawn their last 2 games, albeit not recent meetings. Looking at it from a purely sequencing perspective and nothing else, perhaps a lay of the draw here might pay off?
Notts Forest – backing the correct scores market 1-0 (odds of 7.8), 2-0 (odds of 7.2) and 2-1 (odds of 10) on Betfair may be a way in for those put off by the match odds.
Lincoln have not scored away from home in the last 2 outings. Forest have scored 2 clear goals last 2 home games – so 2-1 has to be included. To be honest you could also back Lincoln at 13 to win outright and the draw at 5.5.
So odds would be
7.8
7.2
10
13.5
5.5
Because the lowest odds are 5.5, we can back all of the above to level stakes and still profit if one of them comes in ( a slight break even position on the draw) You may like to leave the draw out to enhance payouts. It looks an interesting bet ( cue 3-1 Forest!)